A few director buys in the last few days post trading update including most important a significant buy from the CEO announced this morning. Follow the money... |
Started building a holding here. |
Anyone know why this has slipped below the IPO price? Bermuda corporate tax rate pressure maybe? |
Also added a bit here as been a bit soft recently - probably just too under the radar for most investors so not expecting any fireworks here, but confident this will do very well over next couple of years. I agree insurers such as this look a good steady place to invest in right now. Also hold BPM which is a fund of mainly insurance companies, which are all performing well, and trading at big discount. |
I've doubled up. With all the hot money flying around decent insurers are being overlooked. |
Yes, targeting a 5-6% dividend payout from this year. If they deliver 15% ROE, coupled with a rise in the price/book value, you could see a very decent return over next 2-3 years. Should also be largely uncorrelated to the wider market/economy which is another attraction. |
Yes, it’s certainly interesting. They have put together a quality team straight away and have already underwritten lots of business so should be profitable and pay a dividend in year 1. I purchased because Aberforth backed the IPO. That was good enough for me and so I did less due diligence than normal. |
Thanks for setting up. It's been mentioned in a few recent factsheets from some very decent fund managers - Miton, JO Hambro and Merchants, so I've had my eye on it.
Sounds very interesting proposition - insurance rates have increased a lot over past few years, and especially since Covid, as capital has left industry. Future returns from this point of the cycle have previously been very attractive (around 20%and ROE). However, the listed names in this space trade at around 1.5x book value and have a lot of liabilities (existing claims) which limits their ability to capitalise on the opportunities. Conduit allows you to get in at book value and with a clean balance sheet. Sounds very interesting in theory. I guess as long as start up costs aren't too high and they get the right people/infrastructure in place it should do well. |
Thought I would start a thread on this new insurer. I swapped out from Helios Underwriting PLC into this today as I think it has better prospects. Thanks to Aberforth Partners LLP and their latest factsheet for bring it to my attention, as I seem to have missed this listing. If its a good enough IPO for Aberforth to back, then its good enough for me. Excellent industry veteran board, Ken Randall as a Non Exec and chunky fundraise in December looks good. Any thoughts? |
I feel sorry for all those managers who bought options at 160! |
Farewell then Creston:
You brought me reasonable profits, much boredom and disappointment overall. I had hoped that your blue chip client base and decent fundamentals would bring in first stronger growth and latterly a competing bid, but sadly it was not meant to be.
On to the next bid :o)) |
Interesting to see the mid-price now above the 125p offer price. Hopefully indicative of something happening... |
Exactly Graham. As I said in an earlier post, DBAY are not a trade buyer - they are an "investment value advisor".
I daresay if someone else came in with a decently higher offer they wouldn't be averse to taking the money and running. |
But with DBAY already holding a significant amount, the chance of another offer is relatively low - unless DBAY are playing the market and trying to flush out an offer high enough to make it worth their while to unload. |
The other point here is that for European agencies - I'm thinking particularly of Havas - CRE is a lot cheaper to buy now than it was a few months ago given the pound's weakness.
I'm holding to see what happens, as at worst the DBAY offer will go through and at best....a bidding war! Well, we can hope anyway.... |
Offering no more than the share price was this time last year.!! |
...good luck to holders....hopefully you get a higher offer |
Good point - i note the irrevocables are under 7% so all is not lost/over yet
Cue bidder number 2 please |
Cheers QS99. This analyst comment below backs up my thoughts that 125p is an absolute steal - the usual industry multiple would be 50% higher than this, equating to a price of around 180p.
Perhaps we may yet get further action here. DBAY are an "investment value advisor" - I daresay if someone else came in with a decently higher offer they wouldn't be averse to taking the money and running:
"1001 GMT
Shares in Creston jump 31% to 123p after the advertising and public relations company agreed to be bought by funds controlled by its shareholder, the investment management company DBAY Advisors for 125p a share. The price, which values the company at GBP75.8 million, equates to an enterprise value of around 5.5 times Ebitda, which is well short of the "reasonable industry multiple" of 8 times Ebitda, says N+1 Singer analyst Jonathan Barrett. Has a buy rating and 135p target price." |
I wonder if all are happy with this tho.....not a huge amount of irrevocables....Riv sums it up well IMO |
....DBAY offer finally happened..
Small/low premium imho.
Shareholders phps had a fair downside risk if another bad trading RNS issued (happened before) but only a small upside gain 30%.....for me it was a bad/dull risk reward....
At least Don Elgie made at least 6M out of Creston imho via benefits and shares !!
----
(Always a concern for me at such moments is whether any dirs agreement gets 'bought' by any secret deal from the buyer, although phps not applicable this time) |
Not so pleasant for all the CRE managers who bought stock at over 160! |
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