Bouncing off £50 atm , maybe the worse is behind CRDA now, this is an industry with high barriers to entry , but still a long way back to the heady £100 days of 2021. |
Thanks for that, the sharp share price rise suggests an impressive influence of the broker! |
 Croda a long C-road to recoveryOperationally, a load C-road to recovery. We reduce Croda estimates c. 12% for FY24 and our target price to £53. In Consumer Care, we expect a sequential improvement in destocking; however, as demonstrated above, the overhang of inventories at HPC customers remains into the start of FY24. With a realignment of customer inventories globally still ongoing (esp. in Asia) and slower growth from large-cap customers more generally, the snap-back will not be immediate. This has raised and continues to raise debate around the defensiveness and quality of Croda's Consumer Care portfolio, given volume declines well in excess of even its lowest-quality peers, despite the cushioning from substantial growth in Iberchem.From an earnings perspective, even with stabilising volumes y/y, earnings remain impacted by operating deleverage and high-priced inventories. With it clear Ag end markets are unlikely to recover until H2. While volumes seem to be turning (Actives up y/y, Beauty Effects still negative) and despite work on inventories, we are not completely out of the woods, with inventories still above average. Risk therefore remains that the boost in volumes through September/October is short-lived near term, and thus, the outlook remains weak. We expect a weak 1H24 - essentially reflecting the 2H run rates, with a more meaningful improvement coming through as the year progresses.Strategically, poised but not yet able to catalyse growth given operational challenges. In the mid-term, Croda's less levered balance sheet than peers provides optionality from an acquisition perspective, with ND/EBITDA still c1x (at current EBITDA levels c1.4x). In the near term, the ability to acquire businesses remains constrained, with the attractive IFF Lucas Meyer assets too expensive, given current uncertainties in outlook and in managing the core business. Overall, that high-multiple stocks can get these deals executed at these multiples is another affirmation that multiples in the sector remain too high. For Croda to participate further in acquisitions, we believe a meaningful decline in industry multiples must be evident in asset prices. |
Nice rise this morning. Apparently a report issued by Jefferies - has anyone seen yhe report? |
Looks like the nadir has passed. Long way back up though... |
I wonder whether the director's purchase is linked to the positive test results expected from the skinbiotix lysate expected soon. |
40% drop since the start of 2022. |
got close to the 4170 chart support after the bad news but maybe it has bottomed at that point . Any trader quick on his or feet will have made heaps today if buying close to low point . |
Woops - Croda cuts profit guidance as clients focus on reducing stockpiles
Croda now anticipates adjusted pre-tax profits of £300m to £320m this year
It is the second time in recent months that the firm has cut its profit outlook
The group's shares were the FTSE 100's worst performer on Monday morning
By HARRY WISE
Croda International has slashed its annual earnings outlook following a weaker-than-expected performance as its customers continued to destock their inventories.
The speciality chemicals provider now anticipates reporting adjusted pre-tax profits of £300million to £320million this year, down from previous guidance of between £370million and £400million.
It is the second profit warning the FTES 100 firm has delivered this year after declaring in June that earnings would be weaker than the £440million forecast by analysts. |
Something definitely fundamentally wrong is brewing behind the scenes. I wouldn't touch it at the moment until this awful decay stops and clarifies. |
Not good to see directors selling. |
Games: Thanks a lot. |
Not anymore shorts doomed to failure hammering up.
Please do your own research as always. |
A great short! |
This gives real cause for concern as share price has now halved from Mid-2021 levels.
Is this a hold or sell share now do we think? |
Fuji99
Croda manufacture vaccine lipids |
Read 3rd paragraph and concerns cancer etc
Wafik S md comment (tweet) embedded on page above. His wiki credentials are listed further below
Ref lipid
This is meant to be a growth market
Phillip B & Kevin M with others have worked thoroughly on the contamination issues. They used oxford nanopore kit
Btw this discovery may also become heredity |
I cannot see this is related to Croda. |
Maybe have a read of this.
Senate hearing, contamination
Ref lipids, note the concerns
Add this to other segments of croda with weak forecasts
This has been an evolving story. |
A steep decline for now weeks may have a reason behind it. |
Thanks Wad Collector feeling a lot better about them now. |
Depends which bit of the results you look at ; the adjusted figures are not that bad, and it has all been warned about so market response positive so far , perhaps from this outlook
Outlook
With customer destocking in Consumer Care, Crop Protection and Industrial Specialities continuing into the second half of the year, we continue to expect full year 2023 Group adjusted profit before tax to be between GBP370m and GBP400m. We will leverage our strong balance sheet to sustain ongoing investment in our repositioned portfolio, focused on fast-growing niches, to create significant future value.
This is significantly higher than 2018 to 21 figures , only looks bad compared to the bumper 2022 year. |
Half Year Results look disastrous:
Sales: 21.9% Down
Operating profit: 54.9% Down
Profit beforeTax : 79.8% Down
Earnings Before Tax: 83.8% Down
Is there any light at the end of the tunnel I wonder? |
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