 The core numbers were pretty decent imo in the current climate (it was the headline numbers affected by reduced government pandemic support which perhaps prompted the selling).
The outlook in particular is very confident, as evidenced by the raised dividend and the narrative.
Once again WH Ireland has failed to produce specific forecasts for CSSG, even following the final results! Anyway, here's their summary FYI:
"WHI view:
Growing its contract portfolio, Vigilant has again provided evidence
of its ability to convert pipeline opportunities into contracts, notably with the
major £5m p.a. contract win awarded by a central London property owner and
developer, as well the prestigious Edinburgh St James centre win announced in
H1-21 (£1.3m).
Looking forward, we see a number of positive drivers for FY23E, notably the full year effect of the recent major contract win; the impact of a long list of contract awards secured, mainly within Vigilant, after the year end; the potential benefits of the newly acquired stores; and the potential impact of iLOQ.
We note the healthy level of contracted revenues of 1 month-plus (88%), and
while a significant proportion of sales will need to see contract renewals in the
New Year, CSSG’s track record has generally been very positive from this perspective. Regarding the iLOQ opportunity, group-wide training has now been
completed enabling CSSG’s employees to market and install this product country-
wide (so far one £0.3m contract gained), which we believe could present an
interesting area for growth moving forward." |
I would consider buying more at this price if they get confirmation that those contracts have been renewed. |
Thanks for your sympathies bookbroker, this share has indeed been a bummer for me. Unlike you, however, I have not given up on it, and still see good value here (although anyone reading this should bear in mind that I have been entirely wrong on this to date)!
My updated valuation is 75p per share. More detail is in the header. |
I was a shareholder in Croma many years ago, met Sebastian Morley and said I was unhappy with the performance of the company.
The company's performance subsequently remained disappointing so sold out and nothing has happened in the intervening years to make me regret that decision. If you look back more than 7 years the share price graph tells you everything you need to know. |
Lotta contracts up for renewal creates significant uncertainty. |
I sympathise with the creator of this thread, he appeared to have a lot of skin in the game, but will be getting stung big time. |
Definitely, a small company with very low margins, and weak business model. I thought prior to pandemic, during and with all the grants they received they would emerge stronger. But they are in fact weaker, security sounds a sound business, but in reality labour intensive at its core. Can see a banana skin here, consolidation will not help this company, will actually increase the risk big time. It’s no wonder there are so many small entities in the game. But the list of reasons not to invest are limitless! |
Numbers look weird again to me.
"Purchase of property, plant and equipment £1.2m". What's included in that, it's a big number for a tiny company? Seems unexplained? Wild swings in cash balances.
Bargepole for me. |
Morley lives near Dumfries, and Vigilant based there, but I’m surprised that they continue to increase the size of space required there, total backwater, so not surprised increased travel costs. Must be material to mention it, maybe they should think about means to reduce this cost!!! |
Today's prelims show £1.59m EBITDA, well ahead of the "at least" £1.5m EBITDA previously flagged.
The core business delivered £1.5m EBITDA, well ahead of last year's £1.2m (before government pandemic support).
CSSG still have a £2.6m cash pile despite the various expansion costs this year, and have raised the dividend 5% to 2.1p.
The headline numbers are pretty misleading due to (1) prior year govt support and (2) this year's goodwill write-off. So in this case EBITDA is the most relevant measure.
Including the new £5m per annum contract win, the outlook is nicely confident:
"We are now seeing the benefit of that investment, in the current financial year with significant new contract wins that will boost our future financial performance." |
One more day for Morley to get these results to the market. Needs to get his act together with this company, very poor performance, imagine they’ll be another goodwill writedown! |
We are delighted to announce that Croma Vigilant and Croma PROception have been selected as finalists in six categories at the Security and Fire Excellence Awards 2022 in London!
These include:
- “Customer Service Initiative of the year – Croma PROtouch”
- “Security Product of the year – Safe Haven”
- "Outsourced Security Individual or Team of the Year – St James Quarter”
- “Security Manager of the Year – Graham Roach”
- “Security Software Product or Software as a Service of the Year – PROmail”
- “Security Training Initiative of the Year – Steps2Success” |
https://www.google.com/amp/s/capital.com/amp/cury-currys-share-price-double |
Agreed, certainly a canny move to announce the contract wins along with the update!
The useless brokers WH Ireland never had any forecasts out in the market AFAICS, so not really a "warning" per se. Nevertheless, CSSG made £0.87m EBITDA in H1, so H2 is likely to bring a drop to around £0.7m since the £1.5m EBITDA is a minimum.
The £6.1m per annum of new contract wins should have a lovely effect for the current year. It would also be nice to have an idea of what the cash pile is forecast to be - but unfortunately WH Ireland STILL haven't issued an update note even after today's news.
CSSG remains very good value imo also - let's see if this results in some broker forecasts at long last.
As an aside, given the mammoth requirement for security for the queue at the Queen's resting place - and at the various buildings commemorating her passing - I wonder whether CSSG have picked up any business? Perhaps this is not really the kind of work they go for. |
SP not AP!! |
EBITDA was c£2m last year so essentially today's announcement is a profit warning!! The new contracts are definitely a positive but it is clear the company held back the EBITDA figure until they had some good news to disguise it. AP is still very cheap though IMHO |
Wow!
Decent numbers, with a minimum £1.5m EBITDA against the £10m m/ cap - plus the substantial cash pile.
But these are large and significant contract wins, particularly the £5m per annum property contract. The total £6.1m per annum of new contracts should help bump up this year’s numbers nicely. |
Still no movement or even buying. Quiet here. |
Another locksmiths acquisition today from CSSG's £3.5m cash pile - £840,000 consideration is buying £108,000 of PBT plus almost £1m of assets.
Presumably that historic PBT will rise nicely given it was achieved during the pandemic to March'22: |
Likely one of the worst run companies on AIM., Morley is a useless CEO, a good talker typical of ex-Army, but failing to deliver any real value for investors. Just put the company up for sale, and do the rest of us a favour. |
I’d like to see where this company is spending its cash balance, likely on higher staffing costs, but Morley always seems so optimistic that I have to doubt him. Otherwise why no dividend at the half year! |
Ah, if only everything could be extrapolated so simply!
The year end trading update is in June, so probably all quiet until then. Given the H1 outlook we will hopefully have good news:
"Second half trading has started well and therefore the Board believes the business is well placed to deliver a good a trading performance for the year.
Sebastian Morley, Chairman of CSSG, said: "We are pleased to have delivered a good performance amidst a challenging market. Demand from our client base was steady which given the disruption caused by the pandemic was a solid performance. We completed the acquisition of a new security store in Manchester, and we believe we have a good pipeline of further opportunities. Similarly, we see opportunity in technology led areas such as the tie up with Biometric expert Fingo and iLOQ the specialist locks business.
Overall, the business is well placed, our balance sheet is strong, our core businesses are profitable and cash generative and we are adding to them with bolt on acquisitions and through partnerships with technology leaders" |
Mkt Cap £11.5m,directors salaries £748k, they are excessive for the size of the company. Be like suggesting a £3bln. company, directors salaries £200mln. |
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