Ct Property Share Discussion Threads

[belgraviaboy] 24/5/2023 08:10

Added a few

[skyship] 24/5/2023 07:45

Well done CTPT holders. Missed this one; but expect this won't be the last of the sector takeovers. Hopefully API next!

[cwa1] 24/5/2023 07:35

Agreed specto re NAV...however a LOT of the REITs are valued on plunging discounts anyway!

Nice RNS to wake to :-)

[spectoacc] 24/5/2023 07:24

Well done shareholders, albeit my tiny remaining holding is in someone else's a/c and isn't much better than b/e in capital terms.

Recommended, yet well below NAV, same as CSH. NAV simply isn't the metric to look at when valuing REITs now, other than for LTV/covenant purposes.

[neilyb675] 24/5/2023 07:21

RECOMMED ALL-SHARE OFFER FOR

CT PROPERTY TRUST LIMITED ( "CTPT" )

BY

LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY PLC ( "LONDONMETRIC" )

to be effected by means of a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement

under Part VIII of the Companies Law of Guernsey

Summary

-- The boards of directors of LondonMetric and CTPT are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended all-share offer pursuant to which LondonMetric will acquire the entire issued and to be issued share capital of CTPT (the "Acquisition").

-- Under the terms of the Acquisition, CTPT Shareholders will be entitled to receive:
for each CTPT Share: 0.455 New LondonMetric Shares
-- On the basis of the Closing Price per LondonMetric Share of 188.0 pence on 23 May 2023 (the "Latest Practicable Date"), the Acquisition values each CTPT Share at 85.5 pence and the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of CTPT at approximately GBP198.6 million.

-- The Acquisition represents:
o a premium of approximately 34.3 per cent. to the Closing Price per CTPT Share of 63.7 pence on the Latest Practicable Date;

o a premium of approximately 33.2 per cent. to the three-month volume weighted average price per CTPT Share of 64.2 pence (being the volume weighted average Closing Price for the three-month period ended on the Latest Practicable Date); and

o on a NTA-for-NTA basis, a discount of approximately 6.3 per cent. to CTPT's last reported EPRA NTA per CTPT Share of 96.6 pence as at 31 March 2023 based on LondonMetric's last reported EPRA NTA per LondonMetric Share of 198.9 pence as at 31 March 2023.

-- Following completion of the Acquisition, existing LondonMetric Shareholders will hold approximately 90.3 per cent. and CTPT Shareholders will hold approximately 9.7 per cent. of the enlarged issued share capital of LondonMetric.

-- It is intended that the Acquisition will be effected by means of a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement under Part VIII of the Companies Law of Guernsey (the "Scheme").

[hugepants] 19/5/2023 15:41

Hmm. I hold about equal amounts of CTPT and API. CTPT is on a 6.4% yield and a 35% discount but could possibly increase the dividend by 10% and still be covered. API would have to reduce theirs by 10%+ to be covered. CTPT has a lower LTV and a much more attractive debt profile. I also prefer their portfolio slightly. It has less offices and more retail warehouses. Swings and roundabouts maybe but I don't necessarily regard API as better value.

[skyship] 19/5/2023 13:35

Watching to re-join at some stage; but better value elsewhere:

Plenty of dry powder after cashing out of EBOX above 69p yesterday morning - a very nice bounce of 21% from their crazy low a few weeks ago.

Some of that cash went into a top-up in API - the one that looks to be the BEST BUY pick of the REITs at the moment. At 49.2p the discount there is 40.3% and the yield 8.13%. It's another of the generalist players like AEWU, CTPT, CREI, PCTN, SREI...

[flyer61] 19/5/2023 07:47

Which is fine by me HughPants as i'm more interested in the whole picture here.

[hugepants] 18/5/2023 12:28

Must admit to adding here. I think its best positioned of all the reits with its portfolio composition, yield, dividend cover, LTV of only 22.5% and debt fixed at 3.36% until Nov 2026.

It will be interesting to see if the dividend is increased. Dividend cover was 108.5 per cent at interims and last trading update had net revenue of 1.3p (versus dividend of 1p). So an increase of 5%-10% looks possible. I suspect they'll hold off for now though.

[flyer61] 16/5/2023 11:36

I’m sure good things will come to holders here in due course….

[nickrl] 26/4/2023 09:51

No change in void level is good and they've added just under 0.1m to contracted rent further improving divi cover to one of the highest amongst the reit sector so we ought to get an increase here.

[speedsgh] 26/4/2023 07:19

Trading Update and Net Asset Value -

Headlines

~ Net Asset Value (“NAV”) per share of 96.6 pence and NAV total return of +2.4% for the quarter ended 31 March 2023.
~ Share Price total return of -5.2% for the quarter ended 31 March 2023 (64.0 pence per share).
~ £90 million term loan at a fixed rate of 3.36% until November 2026. Cash reserves of £30.8 million and access to a rolling credit facility of £20 million which is currently undrawn.
~ Quarterly dividend maintained at 1.0p per share, paid on 31 March 2023.
~ As of 31 March 2023, the portfolio occupancy rate was 97.0% by estimated rental value (“ERV”).
~ Portfolio valuation movement of +0.8% over the quarter, supported by increase in values of industrial and retail warehousing portfolios.

