Concurrent Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 20/11/2024 21:12

FT - 20/11/24

Asian arms makers lead defence stock rally in bet on global rearmament

Asia’s arms makers and naval shipbuilders are leading a global surge in defence stocks this year as investors bet that the region’s companies are primed to lead a rearmament boom.

Triple-digit share price increases for big arms companies listed in South Korea and Japan have pushed them into the top 20 gainers on the MSCI All-Country World index for 2024, as defence-related stocks have gone on the march globally from Norway to Brazil this year.

The share moves underline a darkening in the global security order. US allies in Europe and Asia are bracing for Donald Trump’s second presidency to push them to pay more for their own defence. Threats from Russia and China have already forced a reversal in decades of cuts to arms budgets.

Shares in Hanwha Aerospace, South Korea’s largest defence group, have tripled this year to a market value of nearly Won18tn (close to $13bn), leaving them in dollar terms just behind Nvidia among the MSCI All-Country World’s biggest gainers.

Continued....

[philly cheesesteak] 18/11/2024 12:39

No surprise on the lack of liquidity, personally I've never seen a small cap shift from a pipeline in the tens of millions to one of around £1b. How does the market start to price in that change in scale?

If we assume that the £1b figure quoted is the lifetime value of the design wins they are going for + assume an average lifetime of 7 years, then adjust for the estimated 50% success rate (thanks for flagging that again Simon) then we get a potential per annum revenue impact of £71.5m.

So on paper, it appears that there is line of sight on getting to £100m revenue. The main uncertainties are around execution & timing. It is a fairly unusual situation to say the least.

[t-raider] 18/11/2024 10:01

Liquidity must be getting tight with such drastic moves on small volume. Still expecting trading update this week or next.

[foetus in your brain] 18/11/2024 09:07

Very positive price action again. Wish I had more!

[simon gordon] 15/11/2024 18:50

IMC Q&A - 15/5/24:

"What is your current sales pipeline status, and what is your average conversion ratio?"

"Previously, I mentioned securing eight design wins. Additionally, there are four other opportunities where customers have down-selected us but have not yet secured their own contracts, so we haven’t included those in our figures.

Overall, we were pursuing about 20 significant opportunities, and our conversion rate for these high-impact deals was approximately 50%. This is an excellent performance and highlights our strong competitive positioning. It also suggests we could potentially expand our focus to pursue opportunities we might have previously overlooked.

This year, we aim to exceed that conversion rate. Of course, our broader pipeline includes a variety of opportunities that may not be classified as major design wins. As opportunities progress through their respective maturity stages in our pipeline, a 50% conversion rate is a reasonable expectation and not atypical for our process."

From - 35.25 minute-mark:

[nchanning] 15/11/2024 08:03

From my favourite trader I learned a very valuable lesson from the late great Bill Berger (most wouldn't know him). The most telling part of a stock's price action is how it behaves on pullbacks. He said to me.. "son, I buy tennis balls and sell eggs." And that one sentence has made me a personal fortune.Looks we have a tennis ball here lads

[t-raider] 15/11/2024 07:29

Excellent video and enjoyed the insight offered. Trading update in a week or two should further illustrate progress. Exciting times!

[simon gordon] 14/11/2024 17:54

Stephen Newton at ELIX exemplifies the qualities of an "intelligent fanatic." He listed ELIX in 2020 at 217p per share, which has since surged to 760p, with a clear vision of transforming ELIX into a billion-pound company.

When Miles joined, the share price hovered around 92p. While it hasn’t seen significant movement since his arrival, we seem to be on the cusp of an exponential growth phase. A chart trajectory akin to the Curtis-Wright curve would be poetic.

These visionary leaders share their aspirations openly, inviting others to judge them by their progress toward those goals. Since 2020 and 2021, Stephen and Miles have delivered on their promises, and now there’s hope that the CNC share price might start catching up to ELIX's impressive pace.

[simon gordon] 14/11/2024 17:04

Philly,

I guffawed when Kim stated the billion-pound pipeline.

Like you say, sensational!!

[owenski] 14/11/2024 17:03

Thanks for posting the video. Excellent watch.

[philly cheesesteak] 14/11/2024 16:56

A sensational update.

The billion pound pipeline is a real eye opener, I've been bullish here since I found CNC early in the summer, but that is way beyond my expectations & suggests the revenue ramp up could be way ahead of the current forecasts.

I also think the IP strategy is spot on.

