Countryside Partnerships Share Discussion Threads

[olliemagern] 23/1/2020 10:56

With the modular factory now fully operational completions will accelerate throughout the year.
A second factory in 2021 will continue CSP's sector leading growth over the next three years.
Good to see a successful British solid growth company, Britain at its best.

[podgyted] 23/1/2020 07:56

Good Q1 update - everything on track.

[bogdan branislov] 13/12/2019 15:13

Can't be specific, I think that awareness of CSP and the attractions of its partnership business model has been steadily growing over the past year, the fact that Woodford offloaded easily without a price dive suggested a lot of underlying support and interest in CSP. Last but not least, many if not most private investors have been hanging back in cash until after the election, they are now buying in, CSP is at the top of a lot of private investors' buy lists, this should go on for weeks, not quite like today obviously, but more steady gains to come I suspect. Whilst the right thing to do was to stay invested during the election, the next best things is to build a position now asap. But investors don't tend to think like that, they don't like to buy straight after a 5% or 10% gain, so they wait for a dip, they feel better buying into a dip even if the wait for the dip takes a while and they end up paying more by waiting. Consequently, every short dip in CSP's share price will likely be followed by aggressive buying, probably well into the new year. If you had the foresight to spot CSP's value before now and the patience and fortitude to sit tight during the politcal and market uncertainty, then you have earned your gains, they are fully deserved, don't sell yourself short by selling too quickly. I have this suspicion that CSP will become a popular highly priced stock in time, at this point I will exit of course. I will no doubt top slice a little when we reach a fair price, perhaps 70% up from where we are now - i.e. about 70% up from the current price of c465p, but I will allow a portion of my holding to run on onto more expensive territory - probably well over 1,000p, before exiting fully. Bogdan

[eaglebeagle] 08/12/2019 19:44

Woodford held 15% of the shares, the overhand of sales has cleared I believe

[podgyted] 08/12/2019 15:45

Other than the possibility that the market has woken up, finally, to the attractions of CSP is anyone aware of anything else driving the current share price increases?

[bogdan branislov] 21/11/2019 13:30

minerve - just as background, over the past 10.5 years my SIPP is 11x up, c26% average annual growth compounding, so I am no investing numpty. You say it is indefensible. CSP have their way of calculating ROCE, they say there is no standard way, that it is not a statutory or absolutely defined method. On this CSP are correct, but I happen to disagree with them, I think that they should use the standardised approach that most others adopt. But CSP are not trying to deceive here, they are quite open about their approach. My company analysis is now very thorough, not much now tends to get past me. I could find some fault with every listed company. When I discuss a company, even one where I have a multiple six figure holding such as CSP, I like to post objectively, a warts and all approach, not just using the platform to promote in a one sided way. A key skill in investing is knowing what to overlook, if I chose to overlook nothing, I would invest in nothing. If any of the statutory figures were incorrect, that would be very difficult to hide from me, there is nearly always a trail, a crossover into different parts of the financial statements. CSP is a strong company, the statutory reporting solid, the business model protectively positioned and the growth prospects look excellent. CSP is a very low risk business for investors, with considerable upside potential. If you want to go safer than CSP then you need to research for the best building society account, don't hod you breath for the upside there though!

[shallwe] 21/11/2019 10:07

Can't argue with your appraisal.Even the directorate change should be considered neutral. Ian Sutcliffe is a very hard act to follow, but Iain MacPherson is as good as, and likely to be even better in the long run.

[minerve 2] 21/11/2019 10:02

"Still using their fictional way of calculating ROCE where they remove the intangibles out of the equation. But how can you remove intangibles form the ROCE calculation when the acquisition, to which the intangible assets relate, was paid for with real capital."

Absolutely bogdan and really is indefensible. But you, I and others who know better will not be fooled by this stupidity. The FCA should be doing something about this as it is misleading.

[bogdan branislov] 21/11/2019 09:55

More than happy with these results. Still using their fictional way of calculating ROCE where they remove the intangibles out of the equation. But how can you remove intangibles form the ROCE calculation when the acquisition, to which the intangible assets relate, was paid for with real capital. CSP say that their approach is valid and the ROCE methodology is not statutory, which is actually correct. So we agree to differ - the real number is mid to high 20s%, which is a great number in itself, so why torture the data! Other than that all good. Margins a little better than I expected, order book and growth in land bank/build contracts solid. The key number, which analysts and results highlights ignore these days was the key metric according to Ben Graham - what does he know! - is the growth in shareholder funds. Often companies showing earnings growth show little or no growth in balance sheet equity, i.e. shareholder funds, so nothing extra ultimately left over for shareholders after the dividend. CSP shows growth in shareholder funds of between 13% and 14%, great to see. Currently my largest holding, just slightly larger than my MGNS holding, CSP will remain my largest holding, I see the share price moving up substantially over the next 2 to 3 years - I would be disappointed and a little surprised if the share price did not double bag over the next 3 years - as with all high quality but very under priced stocks, you get huge upside potential alongside considerable margin of safety, that is how you make money from stocks.