... Matthew Howard, Fund Manager, CT Property Trust, commented:

Following the rapid repricing of real estate in the second half of 2022, the early part of 2023 has shown a stabilisation in yields for some property sub sectors. Industrial/logistics property and retail warehousing in particular is attracting renewed investor interest. There were early signs in December that the market was emerging from a period of ‘pricing discovery’ with an uptick in investment activity following the relative market paralysis between September to November. These cautious steps have continued into Q1 with investment activity gathering pace as we head into the spring. Increasing confidence in real estate pricing has been supported by the stability in 10-year UK government bonds, which over the past 5 months have trended around the 3.5% level (having peaked at 4.6% in September) meaning the pricing margin to UK real estate is closer to the generally accepted long term risk premia.

As such, yields for resilient assets and sectors have seen some marginal appreciation since the start of the year suggesting that the worst is behind us for ‘relevant’ real estate. This is reflected in the capital return of our industrial and retail warehouses (representing 77.9% by value of the portfolio), which were +0.8% and +2.5% respectively. We also saw a small rebound of +0.7% in our high street assets, a sector that has been largely repriced in recent years and offers an attractive income return for the portfolio. As always, the markets remain nuanced. Prime offices, of high quality, strong amenity and ESG credentials have seen some value stabilisation, but we expect values for offices of a quality below the best-in-class to remain under pressure owing to the ongoing uncertainties and structural risk repricing for this property segment. Our offices saw capital loss of -1.6% over the period.

The MSCI monthly data indicates that All-Property capital values moved -1.2% at a market level for Q1 2023. This may reflect a degree of overhang from Q4, with March showing positive capital movements on a monthly basis for the first time since June 2022. The quarterly data, which reflects a larger pool of funds, will be released in a few weeks.

In context of the recent economic backdrop, we have spoken much of the continued positive news within the occupational markets. At a market level, we saw rental growth within the logistics market in excess of 10% over 2022, with vacancy rates remaining at near record lows nationally. Trading within retail warehouses now exceeds that of pre-pandemic levels and, as a format, is attractive to retailers as part of omni channel sales strategies, a trend which has caused a headache for shopping centres and high street assets.

Our investment strategy to focus on resilient locations, smaller assets and active management will be key to our performance as markets continue to adopt a cautious view of the year ahead. Occupiers, although proving resilient, are still navigating inflationary pressures and the full effects of consumer credit squeeze are perhaps yet to be completely felt. Against this backdrop, we remain confident in our conviction position to industrial and retail warehousing and the prospects for portfolio income and capital growth in the near term.

[frazboy] 22/3/2023 07:49

Nick, you made me recheck the report. 10% may be an exaggeration but presumably the interest income will rise a bit further for the next 6 month period (£400k?) and we’ll have some positive rent reviews (offset by potential voidage). It’ll be a close call but they should be forced to increase it a little. Less than 5% would be disappointing but given how conservative they seem to be it wouldn’t be a surprise if it’s the bare min to get past the 90% payout rule.

[nickrl] 21/3/2023 18:53

@frazboy the current dividend isn't covered by cash earnings so not sure how they can raise dividend from here. Also given they have 32m of cash im pretty disappointed that only accrued 227k of interest income which is c0.7%. About time they get on with investing the cash so we can improve the divi.

Edit: error in my translation from the RNS to my s/sht and im incorrect the divi is covered at the cash level and all things remaining equal by FY should be scope for a modest divi increase.

[frazboy] 21/3/2023 07:45

Reading that report I see no reason - other than to conserve cash - that the dividend can't be increased by, say, 10%. In fact, according to REIT rules they'll have to up it slightly to ensure they pay out 90%.

[skyship] 02/2/2023 16:25

Hadn't expected a fall of that magnitude, so have reduced to just a 3.5% allocation, breaking even in doing so. This compares with an 11% allocation to the winners (for me at any rate) of EBOX, EPIC & SERE.

[flyer61] 02/2/2023 16:00

Thanks, I am thinking of adding. Ultimately I want to be in industrials for the ultra long term

[nickrl] 02/2/2023 09:16

They continue to get the money in have no vacancy increase and the dividend is covered thats good enough for me but wont be adding.

[spectoacc] 02/2/2023 08:05

The Industrials weighting benefited them greatly on the way up, & in fairness it's still not a bad sector to be in, trading-wise.

And over time, trading-wise is all that really matters.

Surely a fall of more than a quarter, in a single quarter, if not for the sale of 14 Berkeley St. All credit to them for that sale.

Not a holder.

[hugepants] 02/2/2023 07:56

Ouch. NAV down to 95.4p. Similar drop to UKCM yesterday.

[riverman77] 27/1/2023 11:45

Yes it only shows companies registered with the AIC as investment companies - it misses a few of the general REITs such as Picton and pretty much all the larger REITs (Segro, British Land, etc)

[alan pt] 26/1/2023 17:25

Strange article - they go to the trouble of compiling the tables, then the article ends up recommending LAND, AGR, GRI and LXI (yes, LXI again!)

@riverman77 The AIC website is pretty good, though it does miss the odd one which isn't an AIC member. There aren't many, but NRR is one that I remember

[riverman77] 26/1/2023 16:47

You know you can find that info on a daily basis on the excellent AIC website?

[orinocor] 26/1/2023 16:07

I had a peek at Shares magazine today. There is a section on reits and a table with the ones on the biggest discount to NAV. CTPT tops the list.

[skyship] 26/1/2023 14:28

Indeed - Trading Update & NAV was 24th Jan las year, so s/b next week.