Clinton Cards Share Discussion Threads

[mikeatwork22] 18/4/2006 12:52

verynervy - what price do you think will be good to buy in at ?

If the SELL recomendation is down to 50p then that will have to be the target ?

[simon gordon] 18/4/2006 11:34

One long term factor to take into consideration is that the cost of buying and sending a Clinton card is heading towards a fiver, for no cost you can send a musical e-card on the web. I have started to use these as thank you cards and no doubt I will migrate to birthdays, as they are eco-friendly.

I think the cards at Asda are perfectly fine and good value for money.

Clintons do have a better range but it is only a piece of paper!

[verynervy] 18/4/2006 09:43

Also the sheep/lemmings are following the numis downgrade which was in Suinday papers

could be a good time to buy approaching!!

[randolph and mortime] 18/4/2006 09:17

Telegraph piece today, admitting that the yield is illusory.

[mistertibbs] 17/4/2006 19:34

Had a look to see what the brokers recommend.
1 buy
1 neutral
4 sell
I looked in particular at Numis. Interesting I thought.They're last 5 recommendations on clinton are as follows:
13-04-2006 Sell @64 pence
24-11-2005 Buy @ 67 pence
20-04-2005 Hold @ 90.5 pence
21-12-2004 Sell @ 98 pence
07-01-2004 Buy @ 57.33 pence

Don't you just love consistency. The phrase I used to be indecisive but now I#m not sure comes to mind

[mistertibbs] 17/4/2006 16:27

The negative arguments are very clear and appear to be coming from all corners of the city. Comparing WH Smith and Woolworths with Clintons? Do you go into any of these places to buy only a card or related product? Do people need to go to Clintons to buy a card? Only reservation I have of selling is like Thorntons who a previuos person mentioned as having a rough time, woolworths and Smith have other problems, not only cards.Woolworths a mainly toy shop these days and Smith a stationary reseller and Clinton's basically exclusively a card retailer and everybody knows this. Competion is nothing new. Shoppers will be back at some point, it's just a matter of when, not if. I've had a look in these stores and supermarkets at their cheap cards and if anybody wants to send one of these products, it may sum up their feelings towards that person, because they are absolutely dreadful.

From your comments, I believe this recommendation was made on 28/03 or was it later? There have been no RNS since trading statement so I take it the profit will be close to estimates at the time of £6 - £8 m, either barely or not covering the dividend, assuming there is one. Is the high street spending problem new? No.I'm really looking forward to the results now with all this negative speculation. As for brokers recommendation, I assume they always get it right? I also assume the shares will indeed fall after the results but I'm not normally one for selling at the first sign of trouble. After all, it was only about 12- 18 months ago that body shop was heavily tecommended by brokers and share magazines alike to sell at roughly £1.50p Now being taken over at £3. Same situation in that supermarkets and superdrug, boots, other independents muscling in on BOS type of products. We can go anywhere to buy cheaper soap and shower gel products but quality and specialists can and do survive.

[frances2] 17/4/2006 11:30

Numis has the following to add

CLINTON CARDS (66p, Mkt cap £186m) - SELL - Target Price 50p (from 70p)
- Downgrade
Last different rec: Hold, 28 March 2006
* We are cutting our target price on Clintons from 70p to 50p, taking
the recommendation from Hold to Sell.
* This target price equates to 6x EV/EBITDA, broadly in line with the
likes of Woolworths and WH Smith. Given the challenges facing Clintons
in the next six months, we see no reason why it should trade at a
premium to these two.
* A reminder of the key risks:
1) Tough market: we know that high street footfall is well down and WH
Smith confirmed yesterday that the greetings card market remains tough.
2) Struggling to maintain market share: not only is competition from
the supermarkets intensifying, but WH Smith is becoming a more
formidable rival too.
3) Integration issues with Birthdays: we have already had two
substantial profit downgrades since the acquisition of Birthdays in late
2004.
4) Heavily geared: the business has relatively little headroom in its
facilities, particularly as the working capital cycle peaks in October.
There could be real issues with the banks if the trading performance
deteriorates.

[onehandeconomist] 15/4/2006 13:38

Like I said on 12/4 this a very interesting stock! Really comes down to how much you think is already in the price. I'm not too phased about supermarkets. If a customer really wants to buy cheap cards, you can do it on the net or go out of town to Tesco's or even a card party in your mate's home(the new Anne Summers?), for that matter crayon one yourself and save a £1, but CC isn't really in the bulk purchase market - more sells to the impulse /office worker/ 'need just one card' market where location and choice matter.

Now I do agree that if I was Chez Clinton, I'd rather take it private at 50 than 60 but there's a small problem. You probably need a few of those banks or private equity boys to lend you some dosh to do it. They won't do it if they don't think you can make the thing work. So Chez Clinton needs to show that they have turned the corner in running the business. At 50p they'd probably not be showing that. If they are turning it round then sweet spot is about now when you can show the turn around to a serious due diligence team but the wider market doesn't believe it.

Equally market knows that retail sales are awful, so revenue is under pressure. But what we don't know is how the cost side is going. This is far more of a company-specific issue than the sales side. If they can show that they are now making better progress at sorting out the Birthdays bumps, stock trades up.

And that's the trading edge I'm looking for. Everyone expects bad news, no one expects a bottom line surprise because they only see the top line horror story. Assymetric risk - love it.

