Countryside Partnerships Share Discussion Threads

[sif12] 19/5/2020 09:15

Dont think you can fault the management here, but as i mentioned earlier in terms of numbers at best theyll match revenue from first half meaning 16 pence. i think More realistically theyll get to 12 pence total. assuming no further waves of c19.

And yes if we're considering forward look lets say they can get to 8 pence for first half 20/21 and 12 pence for second half? at 20 pence even if you apply a forward PE of 10.. you still only get to a share price of 200.

Factor in buyers will be looking for discounts.

So maybe worth holding for now, but as a new entry price Id be looking for 150-200.

[silkstag] 18/5/2020 13:45

Rampaging losses and negative cashflow, not priced in. Build costs are now 30% up and slower. Value of development land plummeting. Sale prices under attack as multiple unsold units. Customers can smell blood so will demand big discounts. Target share price downgrade to 185p is inevitable imho. DYOR.

[buywell3] 14/5/2020 21:43

300p hit as thought

The WHO are now saying a Covid-19 vaccine may never be found like HIV

It is here to stay

No U shaped recovery buyywell believes

We have entered a minimum 24 month bear market IMO with a 50% loss from the peak

Possibly 36 months until herd immunity is reached ie 50% of world population has had it. This happened in the last virus pandemic 1918 to 1919 Spanish Flu.



Target here 200p IMO

Property is in for a hard time over the next 24 months plus

IMO dyor

[sif12] 14/5/2020 14:34

Minerve, job losses are the short term direct impact. a prolonged recession will effect most. Additionally they build homes for £200k to £1m. and with exposure in central london.

finally, in terms of pricing in- the market for the last few weeks seemed to have recovered on the basis of the V shaped recovery.. its now looking like a u shaped recovery.. i dont believe its all priced in.

[minerve 2] 14/5/2020 14:23

The market is generally forward looking so I would expect April's and May's performance is now already discounted in the current share price I think you will be very lucky to see 130-150 pence going forward because I don't think the demographic being impacted the worst by job losses are generally direct buyers of Countryside homes.

[sif12] 14/5/2020 13:17

Having a brief look over the numbers. although the order book is strong, I doubt how many buyers will want to/ are in a position to complete if they are financially stressed- plus also take into the significant delays to complete builds whilst abiding by distancing requirements, meaning completion being pushed out.

But the key financial that stood out for me, was the the half year profit was 8 pence , 9 pence adjusted.

So even if the second half does as well, earnings will be 19 pence full year.

Bear in mind, only March's impact led to the 40% decline in earnings from H1 2019. so with April and May knocking figures plus a slow return over the proceeding months.. I question whether they will turn a profit at all in H2, but at best likely to be, what 50% of H1 performance= total Year earnings of 13-15pence?

Put a pretty generous Pe of 10 on it, especially in light of the significant prolonged recession and we're looking at an share price of 130-150 pence..

this is the price Id be looking at an entry. Please do feel free to debate any of the points above.

[silkstag] 14/5/2020 10:45

Arai, pleased to hear you made a nice quick gain on CSP. ADVFN is a family.
-15.4% = -57p this morning is a good start to the required -50% = -185p repricing imho

[arai] 14/5/2020 09:40

Joined you on your shorting journey this morning, SS, thank you, just closed now to get back some of my IAG losses.

[silkstag] 14/5/2020 08:33

-9% by 830am is a solid start to the -50% required repricing imho. dyor.

[buywell3] 14/5/2020 08:07

Dropping now though

Queue forming as punters leave stage right

300p today ??

IMO dyor

[buywell3] 14/5/2020 08:04

You won't be buying then

Not dropped much has it

Would have thought 300p was a given if you are correct

Probably today

IMO dyor

[silkstag] 14/5/2020 07:56

lost £29m profit just from 2 weeks lockdown. extra £89m of debt from 2 bad weeks.
bloodbath April to June quarter.
huge downward price adjustment required of 185p = 50%. Profit will flip to huge losses and spiralling debt.
All imho. DYOR

[silkstag] 12/5/2020 11:57

1.5 days to CSP dire market review 7am 14 May in its 1 month late first half numbers to 31 March 2020. Order book and viewings must have collapsed.
Q3 (Apr-Jun) is already half slaughtered and will not improve.
Q4 will be dire at best.
Massive hidden losses already doomed to be incurred.
Share is 125p (33%) over valued.
MANDATORY SELL. All imho. DYOR.

[easwarareddy] 07/5/2020 10:10

Cobr cobra resources get in quick... should see past 4p today. Gold stock with news predicted to see us past 20p. The numbers are massive. Tiny mcap. Might be hard buying in. Hardly any free float. Buy before news imo. News should launch it.

[silkstag] 07/5/2020 10:09

Funding and trading problems being drip fed out. Could get ugly on 14 May.

[silkstag] 06/5/2020 16:59

Half year results to 31-3-2020 now due 14 May - almost a month later than H1 2019.
Lets see what they have to say about order book, reservations rate, completions (only March harmed), net debt.
Share price shot up 100p in past month and I expect that 100p to disappear over the next month. Not CSP management fault. I doubt home counties families are in the mood for viewings, the biggest asset spend of their life and paying top dollar. Grim 12 months ahead for CSP. Not yet priced in. All imho. DYOR.

[grabster] 06/5/2020 13:35

SS - I'm guessing they wanted to incorporate mention of their Salford jv with Sigma, alongside the results, which they now can? In which case no excuse for further delay.

[silkstag] 04/5/2020 10:52

H1 numbers are 18 days late.

[silkstag] 08/4/2020 11:10

Couutryside and Millgate may need to put half-built and completed flats and houses in mothballs for a year. Property research by Savills confirms transactions have collapsed - no surprise. Maybe time to sell and forget about CSP for a year.

[npp62] 27/3/2020 08:25

Be nice to see the Directors buying back the shares they sold in January and February. That would give some confidence going forward. But with the virus holding things back it's understandable. Hopefully it'll be behind us in the next couple of months.

[new_buyer] 15/3/2020 13:42

Doesn't seem to be!!

[npp62] 05/3/2020 23:05

Hellloooo! Anyone in here??!