Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 18/6/2013 12:21

Hi Funkmaster. Cheers for that - a very generous post. I believe that Havas will bid for CRE, it's just a matter of time due to CRE's digital revenues, though that time may be next month or two years away.

Re Communisis, I actually bougbt them myself at from memory 30-32p and sold at 52.5p-53p. The forward P/E is nearer 10, and SIV this morning issued a not-so-good trading statement which may reflect on them. CMS is a good company with quality management, but I'm not sure it'll ever achieve a P/E much higher than 10 given its type of work. I may well be wrong, but will stay on the sidelines for now.

Two stocks I believe are very cheap are SID (who I met last week) and RNWH. ETO are similarly good value imho and ISAble. Finally, if you want a sleep-easy-at-night stock, try VLE, which has more cash than its m/cap, made a fantastically cheap acquisition recently and has been buying back shares like billy-o.

[funkmasterp12] 18/6/2013 11:49

Wow, I got this 100% totally wrong and hugely regret selling at 85p now. Big congratulations to all holding and I sincerely hope Havas take more interest in this now.

On a separate note (and forgetting the fact I called this wrong!!), have a look at CMS (Communisis) - in a similar sector and about to be promoted to the FTSE Small Cap. ISAble, trading on a fwd PE of 9 and they announced a big restructuring yesterday which has impact on fwd EPS forecasts as well.

[rivaldo] 18/6/2013 10:09

CRE's DJM Digital expanding into New York:

hxxp://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/djm_digital_opens_new_york_office_482970

"DJM Digital opens New York office
Will work alongside Creston Health's US companies
13th June 2013

DJM Digital (DJM) is officially taking its expertise to the US with the opening of a New York office.

The agency, which provides consultancy, strategic and creative solutions predominantly to the healthcare/pharmaceutical industry, will work with Creston Health's US companies to apply its expertise in the US market.

DJM managing director, Dominic Marchant, said: "The US opportunity is really exciting because it's a different regulatory set up, so there's greater scope to do possibly more adventurous things. London is still perceived as a hot house of digital creativity and we will definitely be keen to demonstrate that when we talk to companies across the Atlantic. We bring something that isn't already available so we're fulfilling a real need for them.

While recruiting is underway for someone to head up the US DJM Digital business, members of the London team will be seconded to the New York office to help up-skill existing Creston Health staff.

While there are a lot of agencies that specialise in digital and a lot of integrated agencies that also bring a digital offering, Marchant believes none of them do what he does at DJM.

"Digital is undoubtedly one of the most cost-effective ways of communicating messages in a compelling way to a large audience," said Marchant. "But it becomes really exciting when it is part of an integrated campaign because digital on its own doesn't really mean much until you bring it in to the bigger picture.

"It's exciting to be at the forefront of digital technology and produce clever solutions, which effectively deliver client messages to their target audiences."

etc"

[madengland] 18/6/2013 08:24

It's gone like the Mary Celeste on this board and volume wise. Surprised no tips in weekend rags

[rivaldo] 17/6/2013 07:12

Cheers Madengland, will listen later. EDIT - ah, same interview as linked to before!

RNS this morning confirming the first buybacks last Friday at almost 98p - just 40k to start with, so most of Friday's volume was non-buyback. Hopefully a lot more buying back still to come:

[madengland] 16/6/2013 22:46

In case you have not listened yet

[rivaldo] 14/6/2013 12:48

Buybacks are normally announced any time of day from my experience once they're done, but absolutely, they could be announced at the end of the day or Monday morning. My sense is that there haven't been any yet, but I could be wrong.

[markie7] 14/6/2013 12:07

buy backmight be announced at the end of the day - you don't know

[rivaldo] 14/6/2013 12:02

Not yet it seems - they'd have to be announced as and when.

Which is good news - the price is rising because of demand (and lack of sellers). If we get buybacks too they'll hopefully be the cherry on the cake :o))

[markie7] 14/6/2013 11:45

buy backs probably kicking in?

[rivaldo] 14/6/2013 11:40

Hi mad - volumes aren't actually very high. It's more encouraging however that sells are now achieving 103p, a full 1p above the bid price, which augurs well.

[madengland] 14/6/2013 10:34

Thank you riv. Do you have level 2? A lot buying at present, is there a big sell out there

[rivaldo] 14/6/2013 09:46

Just noticed in my e-mails that the Shareprophets article has gone out on ADVFN's free share tip service, which should crate more interest - here's the concluding part:

"Earnings per share were actually increased to 14.66p (prior year: 12.34p) as the company benefitted from a tax credit following a positive conclusion to an HMRC enquiry. A maintained full-year dividend of 2.67p per share is being recommended to be paid on 12th September to shareholders on the register on 2nd August, meaning a 4.9% increased total payout of 3.67p per share for the year.

