Circle Property Share Discussion Threads

[sirookietrader] 22/6/2007 15:21

Breakout! Good luck unionhall!

[bigbobjoylove] 22/6/2007 15:20

looks like they ve had an offer whats the nav??

[unionhall] 22/6/2007 15:13

Up 10p in 5 minutes - I've taken a gamble on those in the know knowing !!

[badgerry] 22/6/2007 15:11

Still no news but up 10p today - very strange behaviour!

[badgerry] 16/6/2007 17:48

SerpicoUK : Companies are usually acquired by the management of one company who think they can make a better of job of managing the assets of the company they acquire. So a poor management team may present a better one with an opportunity? I agree with you that projects in themselves do not make investors money but hedge funds in particular have been very successful at identifying underlying value in assets/projects that are ultimately realised by a new managment team or company. 20M shares dont change hands without someone having a long hard look at what they are buying - time will tell and we should get some shareholder notifications next week to clarify fridays trading.

[serpicouk] 16/6/2007 17:37

Stemis, I'm not interested in bad mouthing other companies.

[stemis] 16/6/2007 16:58

Well, I guess my issue is that AIM is littered with 'elephant sized' 'massively undervalued' 'Company making' projects that are plagued by mis-management and result in a woeful share price performance.

Care to share any names with us?

[serpicouk] 16/6/2007 15:49

Well, I guess my issue is that AIM is littered with 'elephant sized' 'massively undervalued' 'Company making' projects that are plagued by mis-management and result in a woeful share price performance. Good projects in themselves do not offer good value to long term shareholders. It's the management that adds the value to the project.

I have no doubts that the projects CRC hold are very good. However, the company told its investors that it was financed, that start up was on schedule to start by October and that de-watering was near completion.

After a news blackout the truth emerged that the costs had been significantly miscalculated resulting in a probable additional placing. The higher costs mean the IRR has dropped from 80% to 52% at historic copper prices. The project schedule has slipped to an unclear point next year and de-watering was not near completion.

Either the management were stupidly optimistic or they were economical with the truth. Both characteristics trouble me so I will wait to see how this develops over the next 6 months.

Best of luck to those that hold.

[stemis] 16/6/2007 10:07

Difference is CRC is valued at £60M and Nikanor is valued at £1.3bn. There's no comparison.

CRC is a super project (when, or if, it gets going) but at the moment there is too much uncertainty for me to invest.

[rvsy38] 16/6/2007 07:36

I didn't give you a list of projects.

You asked " Where can you get a 15yr mine life producing 50,000+ tons of Cu with a 5% grade."

I answered and rest my case.

[badgerry] 15/6/2007 21:48

Whats that got to do with CRC I didnt ask for a list of Cu projects in the Congo. I am simply pointing out the fact that there may well be considerable value in CRC for long term investors. Nikanor would cost substantially more to acquire than CRC as it is a much larger project and is not a comparative.

[rvsy38] 15/6/2007 20:08

How about Nikanor in the DRC ? They should produce 250000 tpa cathode copper plus 20000 tpa cobalt ( as hydroxide) from ore grading + 5% copper with approx 35 mineyear life.

Project is currently under construction with start up in 2009. Glencore recently took major stake in Nikanor ( £ 150 million ) with an agreement to market the entire production.

[badgerry] 15/6/2007 18:40

Seems to me that someone thinks that Kinsenda is worth a lot of money irrespective of the dealys. Where can you get a 15yr mine producing 50,000+ tons of Cu with a 5% grade. CRC????

[serpicouk] 15/6/2007 16:55

From everything 'progressing on schedule/de-watering near completion' in Feb to the actual facts of something like only 50m further de-watering in the last 7 months, significantly under estimating costs to the tune of an additional placing and the upshot being planned start up going from a firm Oct 07 to a rather vague mid 08.

Needless to say I'm out as well, but like most I'm wondering why we got such a reasonable price considering the news...again, like most, I'll reconsider the situation early '08 when hopefully things are a little clearer.

[douggy b] 15/6/2007 14:41

Placement?
or
Forrest 18mnth lock in ended on 31st May could be to do with that?

Whatever is going on today when the dust settles unless there is more news the share price is going down. News today was a disaster as far as I'm concerned put the company back to where it was this time last year.
What they did not put into the RNS today was that if Hinoba-an only had a 10 year life producing 15,000 a year it wouldn't be viable given the huge capex investment with a Cu price of $1.30 (per Kinsenda).

Results next week should prove interesting!

[pentangle] 15/6/2007 13:47

.............and the price has held up much better that one would reasonably have expected given the miserable news and all the early selling and is now strengthening. You really have to ask what is going on here.

[doverbeach] 15/6/2007 13:21

An 8 million share trade! 1/3 of the company has changed hands today!

[drewz] 15/6/2007 09:17

Hopeless. It would seem more sensible to take the proceeds and reinvest in ACU next door in Botswana where we know what is happening, we have a production date which can be met, and there is still a compelling growth story.

[wolstencroft] 15/6/2007 08:03

Well I've been out of these for a year only to go in last week to get out again today!!

[rvsy38] 15/6/2007 08:01

I was getting increasingly uneasy about CRC hence my post 683 of 11 June 2006.
I have no confidence in the estimates or schedule or their engineering contractor who seems to have messed up big time.
Bailed out this morning at a 10 % loss - for those attracted to the high grade deposits in the DRC I consider that Nikanor is the one to be in - see my views on the Nikanor thread.

[addas99] 15/6/2007 07:51

....and there's more than a few others trading on AIM!!

[unionhall] 15/6/2007 07:46

Only for insiders this one....

[reefseeker] 15/6/2007 07:26

Well I didn't think I'd get answers that quickly!

This is a tricky one. On the one hand those assets are sooo attractive, on the other there are all sorts of management and execution issues. Also, I've just realised that apart from Mitch and Sir Samual the board is dominated by the three Forrest reps, as Roger Marshall resigned last week (interesting timing in the light of todays news!).

So, its clear that, more than ever, this is a Forrest operation, effectively now a reverse takeover. I would guess that the US hedge fund L-R Global increased their stake in March based on this game plan; I'm sure their due diligence had full visibility to the state of the projects. I also wonder if L-R are mopping up the PI sales this morning and that is giving support to the price.

Finally, I wonder if the end game wil be Forrest taking the company private later this year at a price similar or below where we currently are. If so they stand to clean up big time.

Again, more questions than answers, but speculation such as this is inevitable if there is so little visibility on what is going on.