Cluff Gold Share Discussion Threads

[pennylane2] 20/8/2012 08:59

Rangold has eyes for undervalued producers..Cluff cerainly is ..won't be surprised if some sort of bidding becomes apparent before pog start to rally to $2000 mark.

[pennylane2] 20/8/2012 08:25

Expect this to move up in the tsx exhange.

[pennylane2] 17/8/2012 17:57

All these other factors will confirm your suspicion...printing of money by world central banks to promote economic growth hence, fear of inflation.China lowering interest rate to promote internal growth.These favour demand for the yellow metal as hedge.Junior gold miners are so undervalued(CLF as one) the larger players are looking to takeover/buy them.I myself sees clf as a prime target at this very low share price The share price upward trend should continue if investors have got the sense to see the real value of CLuff's assets.

[simonbroughton] 17/8/2012 16:40

It may also be that smart money is starting to be recycled back into a weak sector in general. All four of my gold stocks have good gains today.

[inside building] 17/8/2012 16:24

Well 3-4 weeks to go until Denver.



News on financing potentially expected around then.

IB

[pineapple1] 17/8/2012 11:28

IB....good post.Sounds extremely compelling even to a timid bull like me. Perhaps the ABG china gold corp story will be the turning point.Nothing like some hungry predators to send bears scurrying to close at a risk of a 50% rise haircut if they are a bit late to the party....imho

[inside building] 17/8/2012 11:18

PINEAPPLE1

We dropped from 65p to 50p in the same time period.
We dropped from 1 pound to 50p in 5 months along with the rest of the gold sector we saw a 50% drop in our investment.

Yes M&A activity is hotting up because the larger miners have lots of cash and they can probably get an asset now at a bid for the price that it was at in March. All this when gold is looking as though it may also move upwards.

At 1 pound Cluff would be worth 175m fully diluted. They potentially have 5m ozs in the ground in 3 countries which could be expanded with more drilling. 1 project is operational and could be expanded and consolidated in BF with neighboring miners who are also short of cash. The other two projects could be producing within 18 months (construction cost of both = $250m) on a joint 250koz per annum production with a cost of $500per oz. So this would bring in $1,000oz profit which would be $250m per annum for 10 years.

So to buy out Cluff at 1.50 this would be $400m plus $250m in construction costs = $650m which = 2.5 year pay back on investment and over $1.5bn profit in the next 7-8 years.

I can see why the big boys are looking at the likes of Cluff and i can also see why Cluff would be better borrowing and doing it themselves. However, this will be driven by the large institutional shareholders who have to date put their money in and generally been very patient.

IB

[amargosa] 17/8/2012 11:15

Or a short squeeze.

[sporazene2] 17/8/2012 11:04

certainly looks possible

[pineapple1] 17/8/2012 10:57

i wonder if a predator is sniffing around.The last 2 day rises seem a little to much

[inside building] 17/8/2012 10:31

Quite funny really if you think about it.
Cluff do not feel they can raise equity through existing or new shareholders because of the low market cap. So they announce that they will not be doing this and are confident that they can raise via borrowing. Then after this news the value of the company starts to rise. If it continues to rise Cluff could revert to an equity raising!!!
I am not suggesting that this will be the position just that a higher value company opens up even more options. Anyway no real value for John McGloin in doing this as an equity raising would likely lower the share price and it would make it harder for him personally to gain on his 1.6m share options in the future. So on the basis of personal greed by the existing directors i would suggest that a higher share price is more in their interest than ours as there are circa 7m share options that all could do with an share price at 1.50 or more. Chuck in the fact that 12m + shares are owned by directors then there is only one option for them to all gain. As the new team was only put in place in the last two years you could again argue that it was in their personal interest for the share price to fall so that share options would be more attractive when awarded.

Greed is a funny thing and looking at the salary, bonuses and option packages the top 3-4 have had in the last two years this gives me great confidence that the share price will move up.

IB

[pennylane2] 17/8/2012 10:20

Baomhaun financing once resolved will be the major catalyst for share price moving upwards to its £1.36 target.Not long now IMHO.

[amargosa] 17/8/2012 10:07

There is a slight whiff of something more significant going on than just being oversold; probably nothing though.

[pennylane2] 17/8/2012 08:56

There could be a major announcement first week of September!! ;-)

[inside building] 16/8/2012 12:19

In order to get back to the £1 mark it is obvious that certain things need to happen. In my opinion these are:

Gold price staying above $1500
Burkina Faso to remain politically stable
Sierra Leone elections to be relatively free of any coup etc
Baomahun resource update
Baomhaun feasibility study to include reduced mine stripping ratios and low cost etc
Baomahun funding being non dilutive to existing shareholders and not hedged
Kalsaka production targets in 2012 to be met
Sega PEA and then to be integrated in to Kalsaka
Yaoure resource update to be as significant as they believe (500k ozs this year) with more to come in 2013

If all this comes in within the next 3-4 months then there is every probability that Cluff will be back on track and that the market will rerate Cluff.
By the end of the year Baomhaun financing will determine the destiny of whether Cluff can resist any potential suitors or not. Of course this now becomes a matter of timing for anyone watching Cluff. A bid has got to be of interest to the institutional shareholders if they will realise value on their holdings. Most institutional holders have shares at a range of 80p-£1.16 so few will be willing to sell for less than £1.40 (IMO).

Anyway Cluff is a roller coaster so enjoy the ride.

IB

[pennylane2] 16/8/2012 11:34

Should rise steadily towards the price target of£1-£1.36.

[pineapple1] 16/8/2012 11:28

Has the interest by China gold corp in ABG been the match in the bale of hay the sector needed.Lets hope its more than a one day wonder.

[npp62] 16/8/2012 11:07

Looking good here..... been on my watch-list for some time. Thinks its time to grab a few. On the article posted above by basher bhoy there is a mention of Arian Silver (AGQ)....definitely worth a look!

[fitton] 16/8/2012 08:48

Almost the perfect storm developing.Increased M&A,extremley undervalued asset,financing news due before 9th Sept,company performance good,increasing assets,all brokers continue to be very positive and newspaper coverage.

[pennylane2] 16/8/2012 08:38

Takeover or not ..the future is bright for Cluff.The numbers is on the up.Profit margin increasing ,cost down and asset value appreciating.

[fitton] 16/8/2012 08:18

The M&A activity is now increasing and Cluff must be high on the list of targets.

[pennylane2] 16/8/2012 08:09

Breakout..hopefully the Bahmoun finance being sorted ;-))