Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[kemche] 03/2/2014 12:55

Riv, 2 points if I may:
1) I can point to a number of "optimistic" RNS's delivered by this company over the years which came to nowt.
2) Edison "research"? Seriously?

[rivaldo] 03/2/2014 12:48

Perhaps you're right, but given the optimistic tone of the RNS I can't see much downside in the run-up to the finals, but I can see significant upside.

Especially as almost all nervous nellie PIs have now sold :o))

I see that Edison have a new note out today, reiterating their forecast of 11.3p EPS for the year ending next month, with 12.4p EPS next year, and a 3.9p dividend:



They conclude:

"Valuation: Substantial discount

The share price remains at a substantial discount to the sector of 48% on a calendarised 2013 P/E and 20% on EV/EBITDA, narrowing to 34% and 17% respectively for 2014. This is primarily a reflection of the current earnings plateau. Clarity on the strategy for moving profits and earnings ahead and delivery against market expectations, as well as a continuing strong net new business win position, will help close the valuation gap."

[kemche] 03/2/2014 12:09

Riv, I suspect that the "new broom" may not be as new as you hope. I fear that he may have learnt from the master and decide to jump on the gravy train himself. What is needed here is a complete clear-out of the board and invigoration with truly new blood. That unfortunately will require the institutional investors to grow a spine - and what chance of that?
All IMHO and DYOR etc

[rivaldo] 03/2/2014 10:53

Bought back some of these this morning.

A decent trading statement this morning - in particular that CRE are "comfortable that the full year results will be in line with market expectations."

This sounds very confident, and perhaps hints that with continued economic recovery, and the digital advertising boom, results could even be ahead of expectations.

Forecasts are for 11.2p EPS and a 3.9p dividend for the year ending next month.

A P/E of 8.5 and a 4% divi yield are pretty tempting, especially with DE now gone and a "new broom" taking the company forward.

[smithie6] 14/1/2014 18:09

'profit warning'
no warning needed imo.....at least a 1M reduction in PBT is already pencilled in my analysts imo....eg. EdisonResearch

poor H1 and approx. 1M extra annual building lease costs

they were busy making bids in H1 or H2 last year....since they didnt have enough work imo

ie. EdisonResearch. imo approx. 9M versus 10M in prev. 2 years...I have it somewhere

(even if H2 is good I cant see it changing the numbers that much)

imo co. only reqd. to warn if would achieve 20% less than that...so perhaps could achieve 7-11M without needing to warn the mkt !!
----

if 400k one off cost due to DE leaving that doesnt help numbers.

[smithie6] 14/1/2014 18:03

btw
Don's income from Creston, at least 6M, using the data from the accounts
and total of around 600k paid to City Group, which helps support the dir. salary for a son of David Marshall

Shareholder assets 111M. around 11M paid in divi over the years, so the co. is using 100M pnds of assets imo. and producing around 7M of cash after tax.....7%....not very stunning.

'synergy' the big Don Elgie and David Marshall plan. Join marketing companies together to provide cross selling etc and 'synergy'.

using 100M of cash to produce 7% PAT does not show any synergy imo.

and noting that while it is using 100M of cash, the market only values it at 60M....not a good investing ploy !....for investing you need the reverse, invest 60M cash to have a market value of 100M !, not vice versa

(although one could argue that the sale value or real value of Creston is higher...time will tell the true value)

Why, at present, is the plan not working very well ?
Perhaps Don Elgie overpaid for acquisitions.....
Why ?
Because he HAD to make acquisitions...it was his stated plan.
And did he care if the acqusitions were cheap or expensive ?
Perhaps not. He received 6M from Creston.

LESSON
imo renumeration committees need to follow some basic regulations....
which need to prohibit that dirs. can receive high renumeration at a company with cap. value under 100M while the co. performs badly for shareholders
....the regs. perhaps need to ensure that any higher renumeration is only provided via share options

and that ordinary shareholders are encouraged to vote....such that if they do not vote in enough numbers to agree director pay rise then the pay rise can not happen !.....dirs. will hence encourage shareholders to vote,

perhaps prohibit any related party (such at David Marshall and City Group) from sitting on renumeration committee....to avoid any risk of mutual back scratching...(ie. any risk of 'you keep paying my dirs. fee and co. secretary fee every year...which helps fund/pay dir. salary of my son at co. secretary ....and I'll agree beneficial renumeration for you')

[madengland] 14/1/2014 09:38

A profit warning in this climate will show serious ineptitude. Don now a seller as well as ruffer?

