Circle Oil Share Discussion Threads

[marunam2] 31/5/2016 08:30

POO above $50 !!,
if it holds for a while and inventories deplete slowly and shale keeps cutting back on production and drilling then we should see a sustainable POO.

[steelwatch] 27/5/2016 15:26

Sound Energy (SOU) could be a possibility for a farm in to the Moroccan assets.

[learning curve] 27/5/2016 14:47

So what value NW Gemsa?

Given Sea Dragon achieved a netback of almost $10 a barrel in the last Q - at an avergage of just $25 a barrel, its not unreasonable to extrapolate the following:

- 10% production = 800 bopd [based on 8,000 total]
- = netback of c $6m pa [at a crazy low oil price achieved of $25 p barrel]
- assume a 5 year life for Gemsa = $30m in net revenues

So even after discounting for workover costs ... I'd suggest $20m for a 10% stake is not unreasonable.

All to play for in my view ... and I'm sure Sea Dragon is not the only player at the table.

[marunam2] 27/5/2016 13:00

Gerry,
Agree with you.
I am still of the opinion that they had to take a drastic route to getting paid higher amout of their arrears from Egypt.
otherwise why would the IFC keep saying they will stand by the Co'?
I'm taking the going back up punt as we get news of the dues being paid in the next few weeks.

Also , bear in mind the Resource update from the lenders CP was published on 29th April.
They must have argued about it , to and fro for at least a few weeks before they agreed.
So what was POO the CP used !!!,

How long before this was it carried out and what was the POO when the resources were valued ??

[learning curve] 27/5/2016 12:05

So, Sea Dragon going on record saying they are interested in acquiring some/all of COP's Gemsa interest...this posted on Sea Dragon board:

LSE Share Talk – Are Circle Oil partners in the AASE-24 well in Egypt? They essentially announced a fire sale of assets with Circle Oil is looking to sell its 40% stake in North West Gemsa field. Are SDX in the frame for acquiring all/part of this?

"Circle are indeed undertaking a well-documented strategic review and we have spoken to them and their advisors as part of that process. We like the North West Gemsa asset and would be keen to increase our interest in the field if that was an option."

[gerry hatrick] 27/5/2016 11:57

Still mesmerised why that RNS was issued portraying doom and gloom and having the share price tank ? ?
From day one it was known that IFC were going to be helpful and the last two RNS confirmed this.
A lot of short term profiteering going on here with the share price going from 2.5p down to 0.45p and then up to 0.725p in the space of a week.
As somebody earlier said if IFC restructure the debt, and Egypt pay up (which is almost certain now)and oil being currently on a firm rising trajetory, then we are back in play and no reason why the share price should not hit the low teens.
Alas I don't have the courage of my convictions and buy even more, as I am heavily investd currently BUT if I wasn't I would certainly give this a punt at these levels.

[marunam2] 27/5/2016 10:39

Also saw that SDX have yet to invoice the gas sales dues from Gemsa. so that is another few $m outstanding for COP.

IFC will surely allow many further waivers ( already 6 months ) because they have seen the POO improving from lows of $28pbo to $49pbo, that's nearly 80% increase.

Accumulating and trading it .

[marunam2] 27/5/2016 10:36

Also note , they did not complain at all about not getting a reasonable sum this month.

With Shell/BG getting 40% next month , you can bet your bottom dollar that all the IOC's will have wanted the same.

40% 0f $20m or so equals ????

[learning curve] 27/5/2016 10:16

Today's RNS is positive - it shows real flexibility on the part of IFC to work with COP to find a solution. I suspect they are willing to wait several more months yet.

Also, IFC currently requires a portion of its loan repaid - based on previous industry examples, I'd be surprised if this is more than 20% of the $55m loan.

With POO now c $50, Mitch's hand to do a deal to ensure COP's future is every so slightly strengthened. If EGPC plays ball and settles a large chunk of the $20m receivables, Mitch's negotiating hand will become much stronger.

[marunam2] 27/5/2016 08:43

buys showing as sells again.

[marunam2] 27/5/2016 07:42

SDX owed $4.7m for 10% share of Gemsa, we have 40%

[marunam2] 27/5/2016 07:37

They have been paid some dues for sure as SDX have been paid, at least a minimum 4 times and they were going to receive more than usual as they said.


The BG/ Shell deal for the dues must be applying across all the companies and end of June is when they will be re paid at least 40% more of their dues.
Hopefully by that time POO is above $50 and Egypt have received their $ influx from Saudi Arabia to pay a substantial amount of the dues.

Happier with this and now much more hopeful.

[learning curve] 26/5/2016 16:09

Worth a look @ Sea Dragons Q1 2016 results out today.

- net realised $ per barrel in Egypt was $25.65 [against Brent average of $33.75]
- royalties were $5.86 per barrel
- operating costs were $8.77 per barrel

leaving netback of $9.73 per barrel.

So, I suspect COP is netting c $30k per day after costs from Egypt over last Q...perhaps $2.5m net across the Q from Egypt?

[marunam2] 26/5/2016 15:32

Held up well so far , lets see what tomorrow brings.

[learning curve] 26/5/2016 10:32

Still demand for stock behind the scenes it would appear - can sell 1,000,000 @ .625p

[marunam2] 26/5/2016 08:53

Lets hope the news is good tomorrow .

[american idiot] 26/5/2016 08:29

and as the POO gradually creeps back up over the next few years COP shareholders will see that they were robbed of some damn good assets here.

Sighs.

[marunam2] 26/5/2016 08:14

POO $50pbo !!!!!

[learning curve] 25/5/2016 14:42

SDX Energy [just listed] has a market cap x5 COPs, yet it has only 10% of NW Gemsa v COP's 40% interest and produced significantly less than COP across its whole portfolio in 2015. However, its debt free.

Question is - what price, for say, 1/2 of COP's Gemsa stake? Would be a natural fit.

[investalvirgin] 25/5/2016 13:15

Lot of buys at .705 showing as sells. (just bought some)

[marunam2] 25/5/2016 12:51

Somebody buying in the background for last 2 days ?

[ps0u3165] 25/5/2016 12:30

3k buy .006975, A.J Bell.

[gerry hatrick] 25/5/2016 10:57

Just tried a dummy sell and buy of 250k - SELL price comes at 0.585p BUT no price available to BUY ?
Never had that before, have had no price to sell, Hmmm ?

[marunam2] 25/5/2016 10:35

Yes just tried a dummy sell of 100k shares and the price is above the ask :


Market Price
£0.0055
Current Price Improvement
£0.00031
Action
SELL
Quantity
100,000 shares
Symbol
COP
Firm Price
£0.00585