[bogdan branislov] 17/11/2019 13:34

Thanks for that KB. Yes I noticed that CSP did very well on the recent IC screens. The two most consistent IC screen performers, of the screens that matter that is, seem to be CSP and MGNS, my two largest holdings. The limitation of IC growth screens is that they over emphasise earnings growth, whilst important, balance sheet equity growth is the key metric and was the growth figure emphasised by Graham and Dodd in Security Analysis. CSP and MGNS both have shown solid balance sheet equity growth, which, for CSP, is particularly good going as the strong growth phase has a habit of pulling on a lot of forward resource and temporarily stretching the balance sheet. Not the case with CSP, which highlights just how cash generative CSP will be as the growth rate settles a little in time. Once the annual results are out, linked to a sensible election result, should see CSP doing very well. I think that CSP will be a great stock to hold over the next 3 to 5 years.

[king_baller] 12/11/2019 20:32

Bogdan. The majority of Woodford’s old holding from WEIF has been transferred to Invesco at market price. As this was previously my major concern here I’ve bought in this week. Frustrating I missed the >20 percent rise following Borris getting an acceptable deal. But I was happy enough to buy a 10 percent portfolio position, with a view to adding on any weakness.

Of note, in addition to topping the IC growth screen recently, CSP also came second in the IC quality screen this week.

[bogdan branislov] 12/11/2019 10:24

The Woodford fund appears to have sold all its CSP holdings, or transferred them to someone else who sold them. Does anyone know what happened here and is Woodford now fully exited?

[bogdan branislov] 07/11/2019 11:29

IC's genuine growth screen was published today. CSP was the highest rated. IC's growth screens actually have a major weakness. They focus on earnings growth and largely ignore balance sheet equity growth. If the earnings don't transfer into shareholder funds then the earnings have no benefit for shareholders. As it happens CSP's balance sheet equity growth has also been very strong and consistent. Interestingly my second largest holding, MGNS, came fourth in the screen, also producing very strong balance sheet equity growth. The fact that these companies have produced such good results during the destructive climate of uncertainty that has prevailed within their respective sub-sectors over recent years, highlights just how solid and well poised these companies actually are. Have the courage of your convictions and remain fully invested.

[bogdan branislov] 12/10/2019 01:05

From 2009 until about 2016/17 I saw my investments grow nearly 10x. Since then I have been treading water more or less with small gains. The stocks I held were and still are the best out there, pretty safe but very under valued. During the quiet last 2 to 3 years, these stocks have piled on the profits and the balance sheet equity growth, i.e. the profits were real, albeit with no price moves to speak of. In other words, my holdings had huge amounts of pent up value. Top of this pile is CSP. The pent up value in CSP is enormous, don't take early profits, CSP has some way to go. If you currently hold CSP, you have passed the two critical investment tests both of being right and of being able to sit tight - it has not been easy to sit tight of late, you deserve your gains, this is just the beginning for CSP.

[killieboy] 11/10/2019 18:36

Any idea as to why the rise today?

[blueclyde] 30/9/2019 19:16

Thank you. I am expecting the shares to trade up to 500p in the next few weeks. As has already been mentioned much of the future revenue is already in the bag so to speak. That along with strong cash generation could make the company a bid target as the revenue growth is fairly certain and growing which another bigger company may want to leverage.

[olliemagern] 30/9/2019 17:22

Current eps f/c for year ending Sept 2020 is 44p, but this could be upgraded now the off site timber frame construction factory is up and running, and completions are set to accelerate next year.

[blueclyde] 21/9/2019 09:15

Does anyone know what the projected earnings are for next year?

[olliemagern] 20/9/2019 16:27

As Sigma provide the financing for their 5000 houses to be built by Countryside over the next three years, CSP's ROCE is bound to improve and look goood. But the main benefit is that the partnership houses are pre sold making CSP almost recession proof.

Looking forward to next years partnership completions accelerated growth, with timber wall, window, insulation and floor systems being quality built off site.

[blueclyde] 19/9/2019 22:32

I am no accountant Bogdan so can not really comment on the ROCE ect. I read the analyst presentation and I believe it states that earnings per share for the year will be 40p, based on analysts expectations so if they are quoting this I imagine they will beat it? I would be interested to know what the expected EPS for next year is as I read somewhere that it will increase considerably due to build timings ect?

[blueclyde] 10/9/2019 21:42

Current years adjusted earnings per share will be 40p with circa 80 million cash on the balance sheet at year end. I expect these to trade towards 400p plus in the coming weeks.

[blueclyde] 04/9/2019 15:01

Barratt Developments put out a decent set of numbers today which confirms the U.K. housing market is fine. Slight pull back but is up 30 percent year to date.We know Countryside are fully reserved for the full year. This share price is going to make a big move soon perhaps when the full year results are spelt out to the market.