Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[funkmasterp12] 12/8/2013 07:23

Big jump in CHW in particular, definitely feels like CRE should catch up.

[madengland] 12/8/2013 07:17

Yes Riv, it's certainly going to be interesting to see the catalytic effect, if any. Good jumps across sector Friday, will it continue this week. Cre looks a bit behind curve, catch up time?

[rivaldo] 12/8/2013 07:09

Another buyback just announced, this time 40k at 101.5p...

Interesting article Madengland - I suspect that with everything that's going on Havas will want to bulk themselves up asap to protect themselves. This may well speed up their acquisition plans.

[madengland] 11/8/2013 21:53

Interpublic to Havas in Play on Ad Deal Fever: Real M&AThe biggest-ever merger between advertising agencies may set off a wave of deals among the competition.Publicis Groupe SA (PUB) and Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) agreed this week to merge, creating a $35 billion company with ad shops including BBDO Worldwide and Saatchi & Saatchi. The announcement sparked rallies in Interpublic Group of Cos. and Havas (HAV) SA to the highest in about a decade and MDC Partners Inc. (MDZ/A) to a record, with Publicis Chief Executive Officer Maurice Levy telling Bloomberg Television the gains are a sign traders see more consolidation."Other large ad agencies are going to look to come together," Richard Tullo, a New York-based analyst at Albert Fried & Co., said in a phone interview. "They'll be competing with this big entity that's now at the top of the food chain."The marriage of Publicis and Omnicom to become the world's biggest agency may spur WPP Plc (WPP) to seek acquisitions of its own to regain its leading position in the industry, according to Bank of Montreal. Havas is one of the last available targets and could lure WPP, according to Natixis. A merger between Havas and Interpublic (IPG) is another possibility, said Liberum Capital Ltd., which also sees MDC Partners as a potential target.Advertising agencies have never before struck a deal this large, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The stock swap means shareholders of Paris-based Publicis and New York-based Omnicom will each hold about 50 percent of the new entity, which the companies said will have a market value of about $35 billion and generated $23 billion in annual revenue last year.Likely TargetsA representative for the companies referred to comments Levy made yesterday to Bloomberg Television's Tom Keene and Sara Eisen. The CEO said yesterday's surge in ad-firm shares shows that investors are betting that more tie-ups between competing agencies "is something that is going to happen."Havas and Interpublic are now "the last two decent-sized targets" left in the industry, Jerome Bodin, an analyst at Natixis, wrote in a July 29 note to clients.Interpublic surged 4.7 percent yesterday to a more than nine-year high of $16.61, leaving it with a market value of $7 billion. Havas gained 4.7 percent to an 11-year high of 5.66 euros, valuing it at 2.2 billion euros ($2.9 billion).Today, Interpublic rose 1 percent to $16.77, while Havas climbed 0.4 percent to 5.68 euros.Although Havas likely prefers to expand more on its own before exploring a sale, WPP would be a natural buyer for the Puteaux, France-based company, lured by the chance to bolster its media-buying foothold, Bodin wrote. Havas's biggest shareholder is French billionaire Vincent Bollore, with a stake of about 37 percent.Building ScaleHavas also could join with New York-based Interpublic, which would find the European company's balance sheet and simplified structure attractive, according to Ian Whittaker, a London-based analyst at Liberum."For IPG