Colliers Intl Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 20/2/2008 11:19

I doubled up this am.

CR

[njp] 20/2/2008 10:46

Racing away now. Penny dropped or something leaked?

[tole] 20/2/2008 10:13

Yes ridiculously low PE if they meet expectations.

Broker Forecasts 2007 2008
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS(p) DPS(p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(p) DPS(p)
Panmure Gordon 24-01-08 BUY 11.03 14.97 5.00 10.87 14.90 5.50
Hardman & Co 23-01-08 None 11.00 15.10 5.00 11.10 15.10 5.25

Not long to wait now for results on 5 March.

L2 3v1 56-57

[njp] 20/2/2008 09:05

Agree it looks encouraging, Tole. Well oversold if 08 forecasts remain anywhere near intact.

[tole] 20/2/2008 08:59

Well if that large volume a few days back has cleared out the stock hanging over this one - could see a swift move back up.

Looks like no stock available - Online offer has now been reduced to just 1k shares whilst MM's happy to take 25k off you at mid price. Should see further moves here today.

[tole] 20/2/2008 08:41

Starting to creep back up of its floor the last couple of days.

[tole] 14/2/2008 16:49

A bit of volume today - still keeping an eye here.

[jonwig] 28/1/2008 13:33

The Hardman note includes this:

Post Christmas the team has noticed an improvement with falling property prices in the UK leading to a number of opportunistic funds looking to exploit the current market conditions.

... which is nowhere in the RNS.
Since Hardman is paid-for research, it would only be included if direct from the horse's mouth

[jonwig] 28/1/2008 12:27

Thanks for the info and link to Hardman.
I see AXA is a buyer, up from 10,962,394 to 11,072,894 (24%).

[philjeans] 28/1/2008 09:38

Mr Market tends to dis-agree though guys.

[tole] 28/1/2008 09:29

Hi N - hope you're well mate.

Hardman note available if you hadnt seen it..

[njp] 28/1/2008 09:18

Thanks, Tole. I'd agree, it does seem completely overdone. Nice to see no decline forecast for 08. Very early days, of course, but bad news is already sharply discounted. And if they do look to be getting near to those 08 figures.......it should be fun here.

[tole] 28/1/2008 09:09

Growth Company Investor – Peter Shearlock's Small Cap Stock Picks.

Colliers CRE up on trading statement

Shares in Colliers CRE, the estate agents, jumped sharply on the trading statement last week. There were two positives: one, figures for the calendar year 2007 are expected to meet expectations – despite all the evidence of a slowdown in the commercial property market in the second half of last year; two, the firm's investment team has seen some sign of a pick-up in investment transactions since the start of the new year as opportunist funds look to exploit market conditions.

Analyst Hardman & Co followed this up with a profit forecast of £11 million for 2007 and £11.1 million for the coming year. Clearly, the latter figure is way up in the air until there is clear evidence the commercial property market has found a floor and transaction volumes are back to something approaching normal. But with the shares trading at under four times expected 2007 earnings at 58p, Colliers remains a cheap counter on anything but the shortest-term view. This is supported by recurrent rumours of a buy-out bid. If you bought on my (rather early) recommendation in November at 76p, consider averaging down if the shares dip below the 50p line again.

[robsy2] 23/1/2008 15:06

To state the obvious , both absolute prices and volumes are important to this company. They broker deals for commission so if prices are down so is their turnover and especially so when volume dries up. also margins get further squeezed by cut throat competition.
Having said all that a lot of their brokearge costs are variable as well esp remuneration so that compensates as well.
All in all agreed it looks good value.

[jonwig] 23/1/2008 12:48

This has been posted on Digital Look:

23-Jan-08::Panmure Gordon::Buy::Prev Tgt 129.00p::New Tgt 103.00p::Reiteration

[jonwig] 23/1/2008 11:13

The differing views here are what makes a market.
Fair enough.
Though stuff about debt and horrible cashflow in Q1 are just restatements of what we know from the accounts, etc.

A further point ... COL have been buying up smaller outfits, and one solution to falling revenues is to cut costs, making consolidation a possibility. This was briefly rumoured last month (COL as target), and could surface again, with more credibility?

[njp] 23/1/2008 11:03

'our markets, other than UK investment, remain robust and active'

Doesn't sound like the whole of the business is suffering, scburbs.

No disputing they're in for a difficult 2008, but I'm betting too much bad news is now factored in.

Would be interesting to hear reactions to the update statement from covering brokers.

[scburbs] 23/1/2008 10:52

NJP, I don't read it that way either.

However, credit crunch/financing difficulties and falling volume of transactions go hand in hand. If volume of transactions is the key determinant of performance they must be in for a difficult 2008. They haven't said that in the statement as they are giving themselves the time to March to assess how volume is. My guess is that in March they will have to indicate that volume is down.

NJP - 23 Jan'08 - 09:14 - 513 of 518

No warning on 07 results, scburbs. And I think the point they're making is that it's activity, not price levels, that determine their profitability. There may well be some slowing down in 08, but I certainly don't read it the way you obviously do.

[njp] 23/1/2008 10:28

Well, the price has fallen over 80% since April / May last year. Obviously too much priced in then, but taken to the other extreme now - that's my take. We'll just have to see who's right.

Yield looking extremely tasty at these levels - if maintained.

[philjeans] 23/1/2008 09:56

Cheap now on last year's figures; expensive later this year on 08/09. That's my take - classic bear trap.

[alexacj] 23/1/2008 09:43

I see your argument....but wouldn't it be interesting to see what a similar US based company has experienced in activity levels when property prices begin to fall.....I agree that they make their money from transactions not the value of property....BUT one is naturally coupled to the other ....as the boom fades and prices fall......those who do not need to move do not....and those that do need to move may well find there are no buyers......with tougher lending criteria this has to affect the absolute number of transactions that take place in comparison to a market awash with cheaap credit and very lax lending criteria! I also don't think COL will hit a brick wall....but I do think there will be a "marked" slowdown which could easily transform a p/e of 4 into 12-15! Let's see what happens!!

[njp] 23/1/2008 09:37

alex

As regards price levels, COL have said that this is not the important issue. What is important is activity, which may well be lower in 08 than 07. However, in the real world, property transactions won't suddenly come to an abrupt halt. Deals will continue, albeit at a lower price.

To me, COL seems to have been treated as if it were an owner of real estate, rather than a broker.

[alexacj] 23/1/2008 09:28

I'm sure I'm being too pessimistic here.....but I just cannot see property activity staying at market boom levels......as sales dry up,values fall in both commercial and retail....that surely must have a negative impact on levels of property related transactions......what worries me is that the US property crash started similarly with everyone saying that it would only affect sub prime housing.....well that hasn't happened....and there is still no sign of price falls stopping.......couple that with Spanish sales activity falling 40%........or am I really missing something here!!

[jonwig] 23/1/2008 09:21

So, the key to future prospects should be the divi.
At half time they increased by 10% to 1.55p as an indication of confidence in the future.
A similar increase at full time should settle matters.
If it's merely maintained that will send a negative message.
But, as NJP says - what sort of forwatd rating is factored in as of now?