Cohort Share Discussion Threads

[the player] 11/4/2002 08:15

Two signals:

Short; AL.

I like this one. Massive volume yesterday resulting in an ugly candlestick. Parabolic SAR sell two days ago. Struggling at this level for four days now. RSI turned down. Most important for me....extreme MACD Hist divergence and a volatility sell signal. Finally, very near the stop so easier to enter.

Comments?

Long; CHS

Clear breakout for a long period of consolidation. But, very over bought. Worth watching. Any entry would place stop around 260p bid, IMHO.

TP

[the player] 11/4/2002 07:50

J,

You skiing or converting?

TP :-)

[big vern] 11/4/2002 02:47

How's it goin' Den ?

Greetings from Utah....

BV

[the player] 10/4/2002 15:48

Gausie,

And your point is........? ;-)

TP

[robbb] 10/4/2002 13:30

TP

Thanks for the response. Will go and have a look. I think I need to re-read the Elder sections.

Regards
Rob

[the player] 10/4/2002 13:16

Rob,

Firstly, I got a buy signal on DCG on 20/2/02 which is still running.

At the moment, there is extreme convergence between the MACD Hist and the price, not divergence.

MACD Hist did fall between 19/2 and 26/3. But, not enough to generate divergence.

Have a look at SBRY. I got a buy signal on 21/12/01 which is still running. Note how the MACD Hist continued to rise from 28/11/01 to 21/12 while the price continued to fall. By the 21/12 extreme divergence had set in and the market reacted to this by buying in volume and increasing the price sufficiently to trigger a volatility buy signal. That's what I look for. Hope it makes sense.

TP

[robbb] 10/4/2002 10:11

TP

When you have a moment would you mind having a quick look at the chart for dcg. Assuming that sharescope plot the macd hist correctly I think there is significant divergence at present. Looking at the low of 19/2 and the higher low of 26/3 and the corresponding troughs of the macd hist. The price trendline slopes up (higher low) while a line between the two macd troughs slopes down. I understand that you use a volatility indicator in addition but is the example above what you would look for in terms of macd divergence. If that is correct then a similar divergence would lead to a sell at the high on 6/3. The higher price high from 28/1 to 6/3 but the corresponding macd hist peaks are flat. I'd be interested in your reading to see if I'm along the right lines.

Regards
Rob

[the player] 10/4/2002 08:39

VOD is getting interesting. Four year chart looks like a massive H&S. Shorter term chart looks a bit more bullish in that yesterday's capitulation on massive volume may signal a short term bottom in the offing, perhaps around 110p. Some bullish divergence with RSI and MACD Histogram.

On balance, big picture is down and any strategy should really entail going short into a rally.

But, purely from an acamdemic point of view, this makes for interesting viewing.

TP

[r.dryden] 04/4/2002 00:45

adamh,

Thanks for posting those.

[adamh] 03/4/2002 11:32

TP, here's your RAT chart.... soory about the delay



Doctor Bird and R-Dryden,
Had a look at AAL, ( and I liked your chart ) but when I viewed it on my charts its definition just wasn't clear. but you've got the right idea on them.

[r.dryden] 01/4/2002 16:35

doctorbird,

I hadn't seen it till you mentioned it!
Looks interesting.
Here's a chart with the rsi(28) plotted as well.
The rsi often forms similar patterns to the price and
can be useful as confirmation of a pattern.

[doctorbird] 30/3/2002 23:45

adamh,
Has anyone mentioned Anglo American? Almost a 1,2,3,4 breaking trendline. Price has been falling for a while with a series of lower mini-peaks, nearly all having a shooting star. As Thursday's was another one this looks highly likely to continue down.

[r.dryden] 30/3/2002 21:51

davemake,

Scroll back to the page where I put the chart and do that 'view source'
stuff I told you and look for my message - you will see how I did it there.
You can see how others have done it as well.
A tip: when you open the HTML page click on 'edit' and then
select 'word wrap' from the drop down. That will make it easier to read the code.

r.d.

[r.dryden] 30/3/2002 16:57

davem,
you have mail.

r.d.

[r.dryden] 30/3/2002 15:12

oops, sorry hit the button twice.

[r.dryden] 30/3/2002 15:11

adamh,
I have been looking at your 1,2,3
and you are right, they are few and far between (I haven't found
any yet). I have found many occurrences of a 1,2 situation and what you say about going short above the second trend line
seems to be true in almost all cases.
I think this is a very useful pattern to watch for.

Another arrow for my armoury.

r.d

Edit: I was looking at end of day data, not real time..

[r.dryden] 30/3/2002 15:05

davem,
email received. Working on the reply in the next day or two.

r.d.

[r.dryden] 30/3/2002 15:00

T.P.
We do agree, and you aren't misunderstanding me either.
I wasn't really making myself clear.
I was coming from the idea of trading with the trend
which I think you will agree is the less risky.
Trading long when the troughs are rising and short when
the peaks are falling is a better policy, I think.
What makes RAT unusual is that you can trade long and short
in ANY trend while the volatility is the way it is at the moment.
Who knows what will happen in the future.
My system test did have some losing trades but much fewer
than the winners.
A judicious use of a stop losss would have reduced the losses
but I havent worked out the rules for that yet.

[davemake] 30/3/2002 11:08

R.Dryden - check your in-box

[the player] 30/3/2002 10:00

r.dryden,

I don't think we do agree! ;-) I am disputing what you are claiming about the 28 day RSI - unless I am misunderstanding you of course. I have sent the chart to Adam and when he posts it, my point should be clear.

TP

[the player] 30/3/2002 09:57

Adam,

You've got mail!

Thanks.

TP

[r.dryden] 29/3/2002 23:37

davemake, the chart I posted IS an ADVFN chart, so I don't know why you
saw a different one - maybe it was the time frame. I also use Metastock and haven't noticed a significant difference.
Re posting a chart - I can't show it here exactly as I will end up displaying another chart!
If you could post an email address or email me at [e-mail] I will
send you the code - there is also an HTML thread that might tell you how to do it.



T.P. I agree. That's one of the unusual things about RAT. You could get similar
results using a 20 day moving average which is plotted on the price chart. I like to have a couple of indicators for confirmation.
The rising/falling price peaks/troughs confirmed by the rsi just make it easier to decide whether to go long or to short.

I've system tested this in Metastock, which is notorious for being difficult
to achieve reasonable results with using realistic signals.
This is the only chart I have been able to obtain exceptional results with
using simple ma crossing signals with a one day delay. i.e. trade on the day
after the signal appears.Interestingly enough the only other charts that come close
are also fund related - one is AEE - Aberdeen emerging economies. Must be
something to do with the fact they are funds.
I only discovered this chart recently and haven't traded it yet.
I can't wait for the next signal! Anyone know how I could short this?
I can't find any spread betters who do it ( but I haven't checked them all yet) and d4f doesn't cover it.

r.d.

[the player] 29/3/2002 00:03

Adam,

You've got mail!

Thanks.


TP