Ct Property Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 03/8/2022 07:22

Granted, we only tend to see the good stuff (why sell a building at a loss), but this from CREI this morning shows how much life there could be left in Industrials:

"Custodian REIT (LSE: CREI), the UK property investment company focused on smaller lot-sized regional property, is pleased to announce the disposal of an industrial unit in Milton Keynes for £8.5 million at a 73% premium to its 31 March 2022 valuation."

[spectoacc] 02/8/2022 09:03

Indeed - £3.2k energy cap, likely going up to £4k in spring. We're in the eye of the storm over summer.

Very sceptical of Trussconomics, and what it could mean for the 3% base rate peak (5%? 6%?).

On the other hand, commods are down already, even oil. How cutting taxes hits the £ may have more effect.

Back to CTPT - if/when 14 Berkeley St goes, the % in offices drops still further (not sure what the car showroom on the ground floor is classed as - Other?). Not so many years ago a super-prime yield was 4%, if they get it away at 3.3% then great - borrowing costs could go higher than that.

Losing £1m of rent to gain £30m for some buybacks would be perfect.

[nickrl] 01/8/2022 22:04

With the energy price cap threatened at over 3k can't see how we won't avoid some sort of recession now although Truss seems determined to really shake the magic money tree down to its roots so maybe not too deep but not sure that strategy bodes well for the long term.

[spectoacc] 01/8/2022 20:02

Been adding to the REITs yet to bounce, but have gone for more CTPT too. BCPT's NAV today suggests we'll get perhaps +5p on the CTPT NAV reported this month, plus the chance of VIP's selling finishing before too long, plus a sale of the giant 14 Berkeley St, plus the new manager hitting the ground running, plus the former finally giving the funds for a sustained buy back a la BCPT.

So 133p NAV, a significant realisation, and a buy back going forward.

I just think CTPT's too cheap, but I would say that - over-long even before recent falls.

Downsides? The many buyers of the VIP stake will likely be sellers all the way up, holding back the price. The big Industrials NAV rises may/have to fizzle out soon. Berkeley St may not find a buyer (it will), which would mean no buy back, because they simply don't have the cash atm. Full-on recession may hit before the bull points come to pass. The markets may tank and drag everything with it. Putin may nuke Kyiv. Liz Truss may nuke Moscow, or probably London, or more likely the UK finances & £.

Long, longer, and even longer CTPT. Good luck holders. HoDL.

[spectoacc] 01/8/2022 14:24

Looks like 1,250,000 out, 1,220,000 in (trades reported 15 seconds apart), but really hard to know for sure. I'd guess VIP have ditched another c.2,730,000 since last Tuesday's RNS showing them as having 8.5m to go, taking them to the "Below 3%" threshold at next RNS at c.5m. That's the 1m block the other day, this morning's 500k, + 1,230,000.

A good sign they're going out at these higher prices - c.77p was looking painful.

Heck, they may even break even on some of them.

[skyship] 01/8/2022 14:20

At 12:39 almost 2.5m trade at 82p. Lot long now before we will see the back of the inept VIP!

[nickrl] 01/8/2022 10:33

500k just reported off market at @82p presumably someone picking up some of last weeks? See if it elicits an RNS

[spectoacc] 01/8/2022 10:08

Wary of talking it up when we think/know there's far more stock still to be sold by VIP, but interesting to see stablemate BCPT report +3.2% NAV on the qtr, of which Industrials/logistics were again the standout, up 5%. CTPT's main sector:


"Industrial and logistics, comprising 33.7 per cent of the portfolio, delivered the strongest gains in the quarter with values increasing by 5.0 per cent. This reflected some further yield compression albeit at much reduced rates. The occupational markets remain strong, demonstrated by rental value growth with the sector recording historically low rates of available of space."

The smaller REITs can't continue these NAV gains indefinitely (+20% annualised on Industrials, & was even higher earlier), but they haven't topped out yet, & inflation is going to help to some extent. Real assets, at a time when RPI is 11.8%.

VIP - wondering if they've paused selling.

Edit! 500K through at 82p 7 minutes after posting :) Seems a high price to be a VIP sell, but then again - someone's on the other side of it, so I'd wager it's them.