With £6.53 million additionally received as a reverse premium and contribution to the agreed dilapidations obligation for the group's new London office, even after particularly £2.22 million paid out in dividends, a net £1.24 million of acquisition spending, £0.94 million of property-related costs and £0.93 million of tax paid, net cash was increased by £11.29 million to end the year at £11.20 million. The net current asset position was strengthened by £9.41 million to £7.45 million, with total non-current liabilities £0.20 million higher by the year end at £7.24 million.

To this solid balance sheet position the company added "we are confident that we have good momentum for a successful year ahead... To build on this momentum, we will look to continue to invest in growing the business through a combination of organic growth, selective acquisitions, new start-ups and innovative product development".

With a 10 year average tenure of its top 20 clients and increasing revenue derived internationally (35% of total revenue, up from 30% in the prior year) and from digital (48%, up from 41%), researcher Edison today notes "Creston trades at a substantial discount to its peers of over 30% on EV/EBITDA... While some level of discount is justifiable on the grounds that growth has not yet come through to earnings (and acknowledging some execution risk), we would argue that the current position is overdone. A 15% discount equates to a share price of 123p, a level backed up by our DCF analysis". At a current 93p share price, the shares still potentially trade on a price-earnings multiple of less than 7.5x and yield more than 4%. Although there remains obvious macro-economic-based risk for such a business, the internationalisation and digitalisation of revenues and the company's confidence for its year ahead reassure that the shares continue to offer good value."

[interceptor2] 14/6/2013 09:18

Just been reading a good book riv :0)

ic2...

[madengland] 14/6/2013 09:14

Yes added a few looks good

[rivaldo] 14/6/2013 08:23

Nice start...ic2, your charting skills are obviously unparalleled :o))

The chart does point to a run up to 120p from here.

[madengland] 14/6/2013 08:22

Yep lots more to come I think

[interceptor2] 13/6/2013 22:41

The chart looks very strong now, with a break out continuation confirmed and next resistance at 120p. Supported by good volume of 511k today and 371k yesterday, when the previous weeks only saw a maximum of 50k and often only 2k days.

ic2...

[smithie6] 13/6/2013 17:14

Riv
"Nice - Liberum have today raised their target price to 125p from 120p:"


Liberum
...they are the people doing the share buy back for CRE !!

if so, the regulations should be altered to disallow that imho
----

"Further to the announcement made on 4 February 2013, the Group can confirm it has received a positive uptake from the launch of a new three year Save As You Earn share incentive scheme for its UK employees (the "Scheme").

The Programme will commence with effect from today" (ie. 12th June )

.....looks mixed up to me....
should have started the buying back in Feb. imo..since they knew then the number of shares they needed.....and the co. already had the authority in place...

could have bought the shares needed at 80-90p and not 101p
and paid 15% less.

[madengland] 13/6/2013 16:21

Looks set for a couple double digit rises like the summer of 2011. Too obviously under valued, small trade down today but very quickly rising again. Looks good boys and girls

[rivaldo] 13/6/2013 15:50

Nice - Liberum have today raised their target price to 125p from 120p:

hxxp://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4613395/FLASH-Liberum-Capital-reiterates-buy-on-Creston-target-raised-from-120p-to-125p.html

[cfro] 13/6/2013 11:39

Bit of a surge now..

[madengland] 13/6/2013 11:20

Thanks both, as QS99 says.....,interesting at this price. Hopefully a rise on cards. Cre is always (and on past history rightfully IMO) undervalued against peers, but sometimes the discount is too deep. Believe this is one of those times. 30 - 40%?

[rivaldo] 13/6/2013 10:53

Excellent link Steve, thx.

The numbers on CRE's inclusion in the Government's procurement roster sound terrific:

- should become a top 5 client within a 3 year period
- there's a £500m budget
- the Government has decreased the number of its agencies from 359 to 27, of which 3 are CRE's
- CRE are included in 3 of the 5 rosters, more than any other group, and they're currently working on 6 pitches

Other worthwhile points:

- DE believes their digital growth is higher than any of their peers
- the average tenure of their top 20 clients is 10 years. Lovely stuff in investment terms.
- the Insight division has been well and truly turned around now.