Why does your average price influence it? Surely you want the best return whatever situation. I would far rather have the doubling in value to get NAV in a few months than some vague hope of what may be. This will trade on a bumper discount to NAV as long as it trades. Continuation votes should be a great thing, instead lazy investors and a cosy City world means few ever come to anything. |
Agree, can't see it trading anyway near to NAV for foreseeable future so liquidation looks by far best option for shareholders. |
Presumably the continuation vote will very likely vote to continue. But I fail to see why, yes there is lots more visibility on good news but there is no great drive to the trust of new holdings being found, it is simply better news (awareness of) the rest. All investments are listed or more so could actually be traded privately. For me it will be 100% vote to not continue and we will unlock a big jump in share price from.here to get to the published NAV (or better as I think it would be liquidated at). Or vote to continue and we will be nowhere near the NAV for long to come. |
The analysts argued that the "market has been slow to recognise the potential catalysts on offer" for a portfolio that "typically responds positively to catalysts, either at the portfolio or the company level". |
nice to see my two forecasts come to fruition says he modestly :) . I am not often wrong but I was right again :) |
re. CHRY , chart shows good supportg at about 178 leval and might get there if US indices fall further and big news events out today of course. Or what do the CHRY experts think ? :) |
Arja, your recent posts are becoming exponentially more absurd. One wonders what's next! |
More nonsense arja. I’m not saying don’t trade if that works for you. Any method that works is worth doing. Long term buy and hold also works. I wonder if you have even heard about the first ISA millionaire, Lord John Lee? He has held many of his holdings for multiple years and some are now paying him an annual dividend of 100% and more. I.e more than his original stake back just in dividends every year. AND the share itself has multi bagged.
As it happens I also outperform markets in many years and occasionally don’t. I’m nowhere near as successful as John Lee but have done very well since adopting his methods.
Be prepared to accept that there are many ways to invest successfully.
btw a share can go up a lot on a positive trading statement and when Results are good. “Smart investors” as you claim who sell ahead of positive trading update miss out on those gains, and sometimes sell just before a bid that sends the share price soaring too. |
another thing you have not noticed is that it can be dangerous to hold a stock on an announcement day . Smart investors sell the day or day or so before and can buy back after the dust has settled and we see what market feels about the results . Or maybe you can beat the market ? :) . expect the unexpected sport ! |
kenmitch ,
Lack of understanding ? Sure , that is why I make heaps and even "scalp" at times on FX. Of course some stocks go up , with occasional dips , for years and are in NOR territory , eg PSH . But obviously you will have some which trend the wrong way and not cutting losses shows it is you who fails to understand the markets . As the expression goes " let your profits run and cut loss quickly ". Think about that and you should be able to understand that there is more than one way , YOUR way, to make money. I jump in and out of PSH , S32 and a few others frequently and am much better off than if I just held and failed to monitor provided I stickn to OAAT policy or maybe two in bullish markets |
Rathbone added |
arja.
I’m one of many competent investors who holds our successful share and Investment Trust shares for many years. The suggestion that doing this leads to big losses is nonsense and shows lack of understanding about how to INVEST successfully. If a share or Tdust we hold issues bad news then again competent investors know it’s often best to sell and take the profit or loss at that point. The result with this tactic is a portfolio where most of the holdings are in profit and some longer term holdings that have multibagged.
I’m not against trading and do it sometimes but usually only with a small trading stake as an addition to my core holding. |
How can you comment that long term holders avail of "temporary" falls? Literally zero successful fund managers would act in that manner. Or more precisely, certainly when temporary appears to mean for a few days and by looking at a chart!
Were it, say, a REIT where there is a clear interest rate component to the risk and yields fell to less than 1% (they did, of course), then temporary may make sense. But temporary in that context is a matter of months or even a year or two.
A combination of charts and short term is, as I said, for spivs. Sorry.
Additionally, the idea that frequent traders are likely to be more successful is entirely contrary to the prevailing data. At least for a price-taker, rather than a price-maker (who has the benefit of trade flow). |
even sensible long term holders exit and re-enter at a lower level if they feel a TEMPORARY fall is on the cards using chart maybe ! If you have been holding since 280 level or even 95 leval , you will feel pretty sick . |
what you fail to understand that often holding a stock a while or years can result in big losses as invbestors are usually slow to cut a loss and hang on too long . Traders like me rarely take a loss and it is a small one if we do . So SD free is very important if I want to gat most of the profot and the broker just £3 or £4 each way per trade. Only idiots like you call it "spiving " and there is more than one way to make heap of money and not just your way IF you do ! I bet the restv of your portfolio is not in overall profit :) |
after a hot day yesterday , I suppose profit taking today is logical. might leve it until later in week to open a position again :) |
 https://masterinvestor.co.uk/funds-and-investment-trusts/three-growth-trusts-that-could-make-a-comeback-in-2024/Chrysalis InvestmentsAnother opportunity that they highlight is Chrysalis Investments (LON: CHRY) that provides exposure to later stage private companies with long-term growth potential. It has really struggled and the shares are currently available at around a 44% discount to NAV.The trust is managed by a team from Jupiter Asset Management and it is selling pressure from the firm's open-ended funds that has forced the price so far below the value of the underlying assets. Numis says that this process has now largely cleared and the key to sentiment going forwards will be achieving successful exits.Chrysalis has recently announced an upcoming disposal that would add 4.1% to NAV and allow the Board's new capital allocation programme to kick in. The proceeds would be used to build a prudent cash reserve of about £50m, which would allow 25% of net cash profits to be distributed to shareholders via buybacks. The broker says that such a transaction would be a big step in the right direction. |
Hat tip to Affan
Zeus Capital initiated coverage. Make an note of some of the things they say:
" We estimate Chrysalis’ stake in Starling could be worth 33% more, equivalent to an additional 9.6p of NAV per share. Further, we think Chrysalis’ stake in Klarna could be worth c. 80% more (£169m), equivalent to an additional 12.4p of NAV per share. This uplift in Starling and Klarna would increase NAV per share by 15% to 165p, making the Chrysalis shares trade at a 52% discount. We see no reason why the carrying value of other major assets is too high, particularly as the interest rate tightening cycle in the UK, US and Eurozone comes to an end and discount rates start to fall."
" Furthermore, on 5 December Chrysalis announced it had visibility over a disposal that would add 5.5p per share to the Group’s NAV at 30 September 2023, which we estimate could result in an inflow of £56m if it relates to one of its three medium sized investments (see page 16), taking cash to c. £75m" |
thanks for comments DP and R . it really is doing well today and profit taking not happening yet .Quite a high volume stock too but spread a bit wide . |
We did revalue Klarna a fair chunk from £56m (Sept'23) to £93m. The IPO however should see our valuation worth £140m or double the initial cost of investment. This will be game changing for Chrysalis as the NAV will exceed £1.50 and crucially the CAP will kick in with £100m of shareholder returns triggered whilst holding £60m of buffer. The discount to NAV will then naturally close rapidly and i will wonder why i didn't buy more.... |
I'd have PSH and CHRY as the 2 trusts I'm most confident in right now. But I don't share NAV concerns here: the portfolio is so concentrated that as long as the top 4 are roughly right you can be confident |
Look at the share price of AFRM, which is the closest peer to Klarna. Look at the growth figures at Starling. I'd be surprised if the NAV isn't very conservative but we need 1 or 2 IPOs to verify that. |
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