City Of London Investment Share Discussion Threads

[vfast] 21/2/2017 10:22

21st Feb update N+1 Singer no change from last update for earnings and dividend.

2017 DPS 24p

2018 DPS 27.5p

2019 DPS 30.1p

[luckymouse] 20/2/2017 20:03

I wonder where he got that from lol - I hope this rises for you guys - as a safe div play perhaps - but not my style - I want to see mgrs sticking to their theme and waiting for the flows to come to them, or actively moving into the flows in timely fashion - and bigger %s. I reckon the recent money flow on the chart was someone who just got bored.
Could be a cup n handle on the monthly.
ATB LM

[vfast] 20/2/2017 19:56

Zeus Capital 20 February 2017

City of London Investment Group*

CLIG Financials

1H PBT up 61%; EPS up 68%

What’s new
Interim results from City of London Investment Group (CLIG), released this morning, are precisely in line with the pre-close update on 17 January, which revealed:
 Total funds under management (FuM) 31 Dec 2016 of $4.1 bn (£3.3 bn);
2.5% rise since 30 June 2016 when FuM was $4.0 bn (£3.0 bn).
 PBT for 1H17e rose 61% to £5.8m (1H16: £3.6m), with a monthly "run-rate" for operating profit, before profit-share of £1.4m per month.
Today’s announcement and interim results reveal:
 FuM on 31 January 2017 was US$4.2bn (£3.3bn).
 1H17 revenues rose 30% to £15.4m (1H16: £11.8m).
 Diluted EPS rose 68% to 17.5p (1H16: £10.4p).
 December 2016 cash & cash equivalents of £10.5m (Dec 2015: £8.4m).
 An unchanged interim dividend of 8p (ex date 3 March).

The US$/£ exchange rate was 1.47 at 31 December 2015, 1.33 at 30 June 2016, 1.23 on 31 December 2016 and 1.27 on 31 January 2017.

Zeus view
As we expected CLIG’s 1H17 DPS remained unchanged at 8.0p (1H16: 8.0p). As 1H17 Diluted EPS rose 68%, while PBT rose 61%, the results are ahead of our expectations. After increasing our FY(June)17e PBT forecast 2.8% on 17 January, we maintain our forecasts.

Year to date the MSCI emerging market index is up 9.7%. At 946 it is 13.4% above 30 June 2016 of 834, and 6.3% above our forecasts of 890. If markets remain strong, we may need to raise our forecasts.

We will review our forecasts in April when CLIG releases its 3Q trading update.

Valuation
In the past month CLIG shares have risen from 350p to 373p (3 month high/low: 375pp; 333p), its historical dividend yield is 6.4%. Its 2017 dividend yield on our forecasts is 6.7%, which is 74% more than the FT All Share yield of 3.7%. A more reasonable 50% premium would set a target dividend yield of 5.55% dividend yield, implying a 455p CLIG target price

[luckymouse] 20/2/2017 19:52

Masurenguy - tks - good note - so in short yes - a lucky ccy filip - not skilled outperformance denoted by agility, in their field of expertise, around key political rotation events - although not exactly sold that way in the statement.

I don't totally buy the chairman's comment about emerging mkts being entirely unpredictable and wildly volatile - esp the way he deliberately left out the context. China every 10-15 yrs or so has an insane bubble then a collapse - it just does - its in their nature - and Brexit prompted one of the biggest and most profitable flights to emerging off shore in decades - many ITs, funds, etfs up 40-100% in that risk off rotation - absolutely obvious unless you were wearing a blindfold. So unless they were 100% locked into their holdings (?) then I don't understand it.

Why didn't they rotate when the paradigm changed? Unless its static assets or a static theme, that's exactly what they are paid for no?

[vfast] 20/2/2017 19:46

Thanks Masurenguy for the Hardman report.

I've moved my account to Hargreaves Lansdown and recieved my £500 today.

Barclays did not charge any leaving fees, that's the easiest £500 I've ever made.

