Cobra Bio-manufacturing Share Discussion Threads

[alibongo612] 19/1/2007 10:22

I thought precisely that when it floated unfortunately the share price remains 50% of that price.

Let's hope that several years down the line we can at least get back to where we started.

For me that would be a result.

[bookbroker] 19/1/2007 09:36

As a footnote, I would say there is never a right time to invest in a stock, however in this case and all others, instinctively I would think that there are good arguments for backing CBF.

[bookbroker] 19/1/2007 09:32

This will change much sooner than you think, there is now much more recognition for this co., better visibility of earnings, albeit still prone to fluctuations in different sectors of their business. What they have proved is their capability and competence in being able to deliver on their sections of the various agreements they have paticipated in, and with it their reputation has gone from strength to strength. In terms of the biopharma. industry, CBF. is now a recognised player, that alone should ensure a higher rating from the investment industry.

[alibongo612] 18/1/2007 23:59

Scientific team undoubtedly excellent.

Unfortunately for shareholders the Board is not rated by the City.

Until it is changed the share price will continue to languish.

[skyship] 18/1/2007 16:38

I reckon today's deal with Cequent just goes to show what an attractive morsel CBF would be for any US biotech in need of a European presence - a profitable bio-support company with an "outstanding scientific team" (Cequent's words), £3.2 Cash in the B/s, £14m tax losses & all for just under £14m @ 70p.

Thankfully topped up twice @ under 47p yesterday - must be down to PHILO's return!

Herewith a bit more on Cequent - a recent start-up biotech:

[eagle eye] 18/1/2007 11:48

Yes, and don't forget that a third of the market cap ( £3.2 million) is in cash.

[dave122] 18/1/2007 11:24

forgot to mention

Cobra market cap 9million

SR Pharma 70million

Dont think the market has caught on yet.

[dave122] 18/1/2007 11:19

Todays News

Cobra Bio-Manufacturing PLC
18 January 2007


For Immediate Release 18 January 2007



Cobra Biomanufacturing Plc

Cobra signs agreement with Cequent to evaluate Cobra's ORT Technology for RNAi
Delivery

Keele, UK, 18 January 2007 - UK based Cobra Biomanufacturing Plc (AIM: CBF) has
signed an agreement with Cambridge, MA based Cequent Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to
develop a treatment for an inherited form of bowel tumour (Familial Adenomatous
Polyposis (FAP)). The treatment will incorporate Cobra's proprietary antibiotic
free maintenance technology (ORT) in conjunction with Cequent's proprietary
TransKingdom RNA interference (tkRNAi) technology.

Commenting on the contract, David Thatcher, CEO at Cobra, said: 'We are
delighted to work with Cequent on this exciting project. Interference RNA (RNAi)
has great potential for medicine, and Cequent's tkRNAi technology clearly
represents an important breakthrough for the difficult, but exciting field of
RNAi delivery. We believe the combination of Cobra's ORT technology with
Cequent's in vivo delivery platform will have significant clinical benefit.'

Peter Parker, President and CEO at Cequent, said: 'Cobra has an excellent track
record of developing innovative solutions for molecular biology and biologic
therapy, and we look forward to collaborating with Cobra's outstanding
scientific team to evaluate their ORT technology for use in our therapeutic
tkRNAi bacteria.'



I have to say i'm no expert but this RNAi technology is pretty hot at the moment. This is the main thrust of SR Pharma which have rocketted on their RNAi tie up with Pfizer.


SR Pharma plc to Receive Milestone Payments of up to US$95 Million (~£50
Million) from Pfizer as a Result of a Sublicensing Deal

London, UK, 26 September 2006 ..... SR Pharma plc (London LSE: SPA) announces
that its operating subsidiary Atugen AG will receive milestone payments of up
to US$95 million as well as royalties as a result of a sublicensing deal
announced today between its collaborator Quark Biotech Inc., Atugen AG and
Pfizer Inc. SR Pharma will receive an initial payment of $2 million and a first
milestone payment of $1.5 million on the start of the Phase I trial. All
agreements are subject to certain conditions which include the clearance by the
U.S. Federal Trade Commission. The payments relate to a RNAi therapeutic
product (RTP-801i) developed under an agreement between Quark and Atugen for
the treatment of Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) and other diseases. The
financial terms of the sublicensing transaction between Quark Biotech and
Pfizer have not been disclosed.

Quark Biotech and Atugen have collaborated on this AtuRNAi therapeutic siRNA
product for AMD since 2004 and are currently collaborating on additional
therapeutic AtuRNAi siRNA products in other indications.

Iain Ross, Chairman of SR Pharma, said: "This deal, which will result in
milestone payments directly to Atugen of up to US$95 million and additional
potential upside of royalties, is a significant validation of Atugen's
proprietary siRNA technology (AtuRNAi)."

Thomas Christély, Chief Executive Officer of Atugen stated: "This is a
break-through for SR Pharma's siRNA therapeutics programs as this represents
our first siRNA molecule out-licensed to a large pharma company."


Interesting stuff.

[fullupfool] 18/1/2007 08:17

well, david said he was delighted again

[boadicea] 17/1/2007 15:44

PHILO - Anything that low ought to attract some competition imho.

