City Of London Investment Share Discussion Threads

[tim 3] 01/8/2018 08:36

i dont think the massive spread helps these.

[my retirement fund] 31/7/2018 20:56

Dont want to rush. Want an average of 3.50 before ex dividend date. Plenty of time. All good things come to those who wait etc.

[eggbaconandbubble] 31/7/2018 17:03

Tomorrow morning then?

[my retirement fund] 31/7/2018 14:56

Dipped my toe in. Will average down as and when opportunity knocks further.

[robsy2] 20/7/2018 11:53

I hope you are right, then we can all buy some more. In that sense 3.50 is more interesting than 4.50.
R2

[my retirement fund] 20/7/2018 11:28

Its pretty simples really. Touched 4.50 back then but emerging markets have been savaged since to 3.50 now given in reality its worth 4.50 on a credible stock market in a credible country. Fir example Frankfurt or New York.So discount for basket heads and yea 3.50

[cockerhoop] 20/7/2018 09:47

Probably about the same insight that went into this post! :-)

My Retirement Fund 19 Feb '18 - 11:14 - 2034 of 2077

Very mute reaction to shareprice. This really ought to be above £5 now and more like £5.50 imo

[wildshot] 20/7/2018 09:33

Thanks for the insight My Retirement Fund, sub £4 is factually correct. How did you arrive at £3.50, is there any calculation or logic to arrive at this specific number?

[my retirement fund] 19/7/2018 18:15

This is going sub £4 and headed to £3.50 imo

[eggbaconandbubble] 19/7/2018 10:11

Sorry! I meant a drop in their forecast! i.e. it won't rise as much as they initially anticipated.

[cockerhoop] 19/7/2018 06:58

Eggs,They don't forecast a drop in the divi! They forecast it will rise from 27p this year to 28p next.

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/7/2018 17:35

Why do they forecast a drop in the divi? It's well covered!

I guess Zeus's mate is piling up at these prices.

[masurenguy] 18/7/2018 17:26

Cheers astonedt - I note their more modest revised projections for Y/E 2018.

Zeus view. In rising markets CLIG delivered FuM, revenue, EPS and DPS growth. The recent fall in emerging markets has depressed profits and EPS slightly below forecast. We are impressed by the success of CLIG’s diversification products, where the relative performance has been positive and $400m of net inflows have increased FUM to $900m (up 95% on 30 June 2017: $461m). Rebasing our forecasts to current market levels, we cut our FY(Jun)19E EPS forecasts by 11.6% to 40.4p (previously 45.7p), and trim our FY(Jun)19E DPS forecast by 3.4% to 28p (previously 29p).

[masurenguy] 17/7/2018 14:59

Latest Hardman view !

Dividend increase boosts yield

City of London published a trading statement this morning, covering FY2018. Profits are expected to be almost in line with Hardman & Co forecasts, with PBT of approximately £12.8m slightly lower and earnings of £10.1m slightly ahead. The latter represents an increase of over 10% relative to the previous year. The company also announced an increase of 1p in the final dividend, raising it to 18p, and taking the total for the year to 27p, an 8% increase over the total for FY2017. Dividend cover will be almost 1.5x for the second year in a row, well above the rolling five-year target of 1.2x.

► Funds under management (FUM): Although, in dollar terms, FUM rose 9.5% to $5.1bn over the year, this is down since the 31 March figures. Since then, emerging market equities have been very weak, falling over 10% during the quarter, although July has so far seen a slight recovery.

► Diversification: While the EM strategy had a mixed year, the diversification areas all gained assets and maintained outperformance. In aggregate, FUM in these areas almost doubled during the year and now represent 17.6% of FUM, from 9.8% a year ago. The diversification strategy is showing good results.

► Valuation: The prospective P/E of 9.9x is at a significant discount to the peer group. The historical yield of 6.6% is very attractive and should, at the very least, provide support for the shares in the current markets.

► Risks: Although emerging markets can be volatile, City of London has proved to be more robust than some other EM fund managers, aided by its good performance and strong client servicing. Further EM volatility may increase the risk of such outflows, however.

► Investment summary: Having shown robust performance in challenging market conditions, City of London is now reaping the benefits in a more supportive environment. The valuation remains reasonable. FY2017 and FY2018 both saw dividend increases and, unless there is significant market disruption, more should follow in the next few years.

Hardman is forecasting dividend increases to 30p in 2019 and 33p in 2020.

[cockerhoop] 17/7/2018 12:06

Eggs,

FUM down from $5.8bn to $5.1bn in last 5 months. Tariff wars perceived to be negative for EM. Average FUM may well be lower in $ terms in FY2019 compared to FY2018.

Saying that still at the lower end of my personal valuation metrics.

[my retirement fund] 17/7/2018 11:00

Yea its listed in London. Hence the discount.If it were listed in the US it would be double its present worth. Listed in France or Germany at least 50% more.However its listed in London thus basket case discount applied.

[eggbaconandbubble] 17/7/2018 10:36

I can't see any reason for the recent pullback in the share price Anyone?

[masurenguy] 17/7/2018 08:07

Good update with a 10% increase in FUM and profits plus an 8% increase in the dividend.!

RNS Number : 8098U
City of London Investment Group PLC
17 July 2018

PRE-CLOSE TRADING UPDATE for the year to 30 June 2018

City of London (LSE: CLIG), a leading specialist asset management group focused on emerging markets and closed-end funds, provides a pre-close trading update for its financial year ended 30 June 2018. The numbers that follow are all unaudited.

Funds under management were US$5.1 billion (£3.9 billion) at 30 June 2018 (2017: US$4.7 billion or £3.6 billion), representing a 10% increase in US$ terms for the year. A breakdown by strategy follows:

The core EM strategy underperformed (by approximately 330bps, net of fees) for the full year as discounts widened (cost approximately 200bps) and an underweight to China, specifically the IT sector detracted from performance. The Developed, Opportunistic Value (formerly GTAA) and Frontier strategies all recorded positive relative performance due to a combination of positive discount and allocation effects.

The Group's overhead for the year to 30 June 2018 is expected to be £12.5 million (2017: £11.9 million) and the current monthly run-rate is c £1.1m. For the year to 30 June 2018, the Group expects that pre-tax profits will be approximately £12.8 million (2017: £11.6 million), and that profits after an anticipated tax charge of £2.7 million (21% of pre-tax profits) will be approximately £10.1 million (2017: profits of £9.1 million after a tax charge of £2.5 million, representing 22% of pre-tax profit). Basic and fully diluted earnings per share are expected to be 39.5p and 39.3p respectively (2017: 36.9p and 36.7p).

The Board is recommending an increased final dividend of 18p per share (2017: 17p). This would bring the total for the year to 27p (2017: 25p), for dividend cover of 1.47 times (2017: 1.46 times). The Board confirms the final dividend timetable for the year to 30 June 2018:
-- ex-dividend date: 11 October 2018
-- dividend record date: 12 October 2018
-- payable: 30 October 2018

City of London expects to announce final results alongside publication of its Accounts for the year to 30 June 2018 on 17 September 2018. The Group's AGM will be held on 22 October 2018.

[robsy2] 11/7/2018 17:03

It’s a steady way to play E M . Divi comes in, maybe some upside in rhe share price as well .
R

[eggbaconandbubble] 11/7/2018 14:11

I'm with you on that one.

[tim 3] 11/7/2018 13:52

Bought in @ 400 looks cheap long term imo.

[montyhedge] 08/7/2018 12:56

The final dividend will be announced on the 17th July wonder if increase?