[masurenguy] 20/2/2017 17:30

Hardman & Co - February 2017
City of London Investment Group (CLIG)
H1 results confirm dividend cover

City of London has published its interim report for 1H2017. With the headline figures having been announced in last month’s trading statement, the report contains few surprises. As previously indicated, the movements in the dollar/sterling exchange rate have greatly increased most lines in the P&L. Gross revenue of £15.4m is 31% ahead of the 1H2016 figure. With more revenue earned in dollars than expenses, earnings have seen a bigger increase, by 64% to £4.27m

Market Data:
Price (p): 375.0
Mkt Cap (£m): 100.9
Sector: Financial Services

Dividend: An unchanged interim dividend of 8p has been announced. A decision on the final dividend has been deferred until the end of the financial year, with the hope that the outlook for the following year will be clearer then.

Funds under management: Emerging markets, like many others, have had a good start to 2017 and at the end of February FUM had increased to $4.2bn. There was no further update on new business flows other than indicating there are prospects across the product range.

Valuation: The prospective P/E of 9.8 times is at a significant discount to the peer group. The historic yield of 6.4% is very attractive and should at the very least provide support for the shares in the current volatile markets. At current market levels we’d expect dividend cover to be restored in 2017.

Risks: To date, City of London has not experienced the sort of outflows that some other emerging market fund managers have, aided by its good performance and strong client servicing. Further EM volatility may increase the risk of such outflows however.

Investment summary: City of London has continued to show robust performance in challenging market conditions. The valuation remains reasonable. At current FUM and exchange rates, dividend cover will return to a comfortable position and investors can perhaps start thinking about future increases.

[luckymouse] 20/2/2017 16:53

Err, hang on... so if the FUM are nearly flat in USD, how come the PBT is up 60%? Have they simply aggressively cranked the fees? And/Or has charging fees based in dollars, then converting that rake into pounds (now more because of the devaluation), caused much of the uplift? ie nothing to do with performance really?

[montyhedge] 20/2/2017 08:50

Superb, thought the dividend could have been increased, then this shareprice would be 425p now.

[vfast] 20/2/2017 08:48

Nice to see a solid set of results and another 8p interim dividend.

[my retirement fund] 20/2/2017 08:24

Multi year breakout gotta be a certainty here imo

[my retirement fund] 20/2/2017 08:22

So it sounds from that statement that they may raise the final dividend. Jolly good then.

[masurenguy] 20/2/2017 07:56

Great set of interims !

RNS Number : 2761X
20th February 2017

CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT GROUP PLC

HALF YEAR RESULTS TO 31ST DECEMBER 2016

City of London (LSE:CLIG) announces half year results for the six months to 31st December 2016.

SUMMARY

Funds under Management ("FuM") of US$4.1 billion (£3.3 billion) at 31st December 2016. This compares with US$4.0 billion (£3.0 billion) at the beginning of this financial year on 1st July 2016 and US$3.8 billion (£2.6 billion) at 31st December 2015

FuM at 31st January 2017 of US$4.2 billion (£3.3 billion)

Revenues representing the Group's management charges on FuM were £15.4 million (2015: £11.8 million)

Profit before tax of £5.8 million (2015: £3.6 million)

Maintained interim dividend of 8p per share payable on 17th March 2017 to shareholders on the register on 3rd March 2017

Cash and cash equivalents at the period end of £10.5 million (2015: £8.4 million)

[cockerhoop] 07/2/2017 12:06

If I squint I can make it $4.2bn :-)

[tmfmayn] 07/2/2017 09:24

FUM up slightly for January
hxxp://citlon.co.uk/shareholders/announcements.php

[garycook] 27/1/2017 14:51

MM,s opening the Spread up now showing 382 to buy and 355 to sell.But are actually 375 to buy,and 363 to sell

[vfast] 24/1/2017 15:42

HARDMAN RESEARCH:Q2 STATEMENT ROBUST PROFITABILITY

Tue 24 Jan 2017 15:24
RNS Number : 0005V
City of London Investment Group PLC
24 January 2017

Hardman Research: Q2 statement shows robust profitability

Q2 statement shows robust profitability: City of London has issued a trading statement for the first half of the 2017 financial year. As we noted previously, emerging market equities performed poorly in November, offsetting some of the good performance in the previous quarter and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index finished the half up 4.5%. City of London's FUM were $4.1bn at 31 December, up 2.5% from the $4.0bn as of the end of June. Investment performance has been challenging in the main emerging strategy market, with country allocation and underlying CEF performance contributing to a lagging of the market.

hxxp://hardmanandco.com/docs/default-source/company-docs/city-of-london-investment-documents/clig-report-24-01-2017.pdf

[stun12] 19/1/2017 11:53

Not very liquid, is it? Small share count I suppose, and yield investors holding on. I've bought a small amount for my SIPP as PHNX was getting a bit too dominant in there. I might add more if it actually starts trading at some stage during a market correction.