'Over time we will develop that IP portfolio to be truly outstanding'

As others have said, from £125m market cap it promises to be quite the journey.

[simon gordon] 14/11/2024 15:43

igoe,

Yeah, it's going to be quite the journey. There is a mega tailwind from defence spending, led by an Intelligent Fanatic, and a huge market to target.

[igoe104] 14/11/2024 15:35

Definitely a company to hold for the longterm and add on any weakness. Looking forward to the journey over the next few years..

Unfortunately traders offloading this afternoon, what ever happened to being patient...

[igoe104] 14/11/2024 14:57

Introduction to CNC video just posted by Pi world.

Fantastic ambition from miles wants CNC to be a multi billion company...

[simon gordon] 13/11/2024 20:01

Wonder if the new order is from Hanwha Systems via VME Tech in South Korea:

Hanwha Systems is providing IVS(Integrated Vetronics System) which plays the role of brain for various maneuvering, firing, air defense and weapon systems operated to maximize fighting capabilities at the ground battlefields.

Our engineers are currently developing Warrior Platform that enhances each combatant’s mission performance capabilities by applying advanced technologies to soldier’s individual gears as well as Remote Control Solution that is the key to operating unmanned ground systems.

In order to help the Land Forces maximize their fighting strengths, Hanwha Systems is offering hyper-connected, automated, intelligent and unmanned land system solutions.



-----

Cavendish 12/11/24:

The contract, secured within Concurrent’s Systems business unit in Los Angeles, is worth $3.72m and will see the business supply rugged systems for use in armoured vehicles, specifically armoured vehicle demonstrators. With the capability of these systems, these demonstration vehicles could inform the industry’s future decisions about the role of new technologies such as AI and autonomous operations within such vehicles in the future.

The rugged systems supplied as part of this new contract will be used in next-generation armoured vehicle demonstrators. These systems could be used to evaluate and operate new technology solutions such as AI applications and autonomous vehicle software. Autonomous AI system could be used to operate vehicles in challenging scenarios or in areas where satellite communications and positioning systems are impaired. The delivery of Concurrent’s finished systems to the customer is due to commence in 2025, working closely with a local sales partner.

-----

About Hanwha Aerospace

A subsidiary of Hanwha Group, a Fortune Global 500 company, Hanwha Aerospace is the largest aerospace and defense company in South Korea. With the reputation of South Korea’s only aircraft engine maker and a global provider of advanced military and commercial aircraft engines, Hanwha Aerospace is spearheading the country’s space projects such as KSLV-II. Hanwha Aerospace has merged its subsidiary Hanwha Defense, the maker of world-renown K9 Self-Propelled Howitzer and Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicle, to expand its footprint in the global defense market. The company has also acquired the Hanwha Munitions to develop and provide ammunition, precision-guided missiles, and other cutting-edge weapons systems.

[nchanning] 13/11/2024 13:00

Takes an institution that's really hungry for stock to get a breakout like this on AIM . Always some stretched punters looking to take a profit on any share that does well

[philly cheesesteak] 13/11/2024 12:22

The 420k buy at £1.43 confirms that there is some significant institutional interest here, I'd guess they wanted to see evidence that the systems business was executing successfully before buying in? At £120m market cap CNC are still tiny vs the ambitions that Miles has, remember that he sees £100m revenue as a 'meaningful waypoint', at that level of turnover these prices will look like a speed bump.

If we are trading as far ahead of expectations as I hope / guesstimate then that 197p share price could be here a lot sooner than anticipated.

[simon gordon] 13/11/2024 11:38

Hopefully, CNC's share price will start to resemble the rocketing Curtis Wright share price of recent years.

Cavendish - 2/9/24

We compare the valuation of Concurrent Technologies to a group of broadly comparable companies, with the most comparable generally having a much larger market value. Despite the larger size of some the more direct comparable companies, none have the expected levels of growth of Concurrent Technologies. The main comparable companies, as shown in Figures 12 and 13, are AMETEK Inc, Mercury Systems Inc and Curtis Wright Corp., all in the US. Applying the average Yr2 EV/EBITA multiple to Concurrent Technologies, the implied share price is 197p, a potential 61.5% upside from the current 122p level.

At 197p, the FY25E P/E would be 30.9x, a 4.3% discount to the immediate peer group average P/E of AEMETEK, Mercury Systems and Curtis Wright. We feel this is justifiable given the scale of long-term revenue growth ahead, with increasing profit margins. We have taken a conservative approach to our forecasts in future years, particularly out as far as FY27E.