Columbus Energy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[nexus7] 29/9/2018 10:13

Oil on Biggest Tear in Decade as Global Supply Cushion Vanishes

► Traders bracing for $100-a-barrel crude as Iran sanctions bite
► Saudis, Russians see no need to augment existing supply lines

Oil posted the longest string of quarterly gains in more than a decade as impending supply disruptions threaten to fracture a global market with little margin for error.

Futures rose 1.6 percent in New York on Friday while London-traded crude racked up its fifth quarterly advance, a streak not seen since the first half of 2008. This historical echo comes as consumers once again eye supply disruptions and worry about the availability of backup supplies, just as they were a decade ago when the benchmark hit an all-time high above $147...



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WTI: $73.25

[offerman] 28/9/2018 11:07

Cheers Smoggy. It certainly does appear that it could come good as several people including Leo have stated that the area is awash with oil. When they were showing the seismic FTG slides at the previous presentation showed distinct echoes of huge areas of interest. I think the drill for 12,000 feet was between 2m to 4m which I think is far cheaper than the original quoted costs. I think they also get access to the best rig in the area with high-tech. Maybe the problems experienced in the 60s might in part hsve been down to equipment as well as terrain. Nothing is a guarantee and it could be that they drill that again and get similar problems. But they will be the best team on the job led by Leo who has chosen the rig negotiation. I'm sure he will choose the best team for that drill. Like you said and I agree that it's high risk but massive reward . And it won't be the middle of next year looking at it it does now look to be 1 1/2 to 2 years time. But before then maybe the shallower drills might encounter some good oil shows finds results which could create further interest give them a good idea of geology and where to drill. So until then maybe the material deal that Leo said would be even bigger than SWP The gold deal May yet come off before year end or end of the first quarter of 2019. So SWP would be just a bonus if the massive deal comes to fruition soon which will add goodness knows how many barrels of oil per day depending on the deal. Then there are all the well reactivation's from the three acquisitions licenses . It does look and it's something I've come to expect just from experience that anything that is stated is quoted always add minimum six months to whatever spoken about up to 2 years. A lot could happen before the next two years until SWP is drilled to 12,000 feet. The house brokers I know many people I divided on their opinions but they somehow have plucked a figure out of the sky of 25p people have said that is the target price for the next year. So what ever they are expecting to get that price they expecting that before the end of 2019 which would be very nice indeed. The news this coming up day on the 10th of October probably won't be any great shakes. It might even be just a damage limitation process for the poor share price and the much worse than expected goudron figures due to problems out of Leos hands. It could also be the other way that the equipment and techniques brought in to resolve the sand issues can actually resolve The problems they encounter. Not long to wait now to find out exactly what is what. I don't expect the share price to go much lower than where is if there are any small surprises to the plus side that should help their share price where is any mediocre news does seem to be already priced in from where the share price was before for long time at 5- 6p range. It could touch down to 3.8 I guess if it did get down to 3.65 again I would definitely be tempted to buy some more as I think it won't go much lower than that especially as fundraising has been ruled out many times by Leo. The good thing is as well is that if there was some surprise medium term for insuring new shares then we would be involved by way of an open offer as they did before and also resolution five blocked.

[smoggyg] 28/9/2018 10:53

I think the SWP will come good Offerman,IF Cerp drill successfully to 12000 ft. The trouble is when a deep drill was tried in the 60s the drill bit was lost down the hole and the Herrera sandstone deep was never reached,the attempt was abandoned. It is expensive to drill that deep and highly risky BUT the rewards could be game changing for Cerp. Lenigas once called the SWP deep the '800lb gorilla' field. A JV or a cash raise is likely to be needed for a deep drill though,although a shallow drill could probably be financed out of income. The high risk but high reward deep drill won't be for a year or two imo or maybe later or even never,who knows.

[offerman] 28/9/2018 10:03

Hi Smoggy,Maybe if a material deal does happen then it spreads the risk incase SWP doesn't pan out . Also the production fromMaterialDeal could pay the way for the deep well. Only thing I felt slightly disappointed in was the 18-24 month statement about SWP as I thought drilling was 2ndH 2019 of they hit good quality oil and a lot of it that in itself would be transformational so why the 18-24 month statement about that .

[offerman] 28/9/2018 09:58

Hi Carp,I'm interested in going . Do you know the venue?

[edgein] 28/9/2018 09:47

Carp,

Might be a good one to pass on to those attending on 10th of October, perhaps you'll get your answer there.

Regards,
Ed.

[nexus7] 28/9/2018 09:36

Oil Rises as U.S. Says No Plan to Tap Emergency Stockpiles

► Energy secretary says market has priced in Iran sanctions
► SPR release would have ‘a fairly minor and short-term impact’

Oil rose a day after the U.S. Energy Secretary ruled out tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, compounding concerns that sanctions on Iran will tighten markets.