[vfast] 19/1/2017 10:44

N+1 Singer unchanged from last forecast.

DPS E2017 = 24p

DPS E2018 = 27.5p

DPS E2019 = 30.1p

[vfast] 19/1/2017 10:30

Zeus Capital 17th of January 2017

City of London Investment Group* CLIG Financials

Pre-close shows 1H PBT up 61%

What’s new Today’s pre-close statement from City of London Investment Group (CLIG) reveals:

 Total funds under management (FuM) 31 Dec 2016 were $4.1 bn (£3.3 bn); 2.5% rise since 30 June 2016 when FuM was $4.0 bn (£3.0 bn).

 Unaudited PBT for 1H17e of c. £5.8m, (up 61% from 1H16: £3.6m), with a monthly "run-rate" for operating profit, before profit-share of £1.4m per month. CLIG’s investment performance has been “challenging”: country allocation “weak” and NAV performances of portfolio Closed End Funds (CEF) has been “poor”. Discounts remain wide generally: size-weighted average discount (SWAD) is c.13%-14%, suggesting significant strategy value for investors in CEF. Active pipeline of >$400m, is spread across Emerging and Developed Markets, Global Tactical Asset Allocation, Tactical Income, and Frontier CEF strategies. Management has updated its “template̶1;, which shows:

 1Q17 & 2Q17 exceeded management’s previous expectations.

 Management expectations for 2H17 have been maintained.

 Dividend cover is increasing (assuming the DPS is unchanged).

Zeus view We take this opportunity to adjust our forecasts to reflect new management guidance. Assuming new guidance and an exchange rate of £1=$1.25, we raise our FY17e adj PBT forecast by 2.8% to £11.5m. Our unchanged DPS forecast of 25.0p is covered 1.36x by our new FY(Jun)17ec adj EPS of 34.0p (up 2.8%). Lower assumed growth in FUM in FY18e and higher operating cost growth, means that we now reduce our FY18e adj EPS by 6.9% to 38.0p.

Prospects of 12% growth in adj EPS should encourage the Board to nudge the FY17e final dividend up by 1.0p to 17.0p and increase the FY18e interim DPS to 9.0p. The formal dividend policy is to have cover of 1.2x over a rolling 5 yr period. We expect CLIG’s 1H17 DPS to remain unchanged at 8.0p (1H16: 8.0p).

Valuation With CLIG shares at 350p (3 month high/low: 381p; 333p), its historical dividend yield is 6.9%. Its 2017 dividend yield on our forecasts is 7.1%, which is 92% more than the FT All Share yield of 3.7%. A more reasonable 50% premium would set a target dividend yield of 5.55% dividend yield, implying a 455p CLIG target price.

[jaws6] 18/1/2017 12:02

Will get another link on buy

[my retirement fund] 17/1/2017 14:38

Well yes but then there is no reason they cannot do a special dividend come Q4 in addition to the standard divi is there.

[masurenguy] 17/1/2017 12:58

I think that the update currently underpins the retention of the existing dividend of 24p (8p interim + 16p final) which provides a yield of 6.8% at todays shareprice. I can't see any increase in the dividend until they achieve their target ratio of 1.2 x cover which indicates that they would have to deliver an eps of at least 30.0p before this was come under any serious consideration.

[vfast] 17/1/2017 12:29

Solid set of figures in a controversial sector and looking at actual and forecast figures moving forward it does look promising for a dividend increase.

[my retirement fund] 17/1/2017 11:38

On course for a tasty dividend increase in the future then.

[speedsgh] 17/1/2017 10:04

Also from this morning's rns...

... Please see the attached graph which is based on the following assumptions and includes the estimated quarterly cost of a maintained dividend: