Costain Share Discussion Threads

[thags] 11/9/2024 09:46

I did say we are likely to see a retarce back to around 90p before we get the next move up

[npp62] 11/9/2024 09:17

Then that leaves us time to buy more at a lower price. I'm not in any particular hurry.

[johndoe23] 11/9/2024 09:17

Also ex div tomorrow

[scemer] 11/9/2024 08:51

Bit optimistic sasbod assuming they sell more like 1-2 months

[sasbod] 11/9/2024 07:48

These shares will be done in 1-2 days, demand is so strong.

[this_is_me] 11/9/2024 07:31

We now have a number of institutions who bought at 91p and can now sell at least part of their holding for a quick profit reducing the effective cost of the rest even further. This could easily hold back the share price for some time.

[sasbod] 11/9/2024 06:45

At least this seller is now out of the way, onwards and upwards

[this_is_me] 11/9/2024 06:36

Shares were placed at 91p so why were COST buying back shares at over £1 when they sould have bought £10 million worth (the total buy back programme) at 91p?

[the bounty hunter] 10/9/2024 10:51

Stronger hands will form shareholder base

[owenski] 05/9/2024 15:51

Decent chart, good volume as well.

[mrnumpty] 05/9/2024 13:33

On the front page of today’s Telegraph , the main article is titled “ Sewage leak water bosses to face two years in jail : tougher fines and moves to block bonuses under new Bill to tackle pollution “ . That certainly should drive business to Costain .

[greg the grinch] 05/9/2024 12:18

Hmm... looks like the sellers are drying up and are being replaced by the £2 pt club.

[owenski] 04/9/2024 20:18

Net cash of 198m, I dont think so.

Cash is in the region of 160m, EV roughly 120m, cash ratio approx 54%.

Volume was quite high today though.

[mrnumpty] 04/9/2024 04:57

I realise that the Questor investment tip column in the Daily Telegraph has , according to some , a chequered history , but it tips Costain today as a “ buy “ with , if all goes according to plan , a £ 2 price target . At £ 1.04 a share , Questor points out that Costain is valued at £ 290 million but it has net cash of £ 198 million , meaning Costain is only valued in effect at £ 92 million .

[greg the grinch] 02/9/2024 12:15

I'm sittin and waitin for £2.

It would be great if they announced another £10m share buyback when this one is spent.

Surely there can only be so many short term holders that do not see the big picture?

[owenski] 31/8/2024 08:54

Would think 135p TP would be easily achievable bearing in mind the cash generation here alone based on those consensus figures.

[owenski] 31/8/2024 08:48

On the latest results webcast, Costain's PR guy said he'd put the latest analyst figures on the Costain website, below are the consensus views -


"Date: August 2024

Consensus based on average of research from the sell-side analysts who cover Costain."


......................FY 2024E FY 2025E FY 2026E
Revenue (£m)............ 1260.3 - 1238.3 - 1271.3
Adjusted operating...... 42.3 - - 46.6 -- 50.1
profit (£m)
EPS adjusted (p)........ 12.3 -13.5 -14.6
Net cash at
period end (£m)......... 160.3 - 182.7 - 204.2

[catabrit] 30/8/2024 13:54

I would say this is directionally correct (helped too by how consistently right they have been on Costain in the last 3yrs) but must also be weighted by the knowledge that they are the company broker.

[someuwin] 30/8/2024 09:52

Panmure Liberum have published an excellent 40 page note on COST. Summary below...

Strong momentum Buy Target Price 135.0p

The H1 24 results were strong and ahead of estimates. We make three key points: 1) We expect £158m of net cash in FY 24 (with limited negative working cap.), which is 54% of the company’s market capitalisation; 2) We estimate an improving EBIT margin of 4.4% in H2 (H1 24: 2.5%), with milestones reiterated and a target of 4.5% in 2025, which we believe could be attainable and would be market leading; and 3) Costain remains well positioned to benefit from a strong infrastructure outlook in the UK, particularly in Water, as evidenced by recent contract wins. A CY 25 FCFe yield of 11.9% and CY 25 P/E of 7.3x are simply too cheap, given £158m of expected cash on the balance sheet.

Key points

H1 24 FD EPS was 17% ahead of our estimate and FCFe was £14m, showing strong cash generation. H1 24 DPS of 0.4p declared. H1 24 spot net cash of £166m.

Value drivers

Margin milestones reiterated with a target of 4.5% in 2025, which would be market leading. We estimate an improving EBIT margin of 4.4% in H2 24.

What market misses

Sustainable FCFe >£30m. More than £5bn of work at year-end. Water can double medium term. More neutral working cap than most. No more const’ fixed-price contracts.

Is there value?

TP of 135p based on SoTP. £10m share buyback ongoing. Shares trade at CY 25 P/E of 7.3x. Sustainable FCFe of >£30m gives a yield of >10%, which is too cheap.

[cestnous] 28/8/2024 07:47

Very glad that I didn’t take the IC sell advice a couple of months ago.

[ajbird] 25/8/2024 07:07

Thanks both for the link

[owenski] 25/8/2024 06:39

Clickable link

[ttny2004] 24/8/2024 22:25

https://news.uk.cityam.com/story/2251671/content.html

[ajbird] 24/8/2024 10:57

Is it possible to post it or the link to it please?