Cls Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 01/11/2023 11:19

* thanks folks for flagging up the GPE Sell rec,
added a few GPE on the drop.

[spectoacc] 01/11/2023 08:08

GPE got a d/g to Sell from Citi this morning, not seen the note.

[essentialinvestor] 31/10/2023 12:45

GPE is what I've bought two recent very small amounts of.

I'm convinced there is a healthy future for London Grade A commercial office, BUT..
none of us know the future, probability is the best we have. I could well be wrong.

[bedford1976] 31/10/2023 12:39

If you thing CLS is bad take a look at Regional REIT now on a yield of 20%.
If I dip my toe in property next year I'm going to stick with GPE based on their low borrowings and central London focus.

[extrader] 26/10/2023 21:56

To be fair, I don't think anyone could have anticipated the work-from-home development that presumably is the root cause of the present situation?

AIUI, each of the properties is held in a separate SPC, with asset and associated liabilities ring-fenced. Not sure whether there'd be a 'change of control' clause in those circs.

I held these maybe 15 years ago and - if some capital becomes available - would be tempted again as a dabble, since it looks as though the pendulum has swung too far.

'Reversion to the (new) mean' should still be worth-while, there's a pretty wide margin of error, AFAICS.

NAI, DYOR etc etc

[giltedge1] 26/10/2023 21:40

This used to be a well run company, presume UK Asset vacancies are the main worry.
Regarding takeover, may be a problem with existing loans as borrower usually has a change of control clause, so these 2 - 3% loans may be lost to the family potential buyout. Anyone have any experience in these loans?. Also anyone making a buy on this share?.

[extrader] 26/10/2023 15:17

Now 88.7p...

PTBV 0.33 per stocko, f'cast to pay 7.99p for 2023 (1.24x covered), analyst Target Price 165.25*p....

Surely the Morstedts must be considering a buyout ?

* this would-coincidentally-be about their highest purchase point in the last 12 months.

Ho hum.

[bedford1976] 26/10/2023 10:20

A Mordsted family buy-out looks the final play her, nobody's that excited about their portfolio anymore. Cannot see this being listed much longer

[nickrl] 24/10/2023 22:08

@m_kerr thought that at 140 now im not sure there is a bottom here although surely the family will just take it all over before long as it costing them less by the day!

[m_kerr] 24/10/2023 21:04

CLS seems to be a very thinly traded stock. if one shareholder owns 55%, the rest is only £165m. 'yield' on it's own means nothing, it has to be sustainable. may be in a minority here but i think this is a bargain at these levels, despite the LTV.

[skyship] 20/10/2023 11:03

Strewth - CLI now a high yield stock! 8.44% at 94.2p...

[essentialinvestor] 20/10/2023 10:25

CLI owns the commercial office Tower in New Malden (or at least they did).

Tolworth Tower is vacant awaiting redevelopment planning permission for apartment
blocks - CNM Estates the owner.

[spectoacc] 19/10/2023 16:34

"Nick"ing my lines now ;)

[nickrl] 19/10/2023 13:56

As the Quo said down down deeper and down....

[skyship] 17/10/2023 13:08

Ex - re yr Q elsewhere - really no idea. Seem dramatically oversold and most likely are. However no getting away from the fact that their type of office blocks extremely unpopular. Look at the two twins in south London - Ewell/Epsom or some-such. Couldn't give them away nowadays.

Family should have kicked out the BoD long ago. Total incompetence not to have made a few sales and reduced LTV long ago.

Still on my Monitor; but prefer to buy REITs in other sectors, esp. EBOX - though their fall too has been precipitous and now on a yield of 9.2%!

[extrader] 16/10/2023 18:59

.."Not in here but reckon they have more hope than RGL and always possibility family will just take it private..."

Could be. Does the rule about having to pay the highest price paid in the last 12 months apply to family members who've bought?

That might put a damper - or at least a floor - to their plans, if so...

.."on 10 October 2022 .. Anna Seeley, Deputy Chair and Non-Executive Director of the Company, purchased 34,000 ordinary shares of 2.5 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 145.0 pence per Ordinary Share on 5 October 2022."

And she or another family member may have bought in the subsequent rise to 160p-ish.

ATB

[nickrl] 16/10/2023 17:55

i like the opening statement above

"CLI still looking good value, NAV up 10% in past 6 months to 603p"

now trading at 65% below NAV!! yielding 7.8% close to a pound now albeit on thin trading.

There finance costs are going up and that will tip them over into an uncovered divi is my forecast maybe by FY24 results on an annual run rate. Positively though they have been able to get immediate loan portfolios refinanced and about half of their 2024 refis are secured albeit at close to 6% in UK 3.5% in Euros so remainder likely to be a little higher given peak rates were post June 23. There peak refi is 2025 and they pushing for sales to reduce the amount currently but looks slow progress. Its annoying they never publish a complete loan schedule as all are in the individual SPVs.

Not in here but reckon they have more hope than RGL and always possibility family will just take it private.

[shieldbug] 11/10/2023 11:30

Would be good to hear confirmation that sale of Westminster Tower has now completed.

[nickrl] 06/10/2023 22:05

@itstheoxman it is bizarre you have to wonder who the seller is here

[its the oxman] 06/10/2023 17:01

How can this be 110p. Bonkers but there you go.

[nickrl] 02/10/2023 18:37

All time low today although trading was thin. Divi here is well covered at the cash level and they can easily absorb the increased loan costs where refis are required in the SPVs currently without threatening divi cover. Family hoovered up several percent this year already so perhaps they will just slowly take the company over by default!

[skyship] 01/10/2023 09:10

As I said back in June in 695 above:

"I suppose the problem is what are the true valuations of large office tower blocks. Certainly not many buyers around for those!

Still, you would have thought a 60% NAV discount would allow for most circumstances."

Since then CLI have slumped another 10%. Like RGL, a total credibility problem being an Office specialist.

[m_kerr] 28/9/2023 22:43

i don't see any risk of that shield. risk is very well managed at CLS, with dozens of SPVs and non recourse debt.

they seem to have a long term approach here, stemming from the support of the large shareholder no doubt.

[shieldbug] 25/9/2023 10:43

I do hope that the main shareholder removes risk of the board panicking. Board's panicking when the share price is like this is a major consideration. Shareholder's are renowned for panicking which creates opportunity for other shareholders - boards panicking can be hell for long shareholders.

[m_kerr] 18/9/2023 19:31

Specto - good call, i said the same and RGL is down approx 30% since your post.

there's some positives with CLS that i like. the main shareholder is clearly thinking the share price undervalues the assets. in the midst of all this, they secured a very significant 30 year index linked german government lease. €38m purchase price plus €20m capex, but will hopefully lead to a significant uplift.

£180m assets are held for sale in the balance sheet. roughly £50m UK, £10m france, £120m germany. already £39m under offer or under contract on top of the £49m achieved above book in the first half.