Cobra Bio-manufacturing Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 25/8/2006 10:59

Certainly creating an interest in some quarter. Incidentally, that 12500 trade @ 52p @ 9.43AM was a BUY, not a sale as reported by ADVFN.

[dpmcq] 25/8/2006 10:53

Now would be a good time to annouce a big US contract win.

[games] 24/8/2006 16:14

vlts (nasdaq) once $600 per share (remember the boom) now around 35 cents and
looks to be on the brink, mkt cap a smidge of its debt. Looks like Cobra have picked up some manufacturing rights and ip, hopefully in a fire sale.



May be news worthy once finalised (if not already)

[skyship] 24/8/2006 14:50

CESAR - I agree that the move through the 200day MA could prove significant; and most especially if the rising 50day MA can overtake sometime in the next few weeks. The Golden X when properly applied, ie with both MAs rising, is a powerful barometer for the future trend.

CBF is an awkward stock to chart, but one trend that has held well is the parallel line trend shown in red. February didn't work of course, but the basline has supported well; and since the fall we have had 5 solid months of consolidation as Cavendish Manaement have been stake-building. They must be pretty darned sure of their research to take an 8% stake.

Whether I top-up again I'm not sure. My holding, now in profit again, is only 3% of my SIPP, so perhaps another 10,000......!!!!???

[robward] 20/8/2006 07:23

Morning Gents
As much as we like to share information on this BB, i think i speak for most of us when i say could we please share information on Cobra only. I'm sure there are many threads relating to Elektron.

Thank you in advance

Rob

[Abuse team] 19/8/2006 19:33

Post removed by ADVFN

[Abuse team] 19/8/2006 17:57

Post removed by ADVFN

[cesar] 19/8/2006 17:28

Hi Guys
Not sure how significant this is but i note that CBF has just broken above its 200 day moving average...first time for ages. Could this be the beginning of a new uptrend ?

[avekeena] 15/8/2006 17:33

HUGE potential:

[alibongo612] 15/8/2006 14:53

Clearly you and I have a different interpretation of what is honourable and what is not.

[philo124] 15/8/2006 11:03

What like take the Company private?
Philo

[alibongo612] 15/8/2006 08:08

Boring ?

By the only measure for investors ie share price performance,this stock has been a disaster.

The Board should be ashamed and do the honourable thing.

[boadicea] 14/8/2006 23:35

Time will tell.
Anyway, I quite like 'boring' shares as they're so often the ones that spring pleasant surprises - and they don't rush one into making unwise decisions.
Not that it isn't possible to make unwise decisions slowly, of course.

[alibongo612] 14/8/2006 22:07

I don't know how you can stand the excitement.

How can you be so wrong.

[boadicea] 14/8/2006 16:47

So it was a sell (mm bought in) at 47p and the T-trade at 47.5p is the largely off-setting buy (imho) at a narrow margin. The mm will obviously expect a better margin on the odd 32,690 he has left over.
Always good to have some large 2-way trades as it shows we have willing accumulators.

[boadicea] 14/8/2006 14:44

Tv - Yes a substantial quantity and priced as a sell. I would expect another trade to offset it as the price has moved only slightly and UP at that - perhaps implying the mm wants them for someone. Or was it a favoured buy?

[tvrtrust] 14/8/2006 12:46

eh? someone has traded some shares.....

[alibongo612] 20/7/2006 09:13

In short you have confirmed my stated view that the market is not prepared to build in any expectation of future performance/prospects into the CBF share price

This is contrary to what one would expect with a co such as CBF ie with a market leading position,enhanced and partly protected by IP, supplying a rapidly expanding,highly technological niche market that is capacity constrained.

Indeed it is contrary to the way it was previously treated by the market as evidenced by both its share price on flotation and when the share price achieved a price circa 3x the current price.

There is only one reason for that change in sentiment.

It is nothing to do with the co or its technology,but simply that the management has lost the confidence of the market who no longer believes that they are the best team to ensure that the undoubted potential is achieved.

