Informative posts sphere. More than 80% in cash now, could be wrong move, who knows.Have a long list of buys, getting cheaper by the day! |
Really helpful, thank you |
 Closed at the low of the day at 232p.
This does happen Izztre.
When we get this form of panic in the market, selling begets selling...stops get taken out and people just run for the hills. It doesn't matter sometimes which company it is. This isn't an elevated form of panic (like 08 etc), but it is enough to see the selling gain even more momentum.
Seen CMCX plunge big in the past when it doesn't make sense, that is why I just took a little loss. I'm not getting in the way of this market and the freight train it is - just use the stop losses and get out when it goes wrong.
But, if trading is in line here (or ahead as some believe), then this will turn. The market will look at the cheap fundamentals and take into account what is going on out there. This is all playing into the hands of CMCX so it looks a buy into weakness as well - just hard to time with that trend and all out selling right now.
As a side note, the bigger problem with the yield moves and the worsening economic data prints is how it feeds through to confidence. We're in a mess that is getting worse, and unless someone takes a hold of the mess, companies aren't going to be saying positive things in this environment.
It could end up as profit warning central out there.
Hope I am wrong, but the market is doing the talking out there right now, and it is plain to see.
Covered my risk, locked the gains along the way and taken little losses where needed. Holding very little now.
Investors will have to be very selective and traders perhaps more nimble.
Maybe it gets bad enough that rate cuts save the day?
What a way to end the week!
Spew-a-rama!
Onwards!
All imo
DYOR |
I posted not because I consider Cmcx to wrongly priced but purely on basis of what can be readily seen. I think the entire market is looking irrational atm, with no sign of the swing back to more realistic valuations vis a vis our international comparators. UK Plc is clearly being put back in the Dunce's corner. Perhaps we just have to own the hat and what, if any advantages it brings with regards to deep value. I don't think Cmcx is one of those atm, though it clearly was early last year. On the other hand, if you're an income investor you'd need to back to 2000 or 2009 to find such opportunities, such as they yet prove themselves to be, or not! As ever, Caveat Emptor. |
Volatility should help CMCX. Can't understand this market |
You might be right Brucie5.
The 250 is breaking down and it looks like the trackers are selling here as well to cause all round weakness.
At the same time you would think this volatility would cause some fundamental buying.
Maybe the market is waiting on the update.
I can see a certain share where two buyers are trying to corner the market to cause a continued technical spike higher, but overall it is uncomfortable out there.
Very shaky stuff now with the 250 moving the way it is and the small cap is breaking down as well. The people calling rolling tops were ahead of the game.
The gloom continues.
Hard to not get deeply dragged into it.
All imo
DYOR
15:47 That has gone through my stop - loss taken. I will look to re-enter. |
Aware that this has appeared on several New Year buy lists by respected commentators, but I have to say that from a purely chart perspective, this looks like a massive Head and Shoulders. 250 also looks like point of support which is now broken; next is 2.40. Below that I see a shoulder to 1.70, which was the top of the initial recovery bowl. |
Okay, he is back at the desk hitting the sell orders again. Vindaloo night outs to be avoided in future.
So that was just an illiquid pop without everyone involved - correcting now.
They've gone to China whilst there is talk of some form of financial crisis, if those yields don't calm down.
What happens if they go screaming through 5%? They keep doing these scary pops higher.
Just looking at the current moves out there...
TW. has gone from 120p to 107p to 113p now. There are all kinds of shorts, longs, leverage, normal share traders pinging about there. Volume was heavy yesterday. Maybe some shorts closing and some value bottom pickers coming in, but it isn't just there....
Alot of the rate sensitive shares were having heavy exchanges yesterday:
HICL, MSLH....GEN has had heavy exchanges recently too
Lower down, COST has plunged 14%
So there are heavy price and volume based exchanges. It is fragile with warning signs that the yields have to settle.
But hey they're in China so clearly anyone with concerns here....don't worry about it.
Nothing to see! Ha
All imo
DYOR |
Up nearly 6% and breaking out
Erm...
What are you doing...
You're not allowed to break out like that..
Even if you are a hedge..
Hello!
Did the guy who puts all the sell orders into the UK market go the loo?
It's abit late to say I'm in at 242p. I didn't think it was going to pop like that so quick.