So, Soulman, it takes two sides to make a market - feel free to short away and let me buy on a decent dip. But I agree that this is not one to bet the farm on.

One of us will be right!

[mistertibbs] 14/4/2006 19:52

Got the message soulman. Will consider carefully what you said. Thank you

[soulman08] 14/4/2006 19:27

IM SORRY TO SAY LOOK AT TODAYS PAPERS THEY GIVE A VERY DIM VIEW OF THE FORTH COMING RESULTS. I am going 100,000 short on tuesday because I really believe there is much more downside to come. I have retail outlets of my own and believe me, business is really bad, the only thing im doing well in is selling cards at 3 for a £1. I know the local manager in my shopping centre for clintons, things are getting worse. I usually do not go short with many stocks but I can not see this getting better soon. As others have said I think the family want to take the company private, but why pay 60p+ when you could get it at between 40p-50p bracket, thats where i see this heading.DONT FORGET THE RESULTS ARE OUT SOON IF THERE NOT GOOD YOU WILL SEE THIS DROP 6-10P ON THE DAY.p.s THIS IS NOT A DERAMP BECAUSE OF MY STOCK STRATEGY, BUT JUST A BUSINESS THINKING MATTER.

[mistertibbs] 13/4/2006 16:53

I agree on the pricing as the supermarkets are screwing everybody in order to have it all their own way. The shop today in a main street in Glasgow was extremely busy with queues at the tills so some shops look like they are doing ok. Niche players in any industry must be able to stand out for a particular reason for people to go shopping in a speciality shop as opposed to buying all in a big store and think/hope clintons offer enough difference in their stores to attract that shopper.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2006 13:03

Whilst in Ilkley yesterday I went into Clintons, for the first time, to buy a birthday card for my five year old niece. I picked a card with a badge and picture of a fairy. I took it to the till and was shocked when the price came up as £3.90. In Asda it would cost £2.00, or less. I picked another card for around £2.00.

If this pricing is indicative the supermarkets could eat their lunch!

Good fortune!

[ghc] 13/4/2006 12:50

I work in the greetings card industry, and in my opinion these results will be bad, I know of one greetings card group that has gone belly up today and more will follow, the industry is in a big downturn and clintons with their overheads have got to be struggling. IMHO

[mistertibbs] 12/4/2006 20:02

ps...I still buy all my cards and stamps from a clintons /birthdays shop. Hope you all do too.

[onehandeconomist] 12/4/2006 17:10

Yup, good points, especially as all three of them sell stuff that you wouldn't readily buy off the net so they shouldn't be suffering from sales substitution, only general consumer retrenchment. But High Street Misery is not new news so unless we think there's a whole other down leg in consumer spending, I'm still a happy if risky buyer on any weakness.

[handycam] 12/4/2006 14:49

Well, Thorntons said life was intolerable. Smith's today talked of impact of reduved consumer spending.

Yours etc.,

[onehandeconomist] 12/4/2006 11:25

A very interesting stock which I own small. Birthdays was obviously a harder swallow than they expected. Last trading statement suggests that they're begining to get there. So do you criticise the management for getting it wrong in the first place or vote for them in getting it right now? Me - I'd vote with them. They're a long served management team that know their stuff and have their money where they're mouth is (40pct of the company is theirs). Acquisitions can't always be made on exactly the right terms or time - like buses, you have to catch them when they come along - so forgive them if the early post acquisition ride was bumpier than expected. No long term damage done if you believe management is good enough to pull it around.

The dividend is a clear risk. Forecasts on BSL website suggest 3.58p vs earnings 2.04p. Not a game you can play indefinitely. But this should already be well in the price.

Then there's the family interest point. Mr Lewin senior is on record of being very frustrated that the market never gives his share price for the credit of the value they deliver. Last year there was talk of taking it private. Nothing happened but then fixing Birthdays was the priority. However, if its turning around and the market is still not crediting them with it, now or soon would be a great time to do it from management's perspective - they are the experts at buying low and selling high after all.

So IMHO and DYOR but this feels like a high risk buy on weakness story - and we're there or thereabouts at 66p. Question is do you buy ahead of the news or after (27th April interims). My vote is before - more surprises possible on the upside than downside.

Any one disagree or got another angle?

[bigboyo] 12/4/2006 06:49

No miracles expected. Tough trading out there still.

Realistically, expect another down (no price target cause do not want to be accused of deramping) before a charge northwards ...

Look at charts, cyclical stock but the cycle is rather long

[verynervy] 10/4/2006 15:46

Well did a sortie into norwich 2 stores with a fair few shoppers in so.....................heres hoping

[mistertibbs] 05/4/2006 18:25

Well lets hope we find out more when they announce results on 27th April

[factsonly] 03/4/2006 09:57

peanuts... yes, but add on legal fees and the amount of management time used up in dealing with this and it probably racks up to £600k. And it sure doesn't help the shareprice break out of its downtrend.

[verynervy] 03/4/2006 08:47

peanuts - but about time all that instore space was properly utilised!

[factsonly] 02/4/2006 17:47

Unfortunately, this might put off any buyout and prevent a near term recovery in Clinton Cards share price...

[firenza3] 01/4/2006 14:18

Looking DOOMED!