[madengland] 14/1/2014 09:34

The market waking up to the fact that Don gone is not changing a thing, with BB at helm. Rumours of Don gone pre some lousy results. Jump before pushed captain.

[madengland] 14/1/2014 08:50

At 80p this is fairly valued, at 60p it's a buy

[madengland] 14/1/2014 08:49

Anyone know if ruffer have sold up stake yet? Or is there yet more overhang from them. I doubt they will be willing to put up with the returns or board governance. Don gone, big tick. BB succeeds him, bigger cross IMO.

[madengland] 13/1/2014 20:08

Yep Smithie, Don and Bazzer have done good unlike shareholders

[smithie6] 13/1/2014 16:47

btw
assets used is approx. 111M
and producing this year around 7M after tax. (9M before tax)

6% return

Not much for Don to be proud of there imo.
Current share price looks about right for the earnings and no growth situation (well, fall in PBT this year).

Effectively the same share price as when first started in 2000, 96p.
That is dismal in anyones book imo.

(I'm adding up Don's income from Creston, so far at around 4M quid and some years still to add in....he's done nicely out of Creston ...and BB as well....

while shareholders have LOST money due to inflation, most of the 13 years without any divi
I'm a holder via Western, and I am not impressed, nor with David C Marshall who agreed the idea of turning the Creston shell into a marketing co.

the renumeration committee and D.Marshall have a lot of the blame for high renumeration.....renumeration needs to instead be based on good performance, not just on turning up ....and if good performance is not provided then Instit. Investors should be active and pressing the bod, rather than just selling and moving elsewhere which is what happened at Creston)
----

Looks to me like none of Creston's initial Inst. investors from 2000-2005 are still investors now, except Western (which agreed the change to marketing and got a dir. fee and an co. secretary fee every year which helped them pay their office staff costs.....including dir. fee there of a son of D.Marshall.

That is the II verdict on DE imo.

[madengland] 13/1/2014 14:07

Well I hope for holders that this is bought out, and finally peeps make a return. Funny to read Don Ego witter on about what he's built. No mention of shareholder returns. Barrie Brien, 9 years in the business so part of the legacy.... Hardly an agent if change. But well done BB on the office move.....and subsequent dent on profit. Do holders a favour and retire also.....

[harry the haddock] 10/1/2014 15:31

is making me smile just thinking about how his ego must've been punctured when he was told about the market reaction to his departure!

[rivaldo] 10/1/2014 15:07

Poor old DE. And another kick in the teeth - presumably because of his departure Singer have now upgraded CRE to a BUY and raised their target price to 119p from 91p:



I'd assume this increases the chance of a bid - from Havas or whomever. It certainly makes CRE more vulnerable imo.

[madengland] 10/1/2014 13:06

Yes good news for holders, but is BB the man? Out with the old and in with the old (err new surely). You gotta hope someone buys this out

[smithie6] 10/1/2014 12:07

WHARGHHHHH !!!!

je je !

share price up 8% on the news that the Managing Directors is leaving !!

that is a very strong message imo !!!

he he !!
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13 years and the share price at the end was almost identical to what it was at the start, 96p !!!......with the effects of inflation the share price is DOWN a lot,

with inflation the share price should be around 150-170p imo

The MD will I assume get 1 years salary for 'loss of office'. 400k !!!!!.

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more on hxxp://fulltimeinvestors.com/Creston/

[addison17] 10/1/2014 09:20

Well the RNS seems to have gone down well.

[tudes100] 10/1/2014 08:35

I sold a while back but am seriously delighted for all holders. Hopefully the company can move forward and deliver on promises.
Best wishes all.

[addison17] 10/1/2014 08:09

SP back up nicely to 100p, not sure whats giving this the lift but quite happy. Does anyone know the date of the next update.

[colyoung] 10/1/2014 07:42

The Don has Gone!!!!!

Is that £0.5 million on to the bottom line

[smithie6] 09/1/2014 16:12

Hi Mag.

....perhaps dont count your chickens too early !

[madengland] 09/1/2014 00:16

Will ruffers and other institutions sell more. Interesting havas not buying.