Trading update is due on 23rd January
Unless some news has leaked? Or is it just an illiquid algo breakout pop |
Bought back in here. Starting to look cheap again - EPS is volatile but if you simply annualise H1 12.8p then you get to around 25p, which puts this on a PE of under 10. Strip out the surplus cash/liquid assets gives you a cash adjusted PE of around 6.5. Not bad for a company which seems to have a number of growth initiatives and which stands to benefit from potentially volatile markets in 2025. Also, unless trading has completely collapsed in recent months then I would exepct them to easily beat the very prudent forecasts. |
Added a few though, still way too cheap. |
Yep 250p gone |
Nothings ever nailed on. |
250p (chart support) looks nailed-on short term. |
Starting to get back into buy territory, after perhaps getting a bit ahead of itself earlier in the year. I still think the H1 results were a little underwhelming (if you look past the headlines and drill into the detail) so will just monitor for now. Remember that interest income of £23m in H1 made up almost half of their PBT - with global rates coming down I suspect this particular income stream may have peaked. |
How can this be back to 260p. Crazy times. |
I'm looking to open a position here but.....
The recent interim report produced lower results compared to the trading update from October. H1 income should have been £180M but was only £177M, H1 profit was supposed to be £51M but came in at £49.5M but on the positive side, Charges were supposed to be £113M but came in at £111M. Over such a short period between the 9th October update and the interims on the 21st November, the figures should have really been the same especially as the period in question was the half year to the 30th September.
Full year income is estimated at £333M which means the 2nd half will be £156M compared to the 1st half of £177M whilst charges will be £225M for the year equating to £114M for the 2nd half. Therefore, I see the 2nd half being lower in profits with lower income and higher charges than the 1st half.
I can't quite get my head around the Strike X write-off despite the continued support and saying it will do well! Confusing. Any comments welcome |
Yes well up against a weak H1 24 but down quite a lot versus H2 24 (which admittedly was exceptional so perhaps not expected to be repeated). I suspect market was hoping for a beat rather than in line, and that's probably another factor. |
The whole year says in.line..Come on...what have I missed..CMC MARKETS PLC("CMC" the "Group" or the "Company") Q1 2025 Trading Update Q1 performance in line with expectations.On track to achieve net operating income of between £320-360 million. |
The whole year report was quite striking.. before tax margin % is calculated as profit before tax as a percentage of net operating income. Financial Highlights· Net operating income of £177.4 million, up 45% year-on-year (H1 2024: £122.6 million), reflecting continued growth across the institutional segment and an increase in client trading activity.· H1 2025 trading net revenue was £131.3 million, up 50% year-on-year (H1 2024: £87.4 million) with strong performance across both our institutional and retail segments.· Investing net revenue was £19.9 million, up 19% year-on-year (H1 2024: £16.8 million), driven by a strong |
I don't think the sell off was entirely due to the write down - in my view more to do with what looks like a loss of momentum (trading revenue in H1 was well below H2 last year). |
I bought some of these as the drop didn't make sense at all. Write downs is normal in a business. Once we get through the 3 pounds mark then 320 or so has to be within very east reach and quite quickly.For those buying the dip, a great opportunity. |
 Shore: CMC needs to communicate its strategy
CMC Markets (CMCX) has established impressive business relationships, but Shore Capital says the market won’t get behind the share-dealing and spread-betting company until it communicates a monetisation strategy.
Analyst Vivek Raja retained his ‘hold’ recommendation but cut his ‘fair value’ target price to 280p after half-year figures on Friday. The shares rose 3.4% to 273p, recovering some of their decline on results today. This year the shares have soared 158%.
‘CMC has proved its technological competence amply, having secured impressive business-to-business relationships over the years with the likes of ANZ Bank, and more recently Revolut and ASB Bank,’ he said.
However, he said the issue has been about how the company ‘communicates monetising these relationships in a way public markets can sustainably get behind’.
This has created significant share price volatility and ‘sharp earnings upgrade and downgrade cycles in the past two years’.
‘Furthermore, in our view, limited disclosure pertaining to the core trading division reduces forecast confidence. Until these situations improve, we are unlikely to be able to recommend CMC’s shares,’ said Raja. |
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