It also helps that Eqls and Dlar are moving in the right direction. It reads very well that the June nav per share has increased about 13% (146 p vs 129p) compared to May. |
this trades at a 27% discount despite a non continuation vote. from what saba capital's actions are, in amassing a 25%+ stake and shorting the underlying holdings, it looks like they have no motivation to settle for anything less than a winding up, to lock in that arbitrage between NAV and market cap. if it was wound up today that could mean a 37% increase in your capital, subject to deductions. |
Or, maybe SABA is also complicit in the recent skulduggerous plot to scuttle the HUR project..?
Just a thought. DYOR, of course.
(But it wouldn't half make sense). |
Maybe investment in Hur actually changes Crs future somehow? Maybe Saba will it as a chance to gain this way? |
buywell thought Endobarrier was a very good product
It has a HUGE addressable Global market that with Covid has grown even larger
buywell hopes it comes good for CRS
Sometimes the negative view has to looked into for its merits
buywell3 - 01 Jul 2019 - 08:42:38 - 50953 of 53391
Hurricane Energy PLC - HUR
The fall today could have been a lot worse as the implications for the rest of ''Warwick Deep'' now looks somewhat shallow
40p chart retest looks likely IMO
dyor |
I get that SABA won’t vote for continuation.
And as a consequence, Crystal Amber has to formulate some proposals.
My question is what happens then? Are those proposals put to another vote of shareholders? Or just waved through?
And if shareholders vote, and vote against these proposals that SABA have forced on CRS, is the matter dropped for another two years?
I find it hard to believe the intent of the EGM was to allow a quarter of shareholders to dictate an outcome.
And, indeed, AFAICT this is not what the EGM notice states will happen. |
It's in Saba's hands. They own more than 25% of CRS, and the continuation vote needs a 75% majority. Saba have said they'll vote against.
CRS could buy them off somehow, but have to ask why Saba have short-sold CRS's holdings, if they were going for anything other than a winding-up.
Some sort of in specie transfer - maybe, but CRS is already sub-scale.
Agree "reorganisation" (and "reconstruct") are vague. It's hardly a complicated structure. How easily would the unlisted (two?) be realised I wonder.
No indication CRS have actually spoken to Saba - reference is to the, ahem, "diversity of voting" in 2020.
Other than selling down ALM, R Bernstein seems to be continuing as normal, so perhaps there's something up his sleeve. |
"Very likely to be wound up"
I think that is premature Specto. The resolution not passing requires Crystal Amber to devise proposals for reorganising, reconstructing or winding up the company.
Three options, one of which (reorganising) seems somewhat vague.
Question: once these proposals are so devised, do all shareholders vote on them and would they need a majority to pass? |
Ok thanks. Wonder if they have connections to provide such a loan to them. |
 No.
1. CRS are very likely be wound up, & need to be realising their investments
2. CRS fully invested, and usually geared on top of that
3. Total assets £107m (market cap £85m)
4. They don't seem to think HUR need further cash:
"Crystal Amber regards Lancaster as one of the most prolific production wells in the North Sea. Crystal Amber would refer market participants to Hurricane's Restructuring Business Plan Presentation dated 24 May 2021, which is available on the company's website. The presentation sets out Hurricane's long-range forecast of production from its existing P6 Well. By February 2024, this is estimated to deliver 8.4 million barrels of oil. Based on the forward curve for oil prices, this would generate approximately $600 million of revenue. Based on historic margins, this would deliver operating cash flows of in excess of $250 million. Crystal Amber further notes that actual production for June 2021 exceeded Hurricane's forecast with 10,640 barrels per day being produced as against a budget of 9,700 barrels a day. Were this trend to continue, a further $28 million of revenue would be achieved, in addition to the $285 million expected over the next 12 months.
During July 2021, Crystal Amber has been in regular dialogue with the newly constituted board of Hurricane. Since September 2020 (when the convertible bond was trading at a 70 per cent. discount), Crystal Amber has urged Hurricane to use a significant proportion of its cash to buy in bonds. The High Court of Justice stated that "the possibility of buying back bonds in the market is, on the face of it, an attractive one, given that the Bonds have been trading at a substantial discount to face value." On 5 July 2021, the bonds were trading at a 50 per cent. discount but the discount has recently narrowed to 37 per cent. Crystal Amber has requested to the board of Hurricane that it immediately embarks on a substantial purchase of these bonds. As well as saving the payment of the annual interest rate of 7.5 per cent., buying back bonds at a discount, will significantly reduce Hurricane's net indebtedness. " |
Do you think CA can provide term loan (100-150m) to Hur? |
No mention of ALM in the update ? |
Investors like that update |
wonder why crystal amber haven't released their monthly net asset value report for July? must be summer holiday time |
I think he means it is never appropriate vote against the appointment of Auditors! (Which would kind of beg the question, why are shareholders required to vote?)
