Looks like seller cleared in De La Rue so recovery goes on. Holding there worth over 20p a share i reckon. |
With the signs of recovery in Hurricane and De La Rue and the continued rerate of Equals (albeit more sold on the rise) would be surprised if the 10p dividend (ex 14th July) wasn't made back up already. Hopefully Nav still close to 150p therefore current share price still at 28% discount to assets. Hurricane the most important asset now but with debt now repaid and cash in the bank this is substantially de-risked. I would imagine CA are keen to monetise the situation using their strategic stake , along with Kerogen they could put Hurricane on a plate to the right buyer.The Hurricane holding currently worth about £49m or 59p per share.If they can secure a premium exit on takeover at around 12p would be worth over 80p per share alone.Lets see how this plays out, if they managed to monetise the holding and make scheduled payment..would leave the balance of holdings at a huge discount to NAV. |
Answering #721. Quite right, they would have HUR and ALM (as well as bits like SUH). So not just the one holding left. My error. |
CA has 18.4% of ALM which is trading around 21.5 pence for a Market Value of £48.5 million. Spread over CRS's own 83 million shares in issue that makes the ALM holding contribute (0.184 x £48.5 million ÷ 83 million), about 10.7 pence of CRS's NAV per share.
Optimistically ALM could fetch more than 48.5 million as we have discussed on that BB. (But time is pressing.) |
What about ALM? |
Good question re investment company status. I suspect that by being offshore they may get around the UK rules. |
There is no value in selling the Hurricane stake piecemeal. It's value is the control is gives over what happens at Hurricane, which remains undervalued by the market. So the commitment to distribute another 60 pence by the end of September either means that the Hurricane holding pays for most of that (which would imply that corporate action is imminent) or that the Hurricane stake will be just about all of what remains after the September distribution.
CA claims a NAV of 154, down from 168 the previous month, not adjusted for the current 10 pence distribution (which should take 154 down to 144). That suggests Hurricane is actually valued at more than half the total of CA.
Therefore my guess is that CA will become essentially 29% of Hurricane after September. Anyone know if CA would be allowed to continue as an Investment Company if they only had one investment? (I assume not.) |
surely it infers that hurricance might be subject to corporate action - ie a sale of entire company. not sure how else they can rns that returns payment schedule. clearly conjecture but does make me think something is brewing there. |
I take these updates with quite a pinch of salt now. There has been a tendency to over promise and under deliver (which RB has bitterly criticised ALM for!)
I suspect the EQLS sales might help towards the 10p but nothing more. It does seem like something is brewing on HUR from the comments post the AGM and the new brooms have arrived now at ALM.
There was mention of retaining cash to fund the unlisted holdings through development but it's not clear how much is required and when it might kick in. |
Cryastal Amber have been reducing their stake in Equals Group since January 2022 - their stake in the company reduced from 20.59% to 10.18% |
other holdings beside HUR, but excellent news today |
I can't see how they can return that cash without selling a big chunk of their HUR holding. It's gone up nicely but hard to shift such a big stake. I thought all of HUR might be sold in one big sale |
Hurricane energy? |
Interesting, whats being sold first I wonder |
 Update on shareholder returnsThe Fund previously announced, based on the Investment Manager's assessment of the status and timing of anticipated corporate transactions, that it was targeting additional shareholder returns of at least GBP40 million or 50 pence per Share before 30 June 2022. The payment of the 10p a share dividend to Shareholders on 9 February 2022, representing a gross return of GBP8.3 million, was the first shareholder return towards achieving that target.As stated in the Company's circular to convene an EGM (extraordinary general meeting), dated 15 February 2022, the Fund, having consulted with several shareholders, determined it was no longer considered to be in the interests of the Fund to impose a fixed deadline but would retain 30 June 2022 as a target.The Fund is pleased to provide an update on shareholder returns based on the Investment Manager's and the Board's current assessment of the status and timing of anticipated corporate transactions. Following the payment of the 10p a share dividend to shareholders in February 2022 (representing a gross return of GBP8.3 million), the Fund expects to return a further 10p a share (representing a gross return of GBP8.3 million) by mid-August 2022 and to have returned an additional 60p a share (equivalent to GBP50 million) by the end of September 2022. If these distributions can be achieved, this would bring total returns in the first nine months of 2022 to 80p a share (equivalent to GBP66.6 million). |
Yes, once some of the cash is returned to us from other investments we will end up as a proxy holding of HUR - all be it at a discount to their current price. |
Yes especially since they are winding up and returning proceeds to shareholders. The issue is how do you exit eg HUR where they have 29% of the company? |
28% discount to the NAV on today's update NAV.Good value, imo. |
Are we still on for another 50p pay-out by 30th June? Not much time to announce this if this is the case? |
CousinIT
the 10p was classed as a dividend, I don't believe it's included in the target 50p return, but I could be wrong, either way I will be happy with 40p, or 50p, or a longer wait! |
But 10p of that already paid? |
ps
50p equates to c £44m funds realised.
Might have to flog a few HUR to meet that target. |
From the December update:The Fund previously announced, based on the Investment Manager's assessment of the status and timing of anticipated corporate transactions, that it is targeting additional shareholder returns of at least GBP40 million or 50p a share before 30 June 2022. Whilst the Fund is confident that this as achievable, after consulting with a number of shareholders, it is no longer considered to be in the interests of the Fund to impose a fixed deadline but will be keeping it as a target.So min of 50p before 30th June is a 'confident' target. |
Yes, looks like the Equals say will fund the next capital distribution, timing around mid year I believe. |
Equals sales will cover a chunk of it... |
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