Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[jotoha1] 03/5/2005 09:36

Last night Danky was $1.30 per share....... whats the corrolation between that and the UK price of 17p????????????????????

[geng] 28/4/2005 18:21

The "Chucks" and other misc losers are back on the Yahoo.com Danky board. Although they are all mad, crude and anoying - Its usually a good signal to buy.

Not sure what their real agenda is but they have a real uncanny knack of turning up just before most of the big rises.

[lowtrawler] 27/4/2005 12:11

Now we're here I would say DNK are fairly valued. Still a high risk investment but with potentially high rewards. The risk / reward balance I believe is now about right.

[nwmadden] 22/4/2005 10:28

Big spread though, isn't it? MM's trying to disuade people from jumping in?

[lowtrawler] 20/4/2005 17:05

It's bouncing around what I think will be the bottom - $1.25 per ADR. However, that depends on the overall market not crashing which seems a distinct possibility. I am now 99% invested in cash and will sit the markets out for the next few weeks.

[hybrasil] 20/4/2005 16:16

is this it?

[she-ra] 19/4/2005 13:26

Lowtrawler - Frightening.
Thanks Lowtrawler.

[lowtrawler] 19/4/2005 12:48

Figures per Q3 announcement:
Non-equity shareholders funds (preference share debt) = (£163,166,000)
Net Debt = (£76,239,000)
Total Net Debt = (£239,405,000)

Increase in preference share debt since Q3 (it rolls up) = (£3,500,000)

Total current debt assuming other movements are cash neutral = £242.9m

All figures in sterling.

[she-ra] 19/4/2005 12:17

Lowtrawler - Are you sure the nebt debt is not $243m not '£'243m?

[shirishg] 19/4/2005 05:40

Post removed by ADVFN

[bertybassett] 18/4/2005 23:48

This is the quote that i was trying to find out more about.

'The group has entered into an agreement with a printer manufacturer to
provide warranty and maintenance services.'

As the manufacturers do not wish to be known yet we can only guess, but its not so much a case of who, but what..what size is the deal?

We still have the restructuring charge to come next quarter but the bond debt of $64m doesnt have to paid until 2008 which they say they are in line to do, the bigger debt in 2010 of course is a different story.

[hamidahamida] 14/4/2005 12:20

back to 10pppppppppppppppppppppppppppppp

[lowtrawler] 13/4/2005 16:49

The £243m is sterling - so $457m dollars = $557m / $1.2bn. The trouble is, DNK are unable to make money on that level of turnover with this level of debt. The turnover is valuable to competitors and can generate more money to them than to DNK. Thus, I expect the possibility of a takeover to support the price. And no, the direction of the next price movement is not always 50:50. I have previously suggested that the lowest I can see DNK falling to is $1.25 per ADR. I stick by this number, on the basis that a takeover is a possibility. I believe it's ceiling will be around $5 even with a takeover. Trouble is, it is dangerous to rely on a takeover to support the price. They are already struggling to fund the debt and in the absence of a takeover could go bust. DNK is cheap but it's cheap for a reason.

[bertybassett] 13/4/2005 16:44

Did phone the company but the FD gone home unwell. Hope there will be a news release soon as there have been some more changes but they may wait to include in next quarter reporting. Strange the sells today at this stage of the game unless they purchased them over 2 years ago when they were 12p!

Would like better odds Geng than 50:50 but then Im sure like you said the efficiency thing will kick in soon, they closed some offices which some of the leases have only just run out on and had the cost of redundancies/ restructuring etc. so very positive now.

[geng] 13/4/2005 13:26

Lowtrawler,

Still not a bad deal £1.2bn Turnover for $350m - there are a lot worse equations within the competition. Still doesn't make any sense to me - things are the same if not better than the last few times the price has been around $5.

Ok patience may be wearing thin with some private investors but why are the institutions holding more than they have for 5 years ?

Sooner or later the efficiency/turnover thing will come right and then this price will be a distant memory.

PS It's always 50:50 where a price goes form anywhere ?

[lowtrawler] 13/4/2005 09:13

geng

Don't forget the net debt of £243m including preference shares. Gives a slightly different twist to your $100m / $1.2bn equation. It looks to me as though we are going to stay around the $1.50 - $1.60 range for a while. 50:50 as to where it will move after that.

[bertybassett] 12/4/2005 18:48

Thanks geng very informative. Have decided to get back in as i feel a few things are coming together from their restructuring. Will also see if i can get an update from them tomorrow.

[geng] 12/4/2005 18:40

bertybassett,

The UK Price is directly linked to the US price (1 ADR's = 4 UK Share) and the exchange rate. To calculate the UK Price divide the US price by 4 and the by the exchange rate ie:- $1.53 / 4 / $1.88 = 20.3p

Does finally look like we've hit the bottom - but as always with Danka you never can tell. I've been buying all the way down from 40p (where I originally thought the bottom was from historical trading and charts). $1.2 Billion in revenue with a market cap of less that $100 Million. Won't take too much of an increase in revenue and profits to really make this fly.

[bertybassett] 11/4/2005 23:14

Zedder - As a global US company are DNK totally dependant on the performance of the US? ie: if the European/Asia operations are very successful, would that not affect the total share price here independant of the US? Good to see we've also had more buying volume over the last 2 weeks

[zedder] 11/4/2005 16:14

There has been consistently good volume in the USA since it went sub-$2. I am convinced the Institutions are building their positions further. When the quarterly updates to the figures on the NASDAQ site start to come through (should be approx end of April), the picture will be clearer. Institutions hold 29% at present.

[bertybassett] 06/4/2005 12:56

Seems to have been a slight improvement - anyone still in?

[shortermer1] 01/4/2005 08:29

closed up 16% in the US last night. Only up 6% here though.

Thanks,

ST

[lowtrawler] 30/3/2005 15:57

It's an 18.2p mid-price in the USA just now. We could see a reduction to 16p mid but I would be tempted to call the bottom if it hit $1.25 per ADR.

[lowtrawler] 29/3/2005 09:53

chestnuts

Net debt is £243m - £167m in preference shares and £76m with banks. This makes it highly geared and accounts for the huge swings in share price. If you were to apply fundamental valuation analysis to DNK, you would identify the need to generate around £25m profit after tax and interest before the shareprice becomes positive. Each £5m increase beyond that level, adds about £50m to the value of the company. Hence, the current shareprice anticipates sustainable after tax and interest profits of c. £30m. For the year to 31 March 2005, they appear to be heading towards a loss of around £20m (taking interest on the preference shares into account). Thus, DNK need to generate an additional £50m p.a. on a sustainable basis to justify the current price. This seems a tall order. However, DNK do have significant turnover and could be integrated with a lot of savings into some of their competitors. This makes them attractive as a takeover target and is likely to sustain the price around 15p - 20p.

[chestnuts] 28/3/2005 16:47

Zedder i must also say if and when it begins to turn it could go to at least the mid 4os very quickly