Futures in New York gained 0.8 percent Thursday. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said Wednesday that the government isn’t planning to tap emergency stockpiles to prevent prices from surging when American sanctions on Iranian crude are implemented in early November. Earlier, Total SA’s chief executive officer said prices may be heading for $100 a barrel, but warned this could hurt demand...


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WTI: $72.34

[carpadium] 28/9/2018 09:27

Ed, accept what you're saying, just curious as to how figures are reached so will ask the question and relay the answer if received.

On the subject of production all but 4bopd in H1 produced from Goudron so, with double the margins, we can look forward to valuable contribution from Bonasse and Icacos in H2. But, like most of us, it's Leo's material deal we want to see before y/e ;-)

[smoggyg] 28/9/2018 09:14

The SWP will be the make or break here imo, as there is an awfully large amount of oil there. There are various questions on its viability though. A shallow well will be relatively cheap but a deep well to 12000 ft may be too expensive to be paid for out of income. The trouble is the SWP may not be drilled either shallow or deep for a year or so. Traders will therefore look elsewhere until nearer the time. The good news for the share price here though could be the Oct 10th Q3 production numbers and follow up Q@A but any bounce may be short lived. Like I said the SWP next year could be the big event,tinkering with production and acquisitions are unlikely to make much of a dent in losses from the group of £2.45m per 6 months but the SWP drilling could.

[edgein] 28/9/2018 09:02

Carp,

That's gonna be a flexible thing anyway as when they get the production up per field the margin per bbl improves. Especially if they secure a producing asset in Colombia, the tax regime over there is much less restrictive. Completing Steeldrum and getting snowcap-1 on at around 80bopd should already impact on netbacks per bbl. Or increasing the oil recovery from 670 without increasing the waterflood beyond 1500bowpd. So I wouldn't get too hung up on netbacks now as these will change in both the short term and longer term. I don't think anyone will be buying CERP for 570bopd or current netbacks. They may be buying now ahead of the increasing production for year end or more importantly the next acquisition. Current netbacks just suggest they're cash flow positive on production now so that's likely to get better as they progress through the rest of the year.

Regards,
Ed.

[carpadium] 28/9/2018 08:50

Thanks for your reply Ed, I'll attempt to put the question to GS although I expect a fielded reply from Camarco.

[edgein] 28/9/2018 08:44

Carp,

Not sure as they cover about everything in that statement, operating costs, workovers, royalties and tax.

Regards,
Ed.

[olly94] 28/9/2018 08:17

Perhaps part of the revenue equates to production from q4

[dafrog] 27/9/2018 23:25

I visited the war graves in Sicily in August whilst visiting for commemoration of 75th anniversary of Op HUSKY. Similarly wonderfully kept despite the oppressive heat.

[carpadium] 27/9/2018 21:42

Ed, a query you may be able to answer . . .

Stated operating netback achieved after payment of operating costs, workovers and well interventions, royalties and SPT in Q1 $0.70m, Q2 $0.94m = H1 total $1.64m

H1 oil production stated as 88,380 barrels.

H1 netback stated as $13.13 per barrel whereas above figures suggest $18.55.

Do not doubt GS's figures correct but interested to know what the $5.42 per barrel deduction could be within the terminology 'netback per barrel'.

Any idea?

[offerman] 27/9/2018 20:34

Definitely CCr we will do that for sure .

[ccr1958] 27/9/2018 17:58

TG I haven’t been and yes I believe what u say is true . I am going with a ‘Band of Brothers’ some who have been before our itinerary looks arduous for a 3 day trip but really looking forward to it . I will report back thx for the heads up ! Ps not as arduous as the heros .

[the guardian] 27/9/2018 17:51

ccr, if you've never been before, you will find that it will be a very emotional day. The war graves are so well kept that I would have given the gardener my wallet if he had been around when my wife and I were there. Fortunately he wasn't.

[ccr1958] 27/9/2018 16:18

Afternoon offerman,volume is pathetic.... I was going to attempt the upcoming meeting,but now realize I am going to Normandy 10th oct. on a pilgrimage to our D Day hero’s with 17 mates ... Shame be nice to hook up at a meeting in the future.

[offerman] 27/9/2018 13:09

Bloody hell, a spot of blue, steady on CERP don't overdo it.

[arrynillson] 27/9/2018 12:57

Hopefully the Moyno pump is managing the sand - I'm confident we'll hear more at the meeting!

[ride daice] 27/9/2018 12:31

The numbers aren't going to set the world on fire but i take reassurance that this house is no longer built on sand.

[offerman] 27/9/2018 10:14

Yes agree it's the material deal that's going to make the new term transformational difference with lackThe rest helps to pay the bills and find work overs rejuvenations reactivations.