Circassia Share Discussion Threads

[bc4] 09/12/2019 10:04

No I am not this is the CIR thread

[linton5] 09/12/2019 08:44

Lol to many got the same idea oh well off for a game of indoor bowls as mutts have been walked,hold on to your shares chaps mms will play a bit with this till news out

[linton5] 09/12/2019 08:42

Keep coming down lady want a final top up

[tewkesbury] 09/12/2019 08:09

In for a few more.

[gibbs1] 08/12/2019 16:19

74tom
8 Dec '19 - 14:51 - 763 of 765
0 0 0
Turvart, your posts are bizarre - I see you’ve been posting similar nonsense on Metro Bank. Which brokers are ramping idiots? Fincapp released a very detailed broker note at the end of September with a target price of 80p, it certainly isn’t ramping idiot material!

Turvart
8 Dec '19 - 15:31 - 764 of 765
0 0 1
it is if you bother to spend some research into visiting cities like I do and find metro bank is totally empty. dyor.
Turvart

8 Dec '19 - 15:34 - 765 of 765
0 0 2
there must of been 50,000 people in Bath yesterday but metro bank was totally empty, so you do the mathematics Einstein.


HEY CLEVER CLOGS

WHY POST HERE

TURVART YOU ARE CERTAINLY A DISRUPTIVE ELEMEMENT

WHY GO TO MANY CITIES, ARE YOU A SALESPERSON

WHY GO INTO A BANK BRANCH YOU SEEM TO DISPISE

HAVE YOU AN ACCOUNT THERE


CERTAINLY IT SHOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO YOU THAT MOST POSTERS THINK YOU A REAL PLONKER

[turvart] 08/12/2019 15:34

there must of been 50,000 people in Bath yesterday but metro bank was totally empty, so you do the mathematics Einstein.

[turvart] 08/12/2019 15:31

it is if you bother to spend some research into visiting cities like I do and find metro bank is totally empty. dyor.

[74tom] 08/12/2019 14:51

Turvart, your posts are bizarre - I see you’ve been posting similar nonsense on Metro Bank. Which brokers are ramping idiots? Fincapp released a very detailed broker note at the end of September with a target price of 80p, it certainly isn’t ramping idiot material!

[turvart] 08/12/2019 14:46

Just beware of the brokers on this stock because they are in the trade known has ramping idiots.

[turvart] 08/12/2019 14:42

I personally don't like the brokers that are covering this they are IMO ramping idiots and actually know nothing about trading, but this stock will go up, unfortunately I'm not going to be one of those ramping idiot brokers.

But this stock will go up.

[74tom] 08/12/2019 14:34

Oh absolutely, the point was to provide context for new investors. If the investment case was positive at 91p, why on earth isn’t it a slam dunk buy at 23p? This has a long way to re-rate before it can even be close to fair value, especially now breakeven is within sight and we have new directors buying £100k worth of shares!

[turvart] 08/12/2019 14:34

This stock is going to go up, unfortunately I'm not interested.

[spectoacc] 08/12/2019 14:30

@74tom - thanks for those, but using the IC has a barometer for CIR is, ahem, curious:

91p, Buy
Reiterates 91p Buy
77p Buy
34p Hold
Reiterated 34p Hold

Current price, even after recent excellent rally, 23.6p.

[74tom] 08/12/2019 14:27

Article 5:



Drug developers require a steady stream of positive clinical updates to underpin market valuations. Circassia Pharmaceuticals (CIR) provided shareholders with precisely that a month ahead of these full-year figures when it revealed that US regulators had given the green light to two of its chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) treatments.

It is too early to say whether the news has arrested the share price decline of the previous 12-months, but given that very few UK-sponsored drugs have been approved in the US in the past few years, so the news - particularly in relation to the Duaklir drug - would not have gone unnoticed amongst the sector heavyweights. The drugs are complementary in that patients using its existing COPD treatment Tudorza (which got the go-ahead for the inclusion of new clinical data on its label) can move on to Duaklir if their condition deteriorates without needing to change their inhaler device.

Bloomberg consensus gives revenues of £64.5m for the December 2019 year-end, with an accompanying adjusted earnings loss of 7.6p a share, before £84.8m and a 5.2p loss in the following year.

IC View

Duaklir was initially approved in the European Union five years ago, but the US launch in the second half of 2019 is highly significant given the potential up-scale. With a new revenue stream in prospect, 2018 may come to be seen as a watershed for the company. Though the net cash-outflow fell by two-thirds to £18.8m, the continued backing by AstraZeneca (AZN) – which boosted its holding to 19.9 per cent midway through last year – has been crucial. However, given the lowly free-float, shareholders may struggle to buy into the US growth story. Hold.
Last IC view: Hold, 34p, 01 Apr 2019”

[74tom] 08/12/2019 14:25

Article 4:



Shares in drug developer Circassia Pharmaceuticals (CIR) surged after US regulators gave its new chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) treatment, Duaklir, the green light. The drug should hit the market during the second half of 2019, and joins Circassia’s evolving portfolio of respiratory medicines as it transitions away from its allergy specialism to pursue more traditional therapy areas. Regulators have also agreed to include new clinical data in the label of Tudorza – another COPD treatment, which is already available in the US.

Approval of Duaklir by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has triggered a $20m (£15.2m) payment from Circassia to development partner AstraZeneca (AZN), which must be paid within the next 30 days. Meanwhile, a further $100m is due by the end of June 2019. The company says it is in discussions with third-parties "to satisfy all or part of these payments", but if financing is "not forthcoming" it will use a loan facility provided by AstraZeneca under the current agreement "to satisfy the outstanding amount".

IC View

Circassia has a 200-strong sales team in the US ready to ensure the latest respiratory drugs perform well. It’s been a long road for those investors who kept the faith, and while the company appears to have turned a corner, there’s still a lot at stake when it comes to executing a successful commercial launch of Duaklir. Factor in the ongoing discussions relating to the AstraZeneca agreement, and we’re inclined to take a step back. Hold at 34p.
Last IC View: Buy, 75p, 28 Sep 2018”

[74tom] 08/12/2019 14:21

Article 3:



Circassia’s (CIR) chief executive, Steve Harris, is rightly proud of his business's transition. Instead of “packing up and going home” after the failure of its allergy trial in 2016, the group has become a respiratory pharma specialist with a strong commercial presence in the US and plans to expand into China.

That doesn’t mean the last few years haven’t been tough for shareholders and these half-year results reveal continued disturbances as the dust settles. AstraZeneca’s (AZN) decision to up its stake to 19.9 per cent (thus reducing Circassia’s cash contribution to the partnership) has lowered the free float below the London Stock Exchange’s threshold, meaning Circassia is having to move to Aim.

But the rewards from the new strategy are beginning to emerge. Adjusted losses from continuing operations fell more than 50 per cent to £13.4m in the first half, due to a sharp drop in research and development expenditure. Management has halted investment in the new drugs pipeline in favour of Duaklir and Tudorza – the two medicines from the Astra partnership, both of which will receive US regulatory updates in March 2019. Sales from Tudorza rose 4 per cent compared with the second half of 2017 thanks to improved marketing efforts, while Duaklir has the potential to generate peak sales of $180m, according to analysts.

IC View

Progress from the Astra partnership has the potential to catalyse share price recovery after a difficult few years for Circassia investors. This is certainly an investment that requires patience, but the forecast sales growth from Duaklir and Tudorza in the US and the commercial opportunity in China keep us positive. Buy.
Last IC View: Buy, 77p, 13 Aug 2018”

[74tom] 08/12/2019 14:19

Article 2:



Since gaining access to two of AstraZeneca’s (AZN) respiratory drugs in March 2017, Circassia (CIR) has delivered plenty of good news – positive clinical updates from the Astra medicines, steady commercial expansion and a sharp drop in research and development spending. And yet the share price has fallen more than a fifth since then.

Most recently, the respiratory specialist – which has realigned its strategy since its major allergy trial failure in 2016 – has had its regulatory submission for Duaklir and Tudorza (the two drugs from Astra) accepted by the US Food and Drug Administration. That means it is likely to gain approval in March next year, which should boost group revenue. Broker Stifel thinks Duaklir has the potential to generate annual revenue of over $200m (£157m).

As Circassia creeps closer to a sharp uptick in commercial revenues from the Astra deal, we see no reason for recent share price weakness and retain our buy recommendation at 77p.

Last IC View: Buy, 91p 24 Apr 2018“

Shares in issue: 357m, market cap: £274m

[turvart] 08/12/2019 14:16

Its really good to see this CIR coming up, The Abbott really does deserve this to be honest. " The Abbott" really has solid research on this stock and I truly hope it comes good for him because he actually deserves it.

[74tom] 08/12/2019 14:16

Article 1;

“Tip update: Buy at 91p


The identity crisis at Circassia (CIR) stepped up a notch in 2017. As well as walking away from its allergy drugs business (which suffered after a major trial failure in 2016), the group is tapering investment in its generic respiratory portfolio following product development delays. Pure commercial pharma is the new focus, which is why the sales and marketing team now makes up three-quarters of the group’s headcount, while research and development (R&D) staff have been cut by 40 per cent.

Key to the group’s new strategy is its joint venture with AstraZeneca, which has given it access to the US commercial rights to two respiratory drugs, and its asthma drug NIOX, which recorded a 26 per cent increase in worldwide sales. Growth from these drugs is expected to push group revenue up to £80m by 2019.

Meanwhile, the operational realignment is expected to slash R&D costs, which will help lower adjusted cash losses to £27.6m in 2018 and £7.7m the year after that, according to broker Numis (from £34.7m in 2017). Excluding the discontinued programmes, a £37m impairment on product delays and the £42m one-off expenditure on the joint venture, R&D fell 54 per cent to £20.9m in 2017. What’s more, management is planning on paying for the next phase of drug development in the joint venture with new shares issued to AstraZeneca, helping to preserve cash.

IC View

Although still lossmaking, we feel Circassia continues to be unduly punished for its allergy disappointment and think pharmaceutical and commercial catalysts should push the share price higher in the coming months. Buy.“

Shares in issue at 24/04/18 : 333m, market cap £303m

[74tom] 08/12/2019 14:10

Have been digging this weekend as I was interested in why the share price has deteriorated so far since mid 2018. There is quite a bit out there, and I’ll start with a curious series of articles from Investors Chronicle - original text first follow by brief comments;

[mrfixituk] 07/12/2019 10:00

LXRX
JNCE

USA. Big increases in revenue and profit.

[mrfixituk] 07/12/2019 07:33

I don't know how to implement this:

You have to make the columns up yourself.

No Filters .. Just Data …
Name - EPIC - Close etc.. Then, to get the bowl (which relies on a determined price action over time periods) add several columns to show Price xx months ago,
xx years ago etc. - the same could be done for moving averages - or

- whatever you like .. Just pull up a Column to show the Data you require..


Then in Share scope .. Select all that (Edit / Copy)
and Paste it all onto an open, empty Excel Spreadsheet.

From there you use the Excel Sort & Filter facility to extract the
instruments that meet the criteria you're looking for.

I used 5,3 & 1 Year Prices. - because I was looking for Long term value opportunities on stock that might be 'bombed out .. but had a good pattern & probability of rising. (so Cup & Handle - or Bowl) suite

[spectoacc] 07/12/2019 07:23

Feels to me like the seller is still around - Invesco most likely - but getting nearer & nearer to the point where the buyers win out.

Can see CIR getting some Xmas tips, won't have gone unnoticed by the scribblers.