Colliers Intl Share Discussion Threads

[njp] 23/1/2008 09:14

No warning on 07 results, scburbs. And I think the point they're making is that it's activity, not price levels, that determine their profitability. There may well be some slowing down in 08, but I certainly don't read it the way you obviously do.

[scburbs] 23/1/2008 09:00

This para is lining up for a profit warning IMO. Next statement in March is likely to include reference to slowing volume.

"The key determinant of our performance is the volume of activity in real estate markets, not the absolute levels at which they are priced and our markets, other than UK investment, remain robust and active."

[njp] 23/1/2008 08:58

That's a fair reply, jon. I really don't blame them for waiting till the actual results are published to update on prospects. I don't see that so much as postponing bad news, more like waiting for a little more clarity. And the current price pretty much factors in Armageddon. Reality is likely to be much better than what's priced in right now.

[jonwig] 23/1/2008 08:52

A P ... the seasonal pattern of cashflows is regular and known about.

Cash to debt ratio ... "appalling" ... ?

They said at H1: "The Group is in discussions with a number of banks with a view to renegotiating its revolving credit facility which is due to expire at the end of the year."

I suspect there were a few worries in the market about this. The fact that it's gone without mention I take as a positive sign.

P J - there are, of course, worries through the sector about the length and depth of the downturn, and that will explain the low rating afforded COL (and DTZ and SVS). You have to accept that a lot of nasty stuff is priced in here!

If 2008-9 are expected to show a slowdown but not so bad as feared, the rating should improve.
The last paragraph, on current outlook seems pretty reasonable to me: we'll need to see the segmantal reporting.

[philjeans] 23/1/2008 08:39

But we all knew last year was good - what about 08 and 09 guys?

No trading update or 08 forecast at all - deliberately kept back until the finals.

Read the last few sentences again.

[antonio palocci] 23/1/2008 08:28

Perhaps the e is not repeatable. 4q was dire and 1q when they pay out bonuses will be tud.Cash to debt ratio is apalling too.might get 70p though.

[njp] 23/1/2008 08:25

You and me both, jonwig. Barclays site ridiculously slow this morning, but the slight shake helped.

[jonwig] 23/1/2008 08:22

Apologies to TDW, I was filled at 57.61p.
Thanks for the price drop.

[njp] 23/1/2008 08:16

Aaahhhh! The heady heights of x4 proving too high a rating. Or MMs playing games perhaps.

[njp] 23/1/2008 08:13

Well, whoopie doo! A rise of 9p and still a (soon to be historic) p/e of 4 and a yield of 8.5%. And no word of any dire outlook to come, either.

[jonwig] 23/1/2008 08:12

I put a FoK order (58p) but it missed the boat.
TDW not up to the game ... again.

[cockneyrebel] 23/1/2008 08:09

Incredible, PE can only be around 3.

Big bounce coming I suspect.

CR

[njp] 23/1/2008 07:24

A 10% yield. Pretty damn fine, I'd suggest! Couple that with the inevitable substantial capital gain when the market returns to its senses and you've got a pretty compelling investment case here.

[jonwig] 23/1/2008 07:22

A pretty robust trading statement here - turnover ahead of, and profits in line with market expectations suggests:

31-Dec-07 T/O £109.46m, PBT £10.83m, eps 15.24p,

The consensus is also for a div of 5.00p (up from 4.55p). If they do increase the div, that will be a signal of confidence looking forward.

Results on 5 March.

[njp] 23/1/2008 07:18

From the trading statement:

'The key determinant of our performance is the volume of activity in real estate markets, not the absolute levels at which they are priced and our markets, other than UK investment, remain robust and active. The Board is confident that the Company's broad base and financial strength position it well for the future and looks forward to updating shareholders on the outlook for 2008 at the time of the 2007 preliminary results announcement.'

Precisely! Let's see these get back to a reasonable rating - in other words, somewhat better than the current p/e of 3 and a bit.

[pepi moon] 16/1/2008 12:00

sold these and will wait for trading update not comfatable with them at all - large sellers the other day and is not bouncing with the sector everyday a new low - back to the dole que.

[pepi moon] 14/1/2008 13:58

seems this one is being over looked SVS DTZ ralling COL nothing.

[rogerbridge] 13/1/2008 14:51

Not too long to wait for the results.

[jonwig] 08/1/2008 08:34

A pretty upbeat trading statement from SVS this morning.
Both SVS and DTZ are up - but it hasn't rubbed off here.

Size and reach will help them, but that should be factored in by the lower valuation at COL.

[cerrito] 07/1/2008 10:49

Had a good look at this but will wait; saw December comment about their being purchased and does not surpriseme that they are not in talks with anyone especially as being so UK centric they do not offer the broad global appeal of SVS/DTZ
Ref my earlier post see that they have maturing debt of £4.2m in the FY beginging 1208 so perhaps some refinancing is going on
Glad that Ritblat is chairman

[cerrito] 06/1/2008 23:38

It would be good to get clarity on the following from the interims.
quote
Net cash outflows from financing activities largely represents the continuing
repayment of existing debt facilities. The Group is in discussions with a number
of banks with a view to renegotiating its revolving credit facility which is due
to expire at the end of the year.
unquote I see that in the first half of the year the overdraft went up from £3,725m to £5.5m.
Too bad the annual report does not detail the maturty structure of the long term debt.
Their financial position is ok and in normal circumstances should not be a cause for concern but the company would be well advised to clarify this having raised it as an issue.

[jonwig] 26/12/2007 19:52

From Property Week (Subscription only):

Colliers sale goes well, despite market uncertainty

21.12.07

While the UK's larger commercial auction houses achieved good results last week, medium-sized firms are producing mixed results as uncertainty continues to beset the market.

Retail specialist Colliers CRE produced a 75% success rate at its sale at Haydock racecourse in a sign that there is still appetite for property in the north-west of England.

But two London sales, for Andrews & Robertson and Countrywide Properties, produced disappointing results of 62% and 56% respectively.

The Colliers result represents a dramatic improvement from its last north-west auction in May, when it sold just 40% of the 28 lots on offer. This time, 23 of 36 lots went under the hammer in the room, and a further four sold soon afterwards.
Click here to find out more!

The sale raised £3m, at an average lot size of £110,000, compared with £1.2m at an average lot size of £107,000 in May.

But at Countrywide, the success rate fell to 57%, compared with 66% last year.

Andrews & Robertson's success rate fell to 62% at its residential sale, compared with 66% at its last sale in October and 89% at the equivalent sale last year. It raised £16m from the 65 properties sold.

[hectorp] 19/12/2007 15:23

However you look at Colliers it's seriously oversold, so it makes sense to be able to ride out a few more days or weeks of weakness, as the turnaround and rewards for holding at this price should be pretty decent. Contrarian buying now and in coming weeks IMO.

[barn owl] 19/12/2007 14:25

Looks like my purchase at 67p a few days ago was a little premature! I should no better than to catch a falling knife. Oh well, another share for the bottom draw hopefully with a dividend.
Good luck all.

[jhan66] 19/12/2007 13:20

thanks jonwig & Merry Christmas.