Cove Energy Share Discussion Threads

[peteh1] 02/3/2012 14:38

LOL.Short hurting is it Oldtown.

[aaainvestment] 02/3/2012 14:37

Don't assume that the government can just impose a chare either, it's not about fair play, it's about whats legal/enforcable and agreed within the contract!

Ministers and oil ministries in various countries do lose court case thruogh international courts and through their own legal systems - I'm not saying Cove would win if it came to a legal case but a Government win is by no means a foregone conclusion.

[peteh1] 02/3/2012 14:31

AAA & Oldtown.If you are so confident of the bear view then by all means increase your short.I don't consider you will though,as you already have doubts that your current short was a mistake.

[steeplejack] 02/3/2012 14:30

Well,the thing is, not everyone has a sense of fair play like us Brits.I mean it was only a couple of years ago that we let our American cousins go off with our biggest sweetie jar and Cadburys will never be the same.

[aaainvestment] 02/3/2012 14:27

We are not just talking about Cove or even the oil consessions here; the principle of reviwing/changing tax rules when an opportunity arises to make a killing cuts deep into every potential investment in the country.

Irrespective of the Governement believing they can and are entitled to do it or not - they risk creating the perception that they cannot do a deal and stick to it.

Future investment in the field and other oilfields will be huge, billions or if the majors can't trust the government a hell of a lot less - the likes of Shell do not need excessive corporate risk. Also why would new entrants risk mega-bucks drilling new prospects if they thought the government would try to move the goal posts to fleece them upon any discovery.

I would imagine Shell will take an especially dim view of this, weren't they forced out of their Russian gas interests many years ago in a very bitter fued with Gasprom(Russian Government).

[lovegod] 02/3/2012 14:26

Well they wont get their share of spoils,until we do,and they need it more.

[itsonlyme2] 02/3/2012 14:21

I think the sale will go through no problem, the question is when, it all rests on the Government giving its approval,

[itsonlyme2] 02/3/2012 14:16

Instead she wont grant permission for the sale because no one has greased her sweaty palm

[rus4] 02/3/2012 14:15

Should Cove withdraw from the sale process ?
The Mozambique Gov are very late in the day introducing a new tax
Should new taxes not be discussed in a calmer atmosphere ?
If drilling continues the value of the Moz assets should increase
Should Anadarko/Cove put more emphasis on their Kenyan blocks ?

[oldtown] 02/3/2012 14:09

Ok Pete, Minister of Mineral Resources Esperanca Bias is not going to charge COV a capital gains tax despite announcing to the press yesterday that she was.

Is that better, or more balanced for you?

Amazing!

[peter anthony] 02/3/2012 13:37

oldtown - if u were putting forward a balanced view talking about the range of taxes or maybe none at all then I would consider it a debate - not the extreme situation of somewhere like Uganda

[steeplejack] 02/3/2012 13:36

I think what oldtown's comments make a lot of sense.The market's pretty good at weighing up the situation in these circumstances and at 2 quid,it's running a 10% discount to the Thai offer.That's not unusual given the time frame of bids.What the market is clearly suggesting is that it's now unlikely that any further parties join the bidding party but strangely,don't seem to be factoring in a Shell counter-offer.What i am concerned about as someone mentioned above, is that the government have the whip hand.No approval will be given to any deal 'til they've sorted out the new tax regime and that could take awhile......"African time" strikes!

For those who are not familiar with "African Time",i'll give you a well known example.....You arrive at the border of say,Zimbabwe with the intention of getting into Botswana.You are advised that it's best to arrive early when the passport office opens to avoid delays.It's 9 am and the passport officer arrives.He reviews the waiting room and sees there are 12 people waiting.His shift lasts three hours and thus he determines he will expend 15 minutes on each person thereby filling fully his 3 hour shift.Let me assure you that if there were only three people he will try to extend the time spent on each person to an hour......that is what they call "African time" and anyone who sees a quick resolution to this thorny little tax conundrum is probably being optimistic.

[fraserdean] 02/3/2012 13:28

I think it's probably because you're making up numbers oldtown, some people take that as a sign that the rest of the comment is also just made up.

[oldtown] 02/3/2012 13:14

It's really sad on these threads that people can not debate a share without the same old" he must be shor" line being peddled.

[peter anthony] 02/3/2012 13:13

oldtown and itsonly have to be short - otherwise they wouldn't be trotting out this doom and gloom. Read elsewhere that cgt has been 10 - 20% in other countries and also it is possible that they cannot impose a tax depending on the agreement Cove have signed with the Mozzie govt

'Some oil and gas firms have tax stabilisation clauses written into their agreements with the host country which prohibit governments later applying new taxes.
If Cove's agreement has such a clause, it could take the Maputo government to international arbitration if it sought to levy a new capital gains tax.'

[oldtown] 02/3/2012 13:09

Your obstacles are easily overcome, by say an independent Valuer to asses the worth of the Mozambique assets.
Also you keep banging on about Shell using shares, read the RNS it's a cash offer.
Or does your whole argument completely fall down once you grasp this fundamental flaw in what your saying?
Even it it was shares (which it is not) shell would probably assume the liability for COV and deduct this from the offer price ,and then pay the tax in cash to the MOZ goverment.

You can pamper the complexities all day long but the government will want i would say 20-30% of any profit.
Why would shell care who gets the cash they just want the assets.
Indeed i guess paying them cash would do them no harm whatsoever in Mozambique.

[talkman2] 02/3/2012 13:00

Cove issuing shraes to the Mozambique govt , how does that work Oldtown ?
All offers to Cove have to recoomended by the board why could they not make an offer in shares , they have already been trumped by PTT. They have to make a revised offer if they want to acquire Cove.

How do you pay CGT on Cove's Kenya assets and cash already been expended on the Mozambique finds ?

[oldtown] 02/3/2012 12:45

Talkman2 I don't understand?
Nowhere whatsoever has it even been hinted at that they would use shares rather than cash?
Every single report i have read including the original RNS from Shell says Cash.Also looking at shells cash balance its obviously a cash transaction.

However ,why would this affect any tax? the government could take the shares in lei of cash and sell them on the open market.
Hardly rocket science is it now.

"Anglo-Dutch oil major Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RSDB.LN) Wednesday made a proposed GBP992.4 million cash offer to buy all the shares of U.K.-listed Cove Energy PLC (COV.LN)"

[mattoil] 02/3/2012 12:43

We i.e. investors will not walk away, that is the point. The gains are too big, even with this tax shareholders in Cove have made a fortune and you suggest they will walk away out of principle? Get real!

[itsonlyme2] 02/3/2012 12:40

hence all the shorts and curlies lol lol

[talkman2] 02/3/2012 12:39

It aint going to happen , look at how investment has plummeted in Uganda after the tax stunt they pulled off there. Again, how can they charge 35% if Cove shareholders get Shell paper ? Please clarify ?

[oldtown] 02/3/2012 12:37

35% tax would value the latest bid at £1.52p.

[fraserdean] 02/3/2012 12:35

But they need cars at the houses in the south of france and miami too