and Havas, it would be this whole idea that you build scale," Whittaker said in a phone interview, referencing Interpublic's stock ticker. While Havas has said it doesn't need to get bigger, a marriage of Publicis and Omnicom may make the agencies feel like a tie-up is "something that they need to do," he said."We're not interested in playing the bigger-is-better game," David Jones, CEO of Havas, said yesterday in a phone interview. "Our clients want us to be faster, more nimble, agile and entrepreneurial -- not bigger, more bureaucratic and more complex. I'm sure, however, that there will be more consolidation in the industry and that we haven't heard the last word."M&A NeedMichael Roth, chairman and CEO of Interpublic, wrote in an internal memo to employees following the Publicis-Omnicom deal announcement that "as this weekend's surprising news shows, there's no telling what might take place, but we don't see the need for major M&A to keep delivering on our plan to move Interpublic forward."Tom Cunningham, a spokesman for Interpublic, said the company declined to comment further.MDC Partners (MDCA), a New York-based firm, also could be a potential target, according to Whittaker. The ad agency has a market value of $754 million and brought in $1.1 billion in revenue last year.Shares of MDC Partners jumped 4 percent yesterday to close at a record $24. Today, MDC Partners rose 0.4 percent to $24.10.More Consolidation"Consolidation will continue to accelerate," Miles Nadal, CEO and chairman of MDC Partners, said in a phone interview. "We are a company whose control block remains in the hands of shareholders so I think, by definition, we are a company that anyone could bid for. We hope that it's not in the short term because we love the business and we love our growth prospects but ultimately we work for the shareholders."WPP, with a market value of 15.8 billion pounds ($24 billion), could seek acquisitions to counteract a potential loss of its leading market position after an Omnicom-Publicis deal, Daniel Salmon, a New York-based analyst at BMO, wrote in a July 29 note."Being No. 1 is a significant source of pride for WPP," according to the note. "We don't expect it to sit idly and let this merger define the competitive space."Martin Sorrell, the founder and CEO of London-based WPP, said during an interview with Bloomberg Radio yesterday that he didn't think further consolidation was necessary, adding that the merger of Publicis and Omnicom will spur their clients to reassess their contracts."There's a state of equilibrium that gives us a chance really to build organically," Sorrell said.WPP fell 0.8 percent to 1,173 pence.'Overwhelming Advantage'Dentsu Inc. (4324), which acquired British advertiser Aegis Group Plc this year for 3.16 billion pounds, also could be driven to pursue deals to bulk up even further, according to Brian Wieser, a New York-based analyst at Pivotal Research Group.Publicis and Omnicom will enjoy an "overwhelming advantage when it comes to pricing," Wieser said in a phone interview. The other major entities "don't want to be left out."There's only a 50 percent chance that Publicis and Omnicom get the regulatory clearance they need to complete the deal, said Albert Fried's Tullo. Even if the transaction is blocked by U.S. or French officials, that won't stop others from attempting takeovers, he said."They're going to get a lot of scrutiny" from regulators, Tullo said. "That doesn't mean there's not going to be more consolidation."To contact the reporters on this story: Tara Lachapelle in New York at [e-mail]; Brooke Sutherland in New York at [e-mail] contact the editor responsible for this story: Sarah Rabil at [e-mail] out more about Bloomberg for iPhone:

