Conti.Coal Share Discussion Threads

[saikat] 11/10/2013 15:30

A well managed small coal miner can do well from the Waterberg/Witbank arbitrage.See today's news.


But it has to be well managed both operationally and financially and cannot have a football team array of (mostly pretty useless) non-execs. Although, I don't know how good really the new non-exec Ron put forward by Perth is, but his last firm's performance looks as pathetic in performance as everything that is run from the OKAP stables.

[saikat] 11/10/2013 06:13

Some form of cleansing required before JSE listing - that is my best guess.

[ceepee01] 11/10/2013 00:20

CCC...Announcements
10 Oct 2013
"Cleansing Prospectus".....


CORPORATIONS ACT 2001 - SECT 708A

Sale offers that do not need disclosure...so what does this mean?

[saikat] 10/10/2013 09:40

Botswana Coal Corridor Revisited.

Was looking for good location/transport/port maps on the Botswana/Waterberg coal corridor (geologically they are connected) as their commercial future will get connected at some point in the future.

These are two good maps I could find. Firstly,
hxxp://www.africanenergyresources.com/display/index/sese-coal-power

Grootegeluk is Exxaro's ( or is it Anglo's) mega Waterberg mine to supply some of the mega power plants in Limpopo (like Medupi). You can see Morupule and Serowe on the map.

The second map is here. You can see Mamambula (close to Kweneng license) in it.
hxxp://www.africanenergyresources.com/display/index/sese-export

You can see the ports of Beira, Maputo and Porto Techobanine (yet to be developed) in this second map. The railway corridors are also illustrated.

The Sese deposit of African Energy Resources is real large with coal seam of outstanding thickness, gigantic continuous length, close enough to railway network. The coal is not of outstanding qulity, but can be beneficiated to RB3 spec. which is more than good enough for Eskom or exports.

Watch the news on this company as this should be one of the early movers in the Botswana space. It also has good backers from China through a private equity partner.

But there is a problem. Only about $5million or so of cash. How do you play Botswana with this little cash? Despite all the good attributes, shareholders will be diluted over and over again.

[saikat] 10/10/2013 00:57

RBCT may have record exports this year:

hxxp://article.wn.com/view/2013/10/08/Richards_Bay_Coal_Terminal_poised_for_record_exports/#/related_news

[ceepee01] 08/10/2013 19:29

Who else is going next week? I wonder when the financing info/Penumbra will be released- night before meeting or ...? Probably, knowing Conti's timing it will be when mkts in freefall! But the this is the medium-long game as we know.

[saikat] 08/10/2013 11:16

South East Asia and Coal.

[saikat] 08/10/2013 11:10

South Africa and India - coal connections.

[the heed] 08/10/2013 07:30

Since the Sept RBC prices have gone from `$74 to closing at $81.3 today...

All helps....

[the heed] 08/10/2013 07:18

Cee pee appologies.. not sure what i was thinking..

[saikat] 08/10/2013 05:41

The US shakeout and China regulation.


On Indian and Eskom demand I have no worries for a very long time as there is no serious alternative (at least until Botswana comes through which will take more than a decade). Almost the same is true for China. In Europe, with the collapsed Carbon market and high nat gas prices, coal is more than feasible and this is especially true for some of the Eastern Europen countries like Poland and Czech. Japan, Korea and Taiwan may have some alternatives but it is expensive. Indonesia may run out of coal in a couple of decades.

$85 RBCT will be ideal.

[ceepee01] 07/10/2013 19:32

Heed- why do you think new Director is actually buying now? The Notice appears to be regulatory to confirm that a new director doesn't have any existing interest when appointed?

However, if he is then all the better- several million would show faith!

[saikat] 07/10/2013 18:45

Hypothetically, would you like RBCT January to go much above $85 soon? I wouldn't.
I would love to see RBCT prices to shake around $85 (or nearabouts)madly for a few months and thereby shakeout all the excess capacity in USA , Australia, Russia and Mongolia. However, South Africa, Indonesia, Columbia will be safe at these prices as they are low cost producers.

