Costain Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 02/8/2019 13:05

IMO 140p beckons

Hey you .... get your @rse over here

[dickbush] 02/8/2019 13:03

Thanks, sharw. I, obviously, missed that, but it makes a lot of sense. If they get back onto the five year plan outlined in the CEO's Capital Market Day presentation, I'll be very happy. As I said earlier, I know from experience, though, that talk is cheap. Plans are rarely outcomes.

[sharw] 02/8/2019 12:36

With regard to "...cutting (the dividend)... certainly wasn't in my calculations..." if you look at the last prelims you will see that dividend policy is being changed to 2.5x cover. Brokers forecast eps 26.8 and dividend 10.7 (reflecting 2.5x policy) this year for yield 7% @ 153p.

[dickbush] 02/8/2019 11:22

When there is a boom and everyone is scrambling for common stocks, take all your stocks and sell them. Put the proceeds in the bank. No doubt the stocks will go still higher. Pay no attention to this-just wait for the recession which will come sooner or later. When it gets bad enough to arouse politicians to make speeches (about it), take your money out of the bank and buy back the stocks. No doubt they will go still lower. Pay no attention to this. Wait for the next boom. Continue to repeat this operation as long as you live and you will have the pleasure of dying rich.

Where are the customers yachts? First published in 1940, I think. Reprinted in 2006

Works for me.

[dickbush] 02/8/2019 10:55

I've been uninterested in the market for a long time but I thought Costain was cheap enough to go through the inevitable bear market and come out ahead. Aside from Costain I only hold one other share that is an out-and-out gamble, something I've never done before but it's an act of faith in the Chairman's expertise. My exposure to the market on book cost is 9% of my liquid assets and, combined, that is down to 8% on market value. Annoyingly, I sold some of my Dollar holding at $1.25 to buy into Costain. L.O.L.

I'm going to wait to see what the statement looks like on August 21st before carrying on buying. Clearly, at a published yield of 10%, investors don't believe the divi will be held. After stating that they would have an average of £65mil in cash per month end this year, cutting or eliminating it certainly wasn't in my calculations. I guess it is in the institutional seller's. If he's right I'll be buying a lot cheaper with the aim, as always, for a minimum holding period of five years. I don't have Buffett's patience: "Our holding period is forever."

[lonrho] 31/7/2019 16:00

60p that is less than net cash currently and less than net cash if the current assets were realised and all liabilities paid off.

[bamboo2] 31/7/2019 15:47

Clinging onto historical support today.
158.4 was last seen 9/9/2011
Next historical support is approx 120-130

Tp remains approx 60

[buywell3] 31/7/2019 14:59

The COST is going down

Weakening chart ledge

Angle of its dangle worsening

Good them charts eh

[william7093] 30/7/2019 18:40

Could falling profits be anything to do with pushing women into higher positions and value being seen for employees rather than shareholders just a thought

[dickbush] 30/7/2019 15:14

An interesting tug of war between two institutions. Standard Life selling and Ennismore buying. By reputation, Keith Skeoch, now CEO, was a high class fund manager but he's probably far distant from making stock picks these days, and the holding in Costain would be immaterial to their funds. Ennismore have an excellent long term record but are not doing well this year. However, they specialise in small and mid-cap equities. The holding should be a lot more important to their performance. So, they should be giving a lot more time to analysis of Costain's future prospects. But, short term, Standard Life looks more determined to sell than Ennismore is to buy.

Half year results due out on 21st August. New broom will be having a clear out. My fingers are crossed that that doesn't include the divi. However, the triennial review of the pension fund was due on 31st March 2019. With yields on bonds down again since the last review, that isn't likely to make good reading.

Our economic masters seem happy with the idea of lower corporation tax rates and lower interest rates to stimulate growth while ignoring the greater damage to corporate cash flow from the ballooning of pension fund deficits through ever lower bond yields.

[rogerrail] 30/7/2019 11:36

HS3 cost estimate up to £39 billion. If COST JV gets 20-25% of that I would be very happy!

[buywell3] 30/7/2019 10:25

HS2North to HS2South

Starting with HS2Midlands manchester to Leeds (old HS3)

More Slower trains at 125 max stopping at more stations

A different animal costing less
Boris to make an announcement soon

[jimmywilson612] 27/7/2019 18:09

MR Boris looking to open up his wallet is good news for Costain you'd think

[dickbush] 15/7/2019 10:32

Keir Group down another 8% today to a new low. Industry being written off as a total dud. Good.

The UK economy, like most of Europe, is slowing to a halt. I think we should be getting an increase in public spending, including areas Costain works in. Will we? Who knows. Boris is talking about tax cuts.

It will be interesting to see how the new leaders of the EU react to near zero growth in many EU countries. There’s not much room for rate cuts, but can the Germans be persuaded to use Keynesian stimulus? It was anathema last time. Do they yet understand that their trade surpluses imply a responsibility to spend for the good of everyone else? Germany must be very close or even below the 60% government debt/GDP level required by Maastricht.

[dickbush] 15/7/2019 08:56

I started in the investment business working for a company whose investment management division was split between chartists and fundamentalists at a time when chartists were very highly regarded. What I saw over the next few years was that the chartists only made money from selling their services, not from their recommendations. One by one they lost their businesses. Fortunately, I was taught the business by a fundamentalist. To me, chartists are always searching for the last drop of performance to time their entry and exit. I'm only trying to buy cheap with no expectation that it will be the low.


FYI the share I made the most money on in this market had halved from its high in 2007 when I started buying and I was still buying when it halved again by the end of 2009. I then sold some numerous times when it rose strongly and bought them back when it went back down. Some six years after I started buying it,it was bid for and my average price including trading profits was below the low for 2009. I sell the strong and buy the weak. It works for me.

I do not expect to profit every time. I know how to lose money, too. Anyone who says they never lose is either a liar or very, very new to the investment business.


How do I think I could lose on COST? As I said a few days ago, the CEO's recent presentation was incredibly bullish. But, as I've seen many times, talk is cheap. That company I was talking about above made a similar capital markets day statement about what it was going to do over the next few years. If it had, it would have had to be taken over at twice the price.

[william7093] 12/7/2019 21:11

If costain does not get hs2 it will fall to 1 pound

[dickbush] 12/7/2019 19:02

TRCML, I think you have highlighted the main reason for getting involved in Costain. The major players in this industry have variously gone bust or, at least, got into financial trouble, with Keir being the latest example. They've shot themselves in the foot by competing too aggressively on price. Hopefully, the pressure on the competition will lead to a more profitable business for those left standing, but, even if true, we won't see the impact on the bottom line in the short term.

I can wait.

[jonwig] 12/7/2019 13:59

@ TRCML - I meant a recovery plan for the pension scheme. Sorry for being unclear.

Agree with your analysis.