Until they are changed the share price will languish/stay behind events.

[boadicea] 20/7/2006 00:53

Shortly, that is how shares behave.

They establish a range based on expectations over a time-frame, that frame tending to coincide with the company's reporting structure. If at any point within that time frame expectations differ significantly from the marker posts that have been (mentally) put in place, there will most often be a sharp correction independent of general market or sector sentiment.

In my estimation, the first half performance revenue-wise was rather flat and the continued higher level of expenses that appeared in 2005H2 impacted on the bottom line.
For H2, revenue looks distinctly better (this may prove to be a regular seasonal bias) and I am hoping (expecting actually) that there will not be a further large increase in expenses. In other words I would estimate (guess is perhaps a better description given my relatively uninformed position) that we have advanced in the past 3 months from a position fractionally behind that mental marker to one that is marginally ahead. This is in the nature of the game when news comes as 'lumps' of potential profitability.
On this basis I would expect the share price now to be relatively buoyant - relative to other similar stocks that is. Bio-medical stocks are not the current flavour of the month, so we have a slight disadvantage to overcome in absolute terms.

It is the final marker post for the year, first as a probable pre-close statement later to be confirmed in hard figures, that will determine any substantial progress or otherwise in the share price based on historic factors.
Just as important in a share of this type, will be the forecast for the next year and the credibility which it carries. That credibility will be enhanced by current year markers having, on balance, been achieved and dented by any shortfall, however good the forecast.
From the figures and the forecast, the pundits/brokers etc will deduce likely marker posts for fy 2006-7 and the market will determine the share price value to attribute to them.

I anticipate that current H2 will fully meet expectations and probably make up for any minor doubts which may have crept in after H1. This should lead to reasonable credibility being given to any forecast. Taking a 2007 earnings forecast of 4p, by way of example only, and allowing for the encouraging growth factor but discounting for the known difficulty of lumpy work-flow in small companies, a forward p/e of 15 (e.g. sp=60p) looks conservatively sensible imho.
When things begin to look bright the market so often over-reacts and could quite likely push on to 80p. I would find that hard to justify ahead of a good trading report, say around next AGM time.

I should emphasise that this is in no way intended as a prediction. It is just a rough statement of the markers by which I will be judging progress in the coming months.

[alibongo612] 19/7/2006 22:24

If you believe the current share price is a function of external events you are trying very hard to fool yourself.

Forget historics how do you explain the fact that it has been in a similar price range (45 - 55p) for the last year.

[boadicea] 19/7/2006 21:33

dave - I think the company has had to invest in order to get the capacity for the higher turn-over, as a result of which overheads and depreciation charges may have risen above those accounted for in that forecast.
You are right that it now looks cheap but I try to steer a realistic course between the superenthusiasm of those who are blind to any problems and the unduly jaundiced view (resulting from previous disappointment) shown by ali.

The optimism of the market is strictly tempered by external events atm, which have caused recent good news to be largely overlooked. It will need a set of encouraging numbers - overall profit for the year would be a good start - to get this moving. Once that happens, prospective earnings of ~4p for 2007 should lead to share price >> 60/80p imho. However, I would now put the 2007 turnover to base that on at something approaching £12M rather than the £9.9M you mention above.
Until the numbers are seen, or at least signalled in a pre-close trading update, whether to invest is a matter of faith.

[alibongo612] 19/7/2006 13:45

It's the price it is coz nobody is buying it because the city have lost confidence in the management.

So it's not cheap it's the correct price.

[dave122] 19/7/2006 12:18

According to forecasts on Comdirect, for y/e September 2006 turnover is £8.86m to give eps of 1.1p with turnover of £9.9m and 4.22p eps for y/e 2007.

Interestingly the latest announcement from the company states that contracted revenue for 06 is £5.4m which added to the £4.3m from first half gives a total of £9.7m.....i wonder what the eps will be ???

For a company valued at £9m with £3m in bank this is crazily cheap.

I do hold 40,000 so i may be a little bias !!

Good luck all