Anyway, nothing like being up on a down day to make it stand out from the crowd.

Btw, the two recent published trades at 46.65p will both be delayed 'buys'.

[philo124] 17/1/2007 10:15

MBO & 55/60P most likely in my opinion.
Philo

[skyship] 17/1/2007 09:29

Surely that volume peak wasn't down to the small piece in the IC. They said the shares are a Good Value BUY after the recent figures and the share price doesn't reflect the improving position. On a 2007 prospective PE of just 11 I have to concur, but the undervaluation may well continue in view of the fact that we are a "Below-the-Radar" AIM-listed company.

I still believe that a Bid/MBO will be our final fate; and valuation grounds now suggest that a price in the 65p-70p range will have to be on offer.

Very little downside here; but a sizeable amount of upside!

[slj] 15/1/2007 16:40

As I said, delayed buys showing now..... Look at the time of the trades in the 'sell' column and you can see that most are buys.

[boadicea] 15/1/2007 16:28

Interesting price action today - somewhat contrary to the apparent flow of trades. Something afoot?

[don muang] 15/1/2007 16:09

it 'deserves' a higher share price than it's presently got .... let's see if sentiment (buys) will lift it to a more reasonable price.

[slj] 15/1/2007 15:36

Buys over 5k are reported with a 2hr delay, so it looks like buys over this amount bought after 14:30hrs will be reported after hours. 3.5 x average daily volume traded so far, with price gone up. Looking good.

Edit
10k delayed buy just gone through as I type at 45.875p

[alibongo612] 13/1/2007 13:54

Here I am again pointing out the blindingly obvious to you guys.

The market has grave reservations re the quality of the management - it simply does not trust it not to repeat the blip.

As a result will not rerate the share price until it is changed.

You may find that unpalatable but even the stalwarts amongst you are running out of alternative theories.

[boadicea] 12/1/2007 22:42

Rohkap - I do quite agree and, having added in justified expectation before the results, would now be adding more if funds permitted.
The only reservation I have - and maybe this is what the market fears - is that the need for expansion to meet increasing demand could possibly lead to a placing or similar funding requirement. However, within the long term view this is a temporary effect, one of the penalties of success. Work flow can sometimes be lumpy and running with high borrowing and low equity (i.e. highly geared) then becomes uncomfortably risky.

[rohkap] 12/1/2007 22:28

Amazing-these were decent results and the share price hasnt budged. Outlook remains good and the balance sheet is solid. Equity Development has slapped a 75p price target on the shares

[don muang] 10/1/2007 10:48

Cobra got a brief paragraph in the Market Report section of the Independent this morning. They'd also had a brief mention a couple of days ago. So as Independent finance section now seem to be aware of them let's see if they subsequently come up with a longer report on them in their Invstment Column.

[philo124] 09/1/2007 11:37

Back in for the 4th time @ 47p
Philo

[daz] 09/1/2007 11:33

Results look good but going forward, order book growth is decreasing and therefore the rate of growth will also slow.
In Jan 2006, the order book was £5m, compared to £2.7m in Jan 2005, an increase of 2.3m or 85%. This year the increase is only 1m or 20%.

The decision by Auxillum to produce phase 3 product themselves, if this turns out to be a trend could also be a concern. If the economics mean that it's better to produce phase 3 and approved products in-house, then CBF may not get a chance to get into volume production for approved products, which was the carrot for the future for me.

Against that, there is potential in ORT-VAC but from the lack of guidance, this is some way off commercialisation.

[dave122] 09/1/2007 09:57

Hi Boadicea
Just a few thoughts to add to your post. Forecasts for y/e 06 were 10.1m t/o with .24m profit to give 1.1p eps. They actually turned in .265m profit which explains the 1.4p eps. This year the forecasts i have are 11.49m with .82m profit to give 4.11p eps. Then for the following year (2008) 12.57m to give 1.13 m profit to give 5.89eps.

I am encouraged by the 20% increase in the order book...we only need a 14% increase in turnover to hit forecasts. With the strong cash position and investment in the business this is a solid undervalued business. I still think that a major new long-term contract win may be required to propel the shares higher. However, the shares with a growth rate of 40% from 07-08 are cheap on a forward of 12 for this year and 8 for next.

Regards

Rob Ward

(Im on a friends computer today !!!)

[boadicea] 09/1/2007 08:02

This looks to be exactly in line with the indications of the October trading statement from which I deduced an H2 profit in the region of 550K.
I like their conservative approach to revenue recognition.
The only minus point I can see is the fall in value of US$ which is beyond their control and the handling of the associated risk seems intelligent.
Altogether very encouraging and should put it back above 50p imho.

I note that the result is marginally ahead of the broker forecast (possibly due to the tax credit) and that the current year forecast is for 0.88M (eps 4.11p). Given the improving trend this would make the shares look good value up to 60p imho as doubts over the sustainability of the trend evaporate.
The tax position for several years ahead looks particularly benign.

[don muang] 09/1/2007 07:49

like it .... a biopharm compny that's making a profit (Profit before tax for the financial year #0.2m) and has dosh (Cash at bank #3.2m). share price must be considered cheap given the established fundamentals and futureprospects.