Cmc Markets Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 17/11/2021 11:57

Post 1158Back to 200 ?

[sbb1x] 17/11/2021 11:54

200 is fair value

[123trev] 17/11/2021 11:24

The chart looks like £2 on the way a more realistic figure for now given the circumstances.

[coxsmn] 17/11/2021 11:12

6.6% premium from splitting the business before time and cost involved."According to the Sky News article, the valued of the break-up would be £800m, so above the market value of £750m as of Friday's market close."

[aleman] 17/11/2021 10:39

H1 was always going to be tough. People wanted to go out and play again after lockdown and markets were calm so they were not at their desks.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 17/11/2021 10:28

1269 - Bit simplistic that? Maybe we are - but maybe we're not.

But you can't deny that their cost base is higher and will stay so - they have said so themselves.

Regarding the new revenue streams - they have bought such in Australia. Which they may or may not manage well - only time will tell. We will see - but that does not mean their plan to something similar in the UK will succeed. The investment communities are different, the competition is different - you can't just assume success.

Put it this way - now that I can see the numbers and the impact on the bottom line better, I am less convinced that this is a winner, even at the current reduced prices. It should not ever be disastrous, it is scaleable, and could be very good - but it could just as easily be fairly priced.

In summary, meh (imho)...

[nigelpm] 17/11/2021 10:15

Most of the posters here are missing the new revenue streams and progress being made. This half year is an aberration.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 17/11/2021 09:47

Yes, but the point being that a lot of the next generation have been fast-tracked, lost, and won't be back. So a shortage of new cannon fodder for a couple of years.

[wasteof] 17/11/2021 09:04

I P - it's a parade; as old punters fall by the way the next 'generation' arrive.

W

[imastu pidgitaswell] 17/11/2021 08:29

Except it has added on a lot more costs, and its cost base will remain a lot higher than 2019. And an awful lot of people who would have been new customers over the next few years have already come and gone, chewed up and spat out already.

[primarch1] 17/11/2021 08:05

Like most businesses 2020 was an anomaly boosted buy government printing money,compared to 2019 numbers look good.with a 50% drop already this is about we're it will sit for now,however in this overreacting market probably be hammered in the short term

[rcturner2] 17/11/2021 08:02

These businesses get valued on single digit PE ratios because of the risks involved. 20p full year eps on a PE of 8 is 160p share price.

IG which is a much better business is currently on a PE ratio of 10.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 17/11/2021 07:55

I would think the market will look at EPS of 9.6p, similar to H1 2019, and work off that. Full year - wot - 20-25p? Factor in the Aussie non-leveraged business to follow.

I dunno - 200 is too low, I think, 300 is probably high enough for now.

Just a quick stab, nothing more than that.

[rcturner2] 17/11/2021 07:46

On the back of those results these should be below 200p.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 17/11/2021 07:35

Now THAT is what you call a leveraged business model...

Best bet is to think of it as the 2019 model - 2020 was simply an aberration.

The non-leveraged business - meh...

[rcturner2] 17/11/2021 07:07

Back to reality with those appalling results.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/11/2021 21:06

Mmmmm. Can't help wondering how how Sky got to hear of it.

They (Sky) are often used by some of the practitioners of sharp practice (or more usually their PR people) to get stuff in the media, which then 'requires' the company to issue an RNS to 'clarify' the situation.

Job done, imho.

It doesn't really matter, but just another example of some murky activities within the market.

[roguetraderuk] 15/11/2021 18:57

the reason for the release ahead of time was clearly to try to put an end to the decay in the share price decay because it just couldnt gain any traction. what is probably a once in a generational boost to trading thanks to covid, means you might see a slow but sure drop off in the cfd trading volumes over the next few years. given the stockbroking and business side is going the other way, it makes sense to explore a spin off. dont think they will take off here, as its going to be a long process, but it looks like it will put a floor under the price for now.

[undervaluedassets] 15/11/2021 09:04

What is the value of the unleveraged part of this business? What are its earnings/potential earnings? Give them a multiple of 25. What proportion of the CMC whole is this? Add the unleveraged and the leveraged parts together and you have a valuation. It will give you a capitalisation way north of what we have now.

Put simply the 2 businesses are worth more than the current market cap. The spread betting business has masked the value of of the non-leveraged business.

To me, a 50%+ share price change by the end of the month looks plausible.

[primarch1] 15/11/2021 08:44

They have to release the rns due to press speculation over the weekend

[solo4yous] 15/11/2021 08:42

Big bounce now coming in CMCX?

You just never know with the stock!

Lovely recovery. next up is a tiddler?!
Unloved and huge amounts of newsflow coming up!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/11/2021 08:26

I can see the point - but I can't really see the point of an RNS about it before they have even reviewed its feasibility, never mind decided whether or not to do it. Sounds a little desperate tbh - although a decent share price reaction.

Still not back in - will probably just watch it go all the way back up...🙄