Ct Property Share Discussion Threads

[alan pt] 06/7/2022 16:03

Getting very close to breaking down through 80p now, someone really wants to sell

[cwa1] 05/7/2022 16:08

Decided to take a few-but leave some powder dry for any further significant falls. Off for that lie down now...

[spectoacc] 05/7/2022 15:20

Agree re recession - high oil prices will do the job of interest rates - but whether tenants hold the cards depend on the sector IMO. Certainly do with offices; Industrial, probably Retail Parks both likely to be OK.

The strangest thing about the current downturn/impending downturn is unemployment - there's now more vacancies than job seekers. I wonder how much of that is down to too-generous pensions, and people retiring in their 50's.

[Edit - oil off nearly $10 today, maybe spoke too soon].

[nickrl] 05/7/2022 14:45

Frazboy with recession now flashing red bond market has retrenched a fair bit so expects BoE and even fed to peak much lower on this cycle. With energy costs squeezing the life out of the consumer its probably realistic to expect BoE to keep increments down at 0.25%/rise and to limit the peak to enough to be shown to being doing something but not enough to blow up the housing mkt. So i'd say the real risk is where you see rents/yields headed and im more circumspect on them over next 12-18mths with tenants holding most of the cards.

[spectoacc] 05/7/2022 14:33

Agreed. And worse - CTPT looks great value, but then so does much of the sector.

Remains my largest holding tho. HODL.

[alan pt] 05/7/2022 14:02

I'm having the same problem with a lot of things at the moment
"Do I think this represents good value?" Yes
"Can I see it dropping another 20%?" Yes

[frazboy] 05/7/2022 13:32

A question. I know some folk are expecting further NAV rises but doesn't the future discount rate (e.g. long term rates) affect the (red book?) valuations? In other words, maybe the cycle has turned and a modest NAV fall is to be expected?CWA1 - I would go lie down, I bought some yesterday and wished I hadn't

[spectoacc] 05/7/2022 13:32

Both - buy it, then go away and lie down :)

[cwa1] 05/7/2022 13:27

I'm starting to feel a little bit tempted here. Should I do something about it- or just go and lie down until it passes? :-?

[spectoacc] 04/7/2022 20:52

I'm very overweight CTPT, but as per @nexusltd above, expecting further decent NAV increases.

All my REITs well down from recent highs - SREI, UKCM, BCPT etc. Recession (or worse) is coming, property values have been pumped by 10+ years of ZIRP, interest rates are rising.

4.5% divi when borrowing costs c.2.5%, interest rates 0.25%, inflation 1.5% - great.

4.5% divi when borrowing likely heading above 4%, interest rates to perhaps 3%, and inflation is already over 11% - not so great.

Not so long ago your bog-standard Industrial yield was 15%. But those days are past IMO - the sheer amount of debt in the system makes 6% base rate the new 15%, with yields adjusted accordingly.

The market looks ahead, and has already discounted a lot. What's the top for discounts - 40%? Higher? No REIT I know of has any pressing debt rescheduling, all are on low borrowing costs, low LTV. Almost all will show another qtr of rising NAVs.

IMO what the market is missing is that 11% RPI benefits real assets, which the REITs have in abundance.

A counter is - if you want property in your portfolio, why not buy PSN on a 12.5% yield. Everything's gone down, & the alternatives are suddenly cheap too.

[nexusltd] 04/7/2022 18:37

According to the UK CBRE stats for April & May; though industrials, retail park and retail capital growth is slowing they will still make a positive contribution in Q2. Office is very slowly improving. Logically I can only conclude that, despite poor market sentiment, we can expect further positive progress in the NAV for this name. If the market is concerned about NAV regression for Q2, it is wrong. If the market frets that higher interest rates erode the relative value of REIT yields on offer, then it has a point in the short term. I believe, that with a time lag, yields will increase markedly with inflation. This time lag being shorter for names with short lease contracts. OTH if there is a severe recession then, evidently, all bets are off.

[nickrl] 04/7/2022 18:02

I know logistics sentiment took a hit when Amazon called time on their big box expansion as well as a fair amount of capital thats chased down the yield or invested in new distribution hubs which accounts for the likes of LMP setback. So guess some mirroring here.

That said the industrials element contributed most to NAV uplift at Q1 and won't be repeated in Q2 imv. Likelihood is this class will be static along with retail pks but I see offices and high st suffering a modest drop again so NAV may reverse 1-2p back but hardly a good reason for share price drift down. Mind you there seems to be a persistent seller but was slow to the party as bid-offer started off well. The voids are negligible, LTV is good with 4 years to run to first main loan refinance and divi is covered.

I'm getting over exposed in this sector so will probably cut part of EPIC adrift to top up here.

[alan pt] 04/7/2022 16:47

New name didn't make it any more popular then... (edit- hah, should have refreshed, didn't see you beat me to that comment!)

Being hit by the flip in sentiment on industrial I guess?

[skyship] 04/7/2022 16:29

Well, a name change hasn't turned this one around! Sinking down now to 83p!

Discount at 35%. Yield now quite respectable at 4.8%.

With 54.3% Industrial & 18.2% Retail Warehouse, to me the current share price is quite bizarre.

Sorely tempted to add further; but now at my 10% MAX. Will sit it out and wait for good news from the NAV update later this month (26th July last year).

[novision] 01/7/2022 10:08

Well done Sky - thx

[spectoacc] 01/7/2022 08:23

Gone automatically into my favourites, how does that work?

Price not showing on one of the feeds under the new ticker, might make for a quiet day even for BREI.

Edit - now showing.

[cwa1] 01/7/2022 08:09

Thanks for setting up the new thread Sky

[skyship] 30/6/2022 21:25

CT Property Trust (CTPT) is a name change from BMO Real Estate Investments (BREI).

It is a well diversified REIT with a May'22 sector split:

# Industrial: 54.3%
# Office: 21.8%
# Ret W'hse: 18.2%
# Retail: 5.7%

As at 30th Jun'22 with an share price at 84.4p it had one of the highest NAV discounts in the sector at 34.1%. It had a covered dividend of 4.0p so a yield of 4.74%. LTV quite low at 23.5% & debt cost at 3.1% (5.5yrs).

With 239m shares in issue the MCap = £202m. This fell to £180m in Sept'22 with the shares down at 75p.

In May'22 fellow propco Value and Indexed Property Income Trust (VIP) declared a 6% stake; then sold it down in Jul'22.

Company website:


18/10/22 Annual results to 30/06/22:


02/02/23 Trading Update & NAV:


Link to old thread: