Circle Oil Share Discussion Threads

[marunam2] 13/6/2016 12:03

This and POO at $50 will make it easier for renegotiating the debt.

[gerry hatrick] 13/6/2016 10:09

Certainly has the feel of a level of confidence about COP.
Some good news,hopefully, about debt restructuring would be nice :)

[marunam2] 10/6/2016 16:03

Yes signs are good re the buying in the last few days, mind you we were 2.25p sometime ago and poo was $40-$45 on the back of that rns.

[learning curve] 10/6/2016 15:55

looks like something is afoot ...

[learning curve] 10/6/2016 13:04

Was thinking the same. Any buying action could indeed be a precursor to news ... several parties are likely to be involved in any deal and hence, the chance for leaks.

[marunam2] 10/6/2016 12:56

Some good buying in the last few days.
The good ship COP has always been a bit leaky.

[thesturge] 10/6/2016 12:32

COP never fails to surprise.
On a day when the entire FTSE 100 is down we are up!
It is a sad state of affairs when a quarter of a pence move is good news.
Let's hope there is still life in the good ship COP.

[marunam2] 09/6/2016 19:50

Monday possibly if good.

[learning curve] 09/6/2016 15:42

Online quotes suggesting a move up - can sell upto 1m @ 62.5p, but only buy 15,000 @ 65p.

[ifthecapfits] 09/6/2016 13:42

News tomorrow then ;)

[marunam2] 09/6/2016 13:35

Old Gulfsands Acreage up for sale

[gerry hatrick] 09/6/2016 09:32

Wexboy I agree and so is ignoring potential big assets ..Mahdia !

[wexboy] 08/6/2016 17:21

Ignoring liabilities is definitely a bad idea (COP share price is a grim reminder of that...):

$21.6 million trade receivables minus $14.1 million trade creditors = $7.5 million net receivables.

[marunam2] 08/6/2016 16:03

POO $52.40.

[marunam2] 08/6/2016 13:29

"The CBE expects almost $4.5bn from Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the coming period, of which $2bn is provided by the UAE, and $2.5bn from Saudi Arabia.

The CBE also expects more foreign liquidity from the World Bank and the African Development Bank, on which the CBE had agreed in December 2015.

Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves need dollar liquidity urgently, as the country is facing major challenges including the repayment of external debt and covering import requirements of dollars locally."

[marunam2] 08/6/2016 13:28

Money on its way to CBE.

$9 billion addition this coming period.

[learning curve] 08/6/2016 11:39

Brent crude now almost $52 a barrel.

Wexboy is c $15m out on reveivables

[marunam2] 07/6/2016 12:36

POO $51pbo reached.

[pussycat69] 05/6/2016 07:31

hey wexboy if your so clever how much have you made shorting circle then.

[marunam2] 04/6/2016 10:12

recievables 7.5 m !!!

[gerry hatrick] 04/6/2016 09:37

Sombre reading indeed and probably correct, although needs clarifying about POO used and the valuation of $8, $4 & $2 used, also why no reflection of the potential value of Mahdia ?
Maybe I'm clutching at straws, but if the debt can be structured and POO keeps increasing surely the picture changes ?

PS. Googled Wexboy and saw his blog on First derivatives saying :

'My last write-up was bang in the middle of a sickening price reversal. While FDP got nearly sliced in half at the time, my price target’s been massively adrift ever since.'

So maybe,just maybe, you've got it wrong again !

[wexboy] 03/6/2016 15:51

2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part II):

Company: Circle Oil (COP:LN)

Last TGISVP Post: Here

Market Cap: GBP 3.8 M

Price: GBP 0.68p

After initiating a strategic review in March, management came clean just over a week ago, admitting there’s little or no value attributable to shareholders. Regular readers will presume I cracked open a beer to celebrate another investor death-trap biting the dust. Alas, no… In my last write-up, I did tag COP as significantly over-valued, but I also highlighted it as one of the few junior resource stocks that could boast revenue, profits, and even free cash flow! So it’s a crying shame to see it go under…

Which prompts the question: Why am I trying to value it?! Simple…’cos there’s a bunch of sprockets out there who still believe the company may be worth well over 5 million bucks!? [Perhaps the same people who reckon Petroceltic (PCI:LN) shareholders are getting 31 cents per share? Er no, see p. 9/10). So it’s only right I burst their little bubble of hope… I should also defend Mitch Flegg, who was appointed CEO just a year ago & is almost entirely blameless here. Circle’s fate was actually sealed back in 2014, when it began drawing down on a $100 million IFC loan facility (which I specifically flagged as a huge risk) to fund an aggressive ramp-up in exploration & development. While funding such spending with debt is always a bad idea, it now looks like sheer lunacy in light of the oil price collapse. But unfortunately, that collapse only commenced in mid-2014, after two years of a stable $100+ oil price…and Circle’s spending orgy was obviously launched at that point. You know the rest – the drilling was touted as successful but we saw no meaningful increase in reserves, then reserves were decimated by a re-classification & the oil price collapse, which in turn breached the covenants of the IFC loan, all while the company was burning cash, and so on & so on…

A new reserve report shows 5.4 MMboe net proved (again, we’ll value at $8 per boe) & 2.3 MMboe net probable (at $4 per boe) – and since they’re producing fields, we’ll include 5.5 MMboe net possible/contingent (P50) (at $2 per boe). The other figures we need are here: As of year-end, COP had $10 million of cash, $7.5 million of net receivables, and $77.5 million of debt. Except we should also adjust for at least half year’s cash burn, to get us to end-June – the last interims indicate a $26 million semi-annual burn, so let’s use that to be conservative. [Sure, maybe the company’s on a starvation diet now…but if you run different numbers, you’ll see it makes no difference!]:

(5.4 M boe Proved * $8 + 2.3 M boe Prob * $4 + 5.5 M boe Poss/C’gent * $2 + USD 10.0 M Cash + 7.5 M Net Receivables – 77.5 M Debt – 26 M Semi-Ann Cash Burn) / 1.4623 GBP/USD / 566 M Shares = Zero

Yes. Circle Oil is, without a doubt, worthless…

And if you know anybody who’s still a shareholder – please oh please, pass along a right old slapping from me. I mean, really, how stupid can some people get…maybe they just deserve it!

Price Target: Zero

Upside/(Downside): (100)%

For related links/graphs/files, and more TGISVP analyses/price targets: Google the Wexboy investment blog.

[marunam2] 03/6/2016 09:36

Dollar Liquidity on the way for Egypt.
$4.5Billion from UAE and Saudi.

[learning curve] 01/6/2016 09:51

Oil heading to $60 this summer according to UAE Minister:

hxxp://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Heading-for-60.html

[marunam2] 31/5/2016 10:37

IFC still investing in Egypt even when payments from the Govt' are not regular.