[skyship] 27/7/2022 21:10

Really no mystery:

1. VIP buys 6%

2. VIP on its way to selling all

Zero bad news; only good in terms of Q2'22 valuation gains; new manager and maybe, just maybe, sale of their Mayfair property.

The VIP volte-face is a buying opportunity which the BoD should act upon - buy-in the remaining VIP stake and increase our NAV in doing so. Not to do so would show a serious lack of ambition.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[riverman77] 27/7/2022 20:46

It's a well-diversified, modestly geared property fund, so very unlikely for anything really bad to come out - the worst case scenario would be some sort of tenant default, but even that wouldn't be the end of the world. Really don't see anything to worry about here (famous last words).

[flyer61] 27/7/2022 20:32

I agree with you Spec. The share price would have tanked more if there was seriously bad news out there...

[alan pt] 27/7/2022 20:28

Yeah, fair point, wasn't thinking about the liquidity. OK, maybe it looks stupid in foresight too :)

[spectoacc] 27/7/2022 20:14

CTPT isn't remotely liquid, if they thought they might need the money again soon, they could have put it into any of the huge REITs, or even BCPT or UKCM. 14.5m shares! Nuts.

The fear is that VIP know something, to make them reverse so soon. Personally I think VIP know nothing.

[alan pt] 27/7/2022 18:22

I guess if VIP had kept it as cash then they would have had shareholder grumbles too (look at EPIC)

CTPT probably looked like a pretty safe parking place with a bit of potential upside at the time, only looks stupid in hindsight

[riverman77] 27/7/2022 15:49

nickel - I suspect what's happened is VIP sold off the (non property) equity portfolio and as an interim measure switched into some property equities, with the view to selling these once direct property sales where ready to complete. Would have been better off just keeping it in cash as they must have lost quite a bit on CTPT. Wouldn't be too happy if I were a shareholder.

[flyer61] 27/7/2022 15:06

Well I have increased my holding this am at 80.6.

No idea what VIP have been up to but that discount on assets I would like to own is just to great...

A divi rise would be nice.

[skyship] 27/7/2022 14:01

Specto - sent you a private message

[spectoacc] 27/7/2022 12:05

1m at 80p earlier, so now 7.5m - maybe. Is possible it's another delayed trade (up to 3 days), and that it was one from VIP's move from 12,024,504 to 8,500,000.

Certainly can't see the 1m being distributed elsewhere on the trades today.

Generally feels a good sign that CTPT's holding around 80p on VIP's continual selling.

After the next RNS to below 3%, we'll no longer know how many VIP have to sell - nor necessarily from the trades, if they are indeed taking advantage of the delayed reporting rules.

[alan pt] 27/7/2022 09:48

The boat is very much still there - 37% discount at 81p (and that's before the NAV update to come soon)

[spectoacc] 27/7/2022 09:08

I'm biased, but it's decidedly cheap. However, VIP have 8.5m more to sell IMO, so might yet get cheaper. Yesterday's trade (possibly reported late) was done at 77p.

[dlp6666] 27/7/2022 09:05

Is it still worth buying more at today's level (c.81p) or have I missed the boat?

[spectoacc] 27/7/2022 06:54

@riverman77 - yes, but that was the case pre-CTPT stake. VIP can do what they want of course, and seem to have decided the money in CTPT is better spent buying VIP shares, but in that case why invest it for a loss in the first place.

But agree it's a pricing anomaly, albeit one I wish didn't happen when I already have so many :)

(@nickrl - looks about right to me, were 2x 450k in a day, another 450k, and the 996k yesterday, since the last RNS. 8.5m to go?).

[nickrl] 26/7/2022 23:40

riverman they built up this stake earlier this year and prior to that they were off loading their non property equity portfolio. Doesn't make sense they are selling at a loss so unless they have some high yielding property acquisitions lined up.

[riverman77] 26/7/2022 21:56

Out of interest had a quick look at this VIP fund and turns out they are transitioning to a purely direct property portfolio, having previously held a mix of direct property and equities. Explains why they are looking to offload CTPT, even at such a silly price as they probably have some properties lined up to purchase. Creates a nice pricing anomaly though, which should see a good 5-10% uplift once they are finally out.

[nickrl] 26/7/2022 20:49

badtime that RNS reveals VIP down another 1.46% to 3.53% which is lower than i was expecting.