[funkmasterp12] 11/8/2013 19:04

Edit: talking nonsense, ignore me =)

[madengland] 07/8/2013 11:50

Looks like the aim isa movement slowing and good support at £1

[madengland] 05/8/2013 20:36

Hi Riv, yes the aim share one for sure, I dropped a few cre in isa today for exactly that reason, the pressure may go on a while so looking to pick back up hopefully a few pence cheaper if possible

[rivaldo] 05/8/2013 18:35

Who cares - volumes are tiny, maybe a bit of profit-taking after a great run, people selling a few in their ISAs to raise funds for AIM shares, etc etc.

Forecasts remain at 12.1p EPS with a 3.9p dividend this year.

Still very cheap imho.

[smithie6] 05/8/2013 16:37

cre having a bit of a rough day

any news ?

[madengland] 05/8/2013 08:14

Yes good to see Riv! It's about a year since havas got on board......time for a full on offer?

[rivaldo] 05/8/2013 07:16

RNS - good to see the buybacks continuing, with another 25k bought at almost 104p. Hopefully this reflects CRE's confidence going forward that the current share price is bleedin' cheap:

[madengland] 01/8/2013 19:29

Well smithie therein lies the dark reality of CRE, Don Ego has done a terrific job of feathering his own nest over the last decade. The remuneration committee have rewarded him handsomely for decisions that have not added any shareholder value. That said the company is solid, unloved (for the above IMO), great value, in a good sector at this time, havas with a stake and a CEO on the cusp retirement. So now maybe the time suits for him to max the share price? I am cynical but timing is everything and think this is the time

[smithie6] 01/8/2013 16:52

stroke of luck then that the 2 execs. their piles of share options around 60p !

expect the employees wish their options were priced at the same price as those of the 2 exec. dirs. !...and that the employee share options were not just being used to make money for the 2 dirs....by boosting the share price via the buyback

[rivaldo] 31/7/2013 10:41

News - good to see the buybacks restarting, with 30k shares at an average 103.5p:



Evidently the company believes the share price will be moving up from here.

[madengland] 31/7/2013 05:04

Yes Riv, I guess most would top slice holdings at a certain point though. I'm convinced we will see a takeover this year.

[rivaldo] 30/7/2013 10:53

The new major shareholder list is interesting - over 3%'ers are now 66% of the company, so the free float is really quite small and could lead to quite a sharp uptick if trading continues to improve as predicted:

Number of shares Percentage of capital

Ruffer LLP 7,346,208 12.01
Artemis Investment Management LLP 7,277,269 11.90
FIL Limited 6,129,290 10.02
Majedie Asset Management Limited 6,065,219 9.92
Havas UK Limited 3,792,715 6.20
Western Selection P.L.C. 3,000,000 4.91
Barclays Stockbrokers 2,258,378 3.69
Mr D H Elgie 2,116,113 3.46
Ignis Investment Services Limited 2,099,799 3.43

[madengland] 30/7/2013 07:31

Thanks Riv.......Add in two questions.....,,1. After years of recession are we seeing real shoots recovery and if so, what valuation could this sector command? 2. Considering that the CEO wishes to retire, the company generates cash and has no debt, Havas are building a stake and a large merger just been announced in sector. Do people feel a takeover looks likely?When I consider those two questions, I personally see a target price quite substantially higher :-))))))

[rivaldo] 29/7/2013 22:33

Useful to see some broker comment from today's Shareprophets article:

"This has seen house broker, Liberum, reiterate a 125p per share fair value, noting that, at 105.5p, "Creston is attractively valued at FY14E c.8.4x (price-earnings multiple) compared to its peers. It has a c.48% exposure to digital which is growing at a rapid rate and offers margin enhancing opportunities".

There is also a solid balance sheet and circa 3.7% forecast dividend yield (and last year's full-year dividend of 2.67p per share to be paid on 12th September to shareholders on the register on 2nd August)".

Since news of the other pitches for Government work is due "in the coming weeks", perhaps we might even get an RNS or RNSNON if they're material enough.

[madengland] 29/7/2013 19:59

Been busy with business all day, just re read the Update, and think I am adding. The underlying tone is definitely of the outlook is extremely positive IMO, and tallies with what everyone across the service sector I know is saying, as are companies. Good times soon, for how long is a question but not for now

[funkmasterp12] 29/7/2013 16:13

A-ha. Cheers Riv, apologies for the oversight. The overall conclusion was correct though =)

[rivaldo] 29/7/2013 15:07

Funkmaster, your post 4072 is extremely intriguing, despite being incorrect :o))

The 6/8/12 RNS shows that Havas increased their holding to 3,739,318 shares from 3,179,192 shares.

However, the new Annual Report shows that Havas are now up to 3,792,715 shares, so they're slowly - very slowly! - increasing their holding:

hxxp://ar2013.creston.com/governance/directors-report/

[madengland] 29/7/2013 13:19

Sorry pressed post early, bold prediction, buy out before end year and closer to 2 than 1

[madengland] 29/7/2013 13:18

Don Elgie long muted to be looking to retire. Just wonder if the employee share save scheme a chance to let a few of them profit. Is DE in chat with havas? Could the co location be something they asked him to do. Bold