Of course the shareholders who voted against the Board voted against the Board's recommendation of auditor reappointment. It would have been irrational not to. (Voting for auditors is not something most shareholders lie awake trying to decide.)
I didn't follow the court case on line but I suppose the crooked cram down motion had the support of some accountant prepared to back up a Board arguing that a Company was insolvent while accumulating cash from operations just because it might not be able to fully pay bonds in twelve months from cash. By that yardstick there should be carnage in the City. This manufactured insolvency justified the undignified haste to reach for the cram down option while the Covid rules allowed it, and that told its own story, as did the Board's blanking of Bernstein when he asked for information.
Whether Hurricane share price settles at 4 pence or more, or less, Bernstein thinks whatever he paid for the recent purchase was good business. He was right about Ocado, initially about HUR, De La Rue, and Northgate (which shares he should have kept, as I did).
Perhaps he is just not a very good Activist. The De La Rue gamble paid off handsomely enough. |
no - I am too stupid - can you spell it out for me |
I've only followed HUR for CRS reasons, and it's hardly unknown for directors to force through restructurings when they weren't strictly necessary, to the detriment of shareholders. But. HUR's always looked naff to me.
Is there actual value there, in an over-indebted UK O&G explorer? Not sure it's the "known unknowns" to worry about, more the "known knowns". (RIP DR, like the 100's of k of Iraqis).
"The board proposed the restructuring plan in April after diminished expectations of the Lancaster field led the company to conclude that it would be unable to repay holders of the company's USD230 million in convertible bonds due in July 2022.
Earlier this month, 92% of shareholders voted against a resolution to approve the plan, which would have resulted in massive dilution of their interests in the company, as the bondholders would own 95% of the company following the debt to equity conversion."
"The Surrey, England-based oil and gas company said a motion to receive its annual report and group financial statements were rejected by 74% of voters at its AGM. A motion to re-appoint Deloitte LLP as auditors was rejected by 78%."
Sorry, but if your protest vote is 74% against the AR, and 78% against Deloitte, do you actually have the first clue? |
CA now have 23% and the shares reported were bought in the days leading up to 30/06, Wednesday. Just from the HUR share price chart, that implies a cost of around £4.7 million for the additional 8.7%. At today's close CA's total 23% holding has a value about £18.7 million.
Now negotiations with Bluewater are in the hands of the new Board and data about the well can be assessed and an extension for Aoka Mizu proposed, the "known unknowns" can be better assessed. It looks pretty likely that a plan will emerge to resurrect the shareholder interest.
How much CA recover of their investment depends on the well, the PoO, and luck but the extra £4.7 million looks like a decent gamble. If the market is right it is already worth £7.1 million.
Here is a good summary of why the attempt to cram down was denied. It summarises why justice Zacaroli ruled that the Company is not presently insolvent.
hxxps://www.kirkland.com/publications/kirkland-alert/2021/06/hurricane-energy-restructuring-plan |
when in a corporate storm of your own - buy some more hurricane! |
lloyds should buy equals and stop screwing its clients on fx. it would be transformative. |
I think Equals is also strategically very interesting it has a decent footprint and all the regulatory permissions in place in the growing SME payments market . There will be a consolidation phase any time in the sector and Equals recovering from a bad 2020 has left themselves exposed I reckon as trading on a fair discount to the fintech/ alternative payments sector.Decent platform for a bid. |
Again - all down to the unlisteds (& whether there's actually any value in the likes of EQLS & ALM, particularly if a forced sale. DLAR I can believe has a buyer). |
30 discount to par is a 42.5% return, saba are not daft and gives them scope to hedge out along the way. i have no idea where spot nav is but 30% is probably not far off. |
True about the unlisteds but if CRS exits listed positions then SABA will be rushing to close shorts ..they of course will have lost the CRS cover. Could be some fun and games. Might not be the only holding where there could be interest in the whole strategic stake I guess. |
Yes - been an interesting suggestion that if CRS selling out flushes out a bid for DLAR, Saba may get short-squeezed. Not sure how much that matters if they're hedged vs CRS shares tho. Guess it requires CRS to sell out low, then the bid to come in high.
Is still the two unlisteds I'd want to know about. And the unsellable in size (mentioning no ALMs!). |
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