[ceepee01] 07/10/2013 18:31

I also hope that Mr Turvey is looking at what's happening to BHR re refinancing decisions- they surely can't have failed to notice this...CAN THEY????

I sincerely hope not for all our sakes!

[saikat] 07/10/2013 18:18

Good to see that you and I agree Beingdos.

Meanwhile RBCT January 2014 price crosses $82.
hxxp://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=LVf14&t=BAR&size=M&v=2&g=1&p=WN&d=X&qb=1&style=technical&template=

[beingdos] 07/10/2013 11:50

Saikat I totally agree we need to cut all ties too Perth, It finally looks like Don has realised that. Will wait and see if he can deliver

[saikat] 07/10/2013 10:43

Heed - delist Asx - enlist JSE - kick out Jason as non-exec and purge all connections with the Perth offices - refinance convertibles without new Ponzi traps
- and share price will rise a lot in two months. All of these are possible to do if somebody sees sense and is willing.

For the subsidiary CCL as a whole:
Vlakvaarks (60% economic interest) will generate cash flow of $4 m or more a year. Moving to short term/spot contracts can double or treble this. Current short term spot contracts with ESKOM are thought to be around ZAR300 a tonne at least while medium term contracts are around ZAR200 -220 a ton or so.
Penumbra (100%) will generate cash flow of $15 million (with the hedges) if Penumbra full on gives $53 as FOB costs.

That is a total of $19m or so of annual cash flow for CCL before other kinds of expenses. In hunkered down mode, if admin/marketing expenses (there is no need of these marketing expenses beyond JSE listing; you don't need to pay the proactive investors and similar tipster magazines) can be kept between $3-$4.5m (no reason why not as if management is willing, this should be easy), one should not need Ponzi financiers again. Remember, that admin costs are shared by Sioc-cdt as well.

[the heed] 07/10/2013 08:44

hxxp://www.barchart.com/charts/futures/LVZ13

Futures up again.. can someone explain why if we are producing.. which we are.. our share price isn't correlated somewhat with the price of coal??

[the heed] 07/10/2013 08:04

new director buying.. how much?? seems to be a note of in interest but no figures.. i assume that he has an order in and today it was part filled in Aus.. ( over 1 million traded.. so looks like a good sign /.

[stockologist] 07/10/2013 06:46

down again in Oz

chart close to breaking down to new lows

[lemming2] 06/10/2013 23:41

is anyone actually expecting a turn around any time soon? I remember once that people were talking about companies acquiring assets from COOL for more than the share price.

I'm holding but can't figure out how the share price is supposed to turn a corner.

i could do with a refresher on why I should hold to be honest - anyone able to help me out here?

it feels like the company is making a lot of progress and making money but the share price just doesn't seem to move. kind of concerning tbh. what does it take to get the share price up. already down so much on this - very confused.

[ceepee01] 06/10/2013 20:54

Saikat- I presume that you are not going to 17th Oct Pres'n re your question requests to Heed. I hope Heed can get answers as they are all v relevant-thanks!

I also intend to go and have a number of questions to put to Turvey either in public or in the wings if he is accessible. I think as many s/holders as possible should go as it's a rare opportunity to get to talk to Turvey in person. Hopefully though he will be a bit more realistic than previous speakers!

[ceepee01] 05/10/2013 23:44

ps plus possible Penumbra prod update any day!

[ceepee01] 05/10/2013 23:43

Thanks Saikat. Not just ASX which is very much capped but also AIM seems to be going that way.

I presume Shares mag will have some sort of coverage (hopefully positive) of COOL after London presn'n on 17th which may generate interest plus the usual "leaks" before the day. But who knows...this share needs publicity/interest for volume IMO.

[saikat] 05/10/2013 17:24

Sorry ASX float just means status quo on ASX listing.