Cove Energy Share Discussion Threads

[oldtown] 02/3/2012 12:35

10%? you'll be lucky in Uganda when they pulled the same stunt on Heritage they wanted 35%.

[woodster71] 02/3/2012 11:52

well the ministers cant all want nice new ferraris, there's only one road!

[plunger2] 02/3/2012 11:45

Like I said does anyone really think the minister will do anything to make Shell walk away? If she did where would that leave APC or ENI? My hunch is this will get sorted quickly enough.
Steeple - I agree with you. This is really about "hello money" not tax, otherwise the show stops. I also agree that the take out may be at 235-ish level now; and Shell are clear favourite.

JMHO

[talkman2] 02/3/2012 11:37

The market / industry have already given a value to the assets. I presume you are short ?

[itsonlyme2] 02/3/2012 11:36

wonder what the share price will be if they dont sale

[itsonlyme2] 02/3/2012 11:25

problem is the Mozambique government may not agree to the sale until they have passed a law to tax the sale maybe thats why this share is being shorted so much, it will take along time to pass the law and in the mean time the share price will just drift lower and lower and in the end the tax will have to come off the share price this is becoming a mess

[itsonlyme2] 02/3/2012 11:18

ALLOA2003 Here here, I done the same as you,look what happened to blvn the other day, if they get 10% CGT that brings the share price down to what we got,looking for other investments now the cash is in the bank, this could be a long drawn out affair,

[steeplejack] 02/3/2012 11:18

Yes and it was a UK government,you will remember,who effectively ripped off RAILTRACK shareholders some years back all in the national interest i presume!

The error that Mozambique has made is that it hasn't instituted a new mining law sooner.Originally aiming for the end of last year,really they can't rush through legislation now that would see Cove taxed retrospectively.That would be very unsettling for future dealings with multi-nationals with multiple operations in various countries, who will argue that to attach a specific value to a Mozambique asset would be fraught with problems.

If the Mozambique government thought it through,they could perhaps see that it's easier to make people pay when they arrive at the party rather than when they are leaving.Hence,when Cove bought the Artamus (Wentworth) interest in 2009 they should have paid the Mozambique government an "entry" or royalty fee and in this case,Shell should pay an entry fee if they buy Cove.That would be logistically efficient.Forgetting i'm a shareholder for a second, i empathise with the Mozambique government,they should get something out of the quick "turn" that Cove has engineered here but you can't tax retrospectively and retain credibility.

I agree with Malcom Graham-Wood,the company will be sold despite any tax complications.I don't see Shell walking away for starters.I reckon the stock will be taken out at 235p or thereabouts but that's lower than i was suggesting a week back partly because of this furore.

[alloa2003] 02/3/2012 10:44

This type of issue was one of the reasons I sold too early at 194 on the first offer. Many oil and gas companies have been seriously burnt by various taxes charged by developing nations with large natural resources.

The arguement about whether this rumoured tax is legal or not is difficult because what may be illegal in the UK could be legal in Mozambique - after all it is the government which is talking about the tax and the government which makes the laws in the country.

[plunger2] 02/3/2012 10:05

AAA We're on the same page.
I should imagine the Minister is currently being apprised of how much everyone has "lost" by throwaway comments.
Shell have been around much longer than the Minister and she knows she cannot have them walk. So selling this at 195 or less makes little sense to me.
The market is over-reacting to perceived uncertainty. I doubt much has changed for Shell and maybe not for PTT also. Beyond that who knows?
The next week will be interesting.

JMHO

[thecynical1] 02/3/2012 09:57

AAA - this is herd behaviour....it is as far as I can make out only a rumour at this point.......I am pretty sure that this can be worked out behind the scenes.....the market hates uncertainty........not sure that Cove´s RNS helped this morning.....but that is just my opinion,

[aaainvestment] 02/3/2012 09:51

Isn't the minister supposed to have said it to a reporter, it's not an official position or policy, hence Cove are making enquiries.

The minister may well wish to impose a tax but that doesn't mean its government policy or legally enforcable, all we are seeing today is a little panic and heavy shorting be those that have spotted an opportunity.

Government around the world a trying to tap into the huge profits being made by oil companies (mostly at the production end) and pushing for resource nationalisation - usually without paying a fair price.

Thats all well and good but there can be a heavy price to pay in fleecing ivestors and losing trust of investors, money moves away very fast as can be seen with Coves share price this morning.

[plunger2] 02/3/2012 09:38

You'd have to ask Shell that.... ;-)

[itsonlyme2] 02/3/2012 09:36

its looking like a long drawn out affair so where will the share price fall to????

[plunger2] 02/3/2012 09:34

I don't think it's useful to use CGT in the context that we use it.
Clearly there has been no gain realised anywhere yet. The only one that's slated to be realised is by COV shareholders and Moz cannot directly tax them - they'd never find me.
So let's think of it as a some sort of a new transaction tax that Moz wants to impose; well that's really hard to frame. So how about an arbitrary ad valorem tax (stamp duty)of some sort. Perhaps 5% of the passing consideration. That gets Moz some tax up front but doesn't really stop the show.
One thing is for sure APC and ENI will be watching, perhaps participating, in what's happening now; it creates a much bigger precedent for them for farming down.
I don't expect an overnight solution but if they drag it out beyond a week or two everybody loses - most of all the people of Moz.

JMHO

[robs12] 02/3/2012 09:34

"The state should have a percentage of participation in consortia or companies that have mining concessions to explore mineral resources that are considered strategic," Bias said.

From July last year...

[liam1om] 02/3/2012 09:23

Good points Talkman2 - I suspect if a tax is imposed Cove will go to court as you said, there is no law in place.

[talkman2] 02/3/2012 09:13

I go back to my original point . If there is an all-share offer for Cove, just paper, how can Cove pay CGT ?
also,how can the Mozambique govt clain CGT on Cove's Kenyan aseets ?

[talkman2] 02/3/2012 09:09

How can they be in a stae of denial when the Mozambique govt don't even have the law in place on this at the moment !

[oldtown] 02/3/2012 09:08

Well if that was the case i would have expected the RNS to state something along the lines of " we are currently seeking to establish our financial obligation to the Mozambique government in the event of transaction occurring".

The RNS seems to gives the impression that they are seeking clarification if a tax will actually occur,clearly it will according to the one person who would know for sure.
It seems Cove are in a state of denial over this..