Croda Share Discussion Threads

[dancing piranha] 19/9/2023 15:36

A great short!

[commuter10] 19/9/2023 15:27

This gives real cause for concern as share price has now halved from Mid-2021 levels.

Is this a hold or sell share now do we think?

[games] 19/9/2023 12:04

Fuji99

Croda manufacture vaccine lipids

[games] 19/9/2023 12:01

Read 3rd paragraph and concerns cancer etc

Wafik S md comment (tweet) embedded on page above. His wiki credentials are listed further below

Ref lipid

This is meant to be a growth market

Phillip B & Kevin M with others have worked thoroughly on the contamination issues. They used oxford nanopore kit

Btw this discovery may also become heredity

[fuji99] 19/9/2023 11:47

I cannot see this is related to Croda.

[games] 19/9/2023 11:22

Maybe have a read of this.

Senate hearing, contamination

Ref lipids, note the concerns

Add this to other segments of croda with weak forecasts

This has been an evolving story.

[fuji99] 13/9/2023 11:27

A steep decline for now weeks may have a reason behind it.

[commuter10] 25/7/2023 10:25

Thanks Wad Collector feeling a lot better about them now.

[wad collector] 25/7/2023 09:57

Depends which bit of the results you look at ; the adjusted figures are not that bad, and it has all been warned about so market response positive so far , perhaps from this outlook
Outlook

With customer destocking in Consumer Care, Crop Protection and Industrial Specialities continuing into the second half of the year, we continue to expect full year 2023 Group adjusted profit before tax to be between GBP370m and GBP400m. We will leverage our strong balance sheet to sustain ongoing investment in our repositioned portfolio, focused on fast-growing niches, to create significant future value.




This is significantly higher than 2018 to 21 figures , only looks bad compared to the bumper 2022 year.

[commuter10] 25/7/2023 08:49

Half Year Results look disastrous:
Sales: 21.9% Down
Operating profit: 54.9% Down
Profit beforeTax : 79.8% Down
Earnings Before Tax: 83.8% Down

Is there any light at the end of the tunnel I wonder?

[steeplejack] 19/6/2023 16:34

And another one…


JPMorgan Cazenove slashed its price target on Croda to 5,000p from 6,200p and retained its 'underweight' rating.

The bank said the new price target is based on around 22x 2025 estimate price-to-earnings, with the target multiple still reflecting an optimistic premium to last 10years.

JPM said the company's recent earnings reset by management reduces near-term risks, although the visibility on 2H23/2024 earnings recovery remains low, in the bank's opinion.

"Further, fundamentally, a pronounced earnings decline in 2023 with an implied 5-year organic EBIT compound annual growth rate of circa 2% and around 8-9% points decline in post-tax ROIC over this period (due to a step-up in M&A and to a lesser extent organic growth capex) do not justify the market expectations of a structural substantial step-up in organic growth and as a result substantial re-rating of the shares seen over the past four years, in our opinion," it said.

JPM's lowered FY23/24 adjusted earnings per share estimates are 5%/11% below post-warning company consensus.

"Some of the current earnings pressure - 2023E adjusted EBIT likely to be down 15% year-on-year ex Covid-19 vaccines related earnings - reflect the sector-wide cyclical downturn and inventory destocking trends," it said.

"However, the company has likely also continued to lose material market share in its consumer care business, in which 2023e volumes are likely to be around 15% below 2018 levels."

[steeplejack] 15/6/2023 20:55

Berenberg cut its price target on Croda as it trimmed estimates a week after the specialty chemicals firm warned on profits, but maintained its 'buy' recommendation.

The bank, which reduced the price target to £66 from £80 ,said big profit warnings from Croda are rare - as are good entry points.
“The last time the company issued a trading update remotely as bearish as the one of 9 June 2023 was on 24 June 2014, when industrials were a larger part of mix," it noted.
“The smooth journey for Croda over the difficult subsequent period for the chemicals sector - one of Chinese overcapacity, then the Covid-19 pandemic, then the European energy crisis - speaks for the robustness of the business.

"The recovery of shares,following the 2014 warning, suggests it is a good idea to buy on weakness. We understand that US order books show some signs of improvement, and survey data (see our consumer team's China review) point to a solid outlook for China.

"Europe is not yet at the end of squeeze on discretionary incomes, but volumes should improve by the start of FY24."

Berenberg said the 20% cuts to its earnings per share estimates reflect lower sales volumes and prices in consumer care and crop protection, in addition to lower prices for by-product sales in the industrial specialities segment.

[broshm] 13/6/2023 16:28

Could be time to make an investment !

[soloinvestor] 09/6/2023 13:10

Jeez. What a drop, is nowhere safe? Think I'll stick to NS&I or US trackers.

[glennrcharles] 09/6/2023 12:33

Things may well lookup when they notify Croda shareholders of the new possibilities that they are working with together with SBTX. Croda certainly talked up the groundbreaking possibility for skin care with proven efficacy that they are aiming for in trials later this year.

[deanmatlazin] 09/6/2023 08:43

profit reduced by 50%!!

This will go back down to £40

[salpara111] 09/6/2023 08:28

Similar story everywhere, due to supply chain issues most businesses overordered during covid and are now destocking which is being compounded by a much gloomier looking economic forecast.
I had this on my watchlist as it was approaching the bottom of its recent trading range but I'm being much more prudent at present just sitting on cash mostly.
This is a decent business but it will take the next update to give a steer on what can be expected over the next 12 months.

[steeplejack] 09/6/2023 07:56

Its a very bland,downbeat statement which says a lot about the state of the world economy.Article in todays Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,outlines a bleak scenario with China exporting deflationary pressures as its economy spirals downwards.Its a very credible piece of analysis.I don't have the patience to hang in here.Dead money for the next few months i suspect.

[wad collector] 09/6/2023 07:15

Oh dear, now plunging to a 3 yr low. Hadn't noticed the director's sells in April. Sit on hands time I guess.

[steeplejack] 09/6/2023 06:42

"full year 2023 Group profit before tax is now expected to be between GBP370m and GBP400m"Consensus broker forecasts were 10-20% higher than that.As ever,if you follow "insider" dealings,you won't go far wrong.Management sales in March were instructive.

[steeplejack] 07/6/2023 07:19

Goldman Sachs cuts Croda International to 'neutral' (buy) - price target 7,200 (8,700) pence

[1retroz] 26/5/2023 09:15

Thanks SMCN - I missed that one and good to know

[smcni1968] 19/5/2023 19:30

The company was presenting at an analyst conference, they said their consumer business was showing no signs of improving at the minute which is why it tanked

[1retroz] 18/5/2023 18:01

Volume of shares pretty low today might have something to do with the drop.

[steeplejack] 18/5/2023 14:34

Would appear someone knows something i don't.