Christie Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 23/11/2005 11:18

MM'S still paying 119p for 10K online and the chart has just made a very horny breakout too.

Must be some news coming somewhere imo.

A bid? Volume has increased massively since July.

CR

[ddahj] 23/11/2005 08:49

These shares were over £2 in 1999

[cockneyrebel] 22/11/2005 17:35

climbing nicely - don't look like the order has been filled as MM's were buying so many on line at 116p late in the day.

Breakout tomorrow? Gone through recent high today, looks like an assult on Feb 05 high is imminent and then the Feb 04 all time high at 130p I'd say.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 22/11/2005 15:46

mm'S buying 37K online and paying 116p - there is a big buyer around I tell you.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 22/11/2005 15:06

moving up - mm's publishing 11K sell live - want you to big sells yet still not published my 3K add.

Playing games to fill a large buy imo

CR

[cockneyrebel] 22/11/2005 12:11

A buy of 8.8K at 116p - why would someone be that keen?

End of year thrading statement coming perhaps?

I just bought 3K more and they haven't published the trade either but published an 11K sell (over 5 times the NMS) live.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 15/11/2005 15:04

Adree they should be a lot higher.

The chart looks exciting too - broke through the previous high, if they go through 116p thet are likely to race away imo.

CR

[ddahj] 15/11/2005 14:50

Edmund,
Thanks for your reply.
In retrospect I agree that the directors are unlikely to do an MBO. The company is less likely to be bought out which slightly depresses the value, (say 20%), of the shares/company but the added security of the directors having such a large stake probably increases, (say 10%), the value of the shares.
Although the last day of trading on the main exchange was 11/11/05, I believe that anyone who has their shares in an ISA has a further month to sell or move them. So I think there will still be a chance to acquire quantities of these shares if owners sell from their ISAs.
Due to the advantageous tax position of AIM it is unlikely that companies transferring from the main market to AIM would make any favourable announcements until the company is settled into the AIM market.
I agree that the shares are on a PE of around six. In my opinion the shares should be twice the price.
David

[edmundshaw] 09/11/2005 16:03

ddahj (10th Aug): "My main concern is that the directors own most of the company. I assume if they or someone else wanted to buy the company they would be able to acquire it for a low price on a majority vote. Also they have not increased the dividend in line with profits."

I agree with the last point, and imagine that John Lee would agree as he's keen on his dividends (as am I).

I cannot see any reason, though, for a move to AIM prior to a MBO, so am reassured on that front.

Last day of trading on the main exchange today so any dip on ISA/PEP sell-outs SHOULD be complete today (except by ignorance, but I shall ignore ignorant investors!).


I topped up again today, as I see the underlying established business seems to be trading on a PER of around 6. Here are some carefully selected excerpts from the interims, comments in [] mine:

"Strong performance at established operations with operating profit of
£4.4 million (2004: £3.1 million)".
"[group] profit before income tax: £2,144k"
"Fully diluted [EPS] 5.36p" [for the half]

"During the first half of 2005, Christie + Co incurred losses of #1.3 million
from continuing European and UK expansion and development. New operational
bases were opened in Epsom and Enfield in the UK and in May 2005 we opened a new
office in Madrid. We recognise that the gestation periods of these operations
and the speed at which they will reach profitability will vary."

" West London Estates successfully integrated into Pinders

VcsTimeless and Wincor Nixdorf sign accord for development
of EPoS solution for non-food retailers

Important business wins in stocktaking business including
Argos and Boots" [wins like this cost money to achieve, of course]

"Philip Gwyn, Chairman, commented: ... I believe ... we are
well positioned for further progress during 2005." [and 2006?!]

So, half the profit goes to non-established business losses; but over half of that is done and dusted as continuing expansion & development. Also, WLE should add to the bottom line in 2006. However, the management's focus on expansion seems undiminished, so we may not see big EPS improvements as they continue to spend profits on expansion. As long as they release SOME of this profit in the form of increased dividends, at least in 2006, this is not a worry to me.

[edmundshaw] 07/11/2005 16:14

Due a rise, sure, but might fall first.

Director buys instil confidence, I intend to add on the dips...

[cockneyrebel] 07/11/2005 13:05

Due a rise and a breakout imo - have you seen the large volume in this stock since Sep1 ? Directors might know something, hence their buying imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 31/10/2005 09:46

Seems a bit active this morning - only a small roll over showing.
Looks like it's going to have another go at that recent high again imo.

CR

[wjccghcc] 24/10/2005 16:30

Totally agree they're cheap CR. I just wanted to pass on my impressions of meeting them - albeit a while ago now. Hopefully things are changing among mgmt there and if so you will be handsomely rewarded. Don't have a position and not planning to take one. Good luck with it.

[cockneyrebel] 24/10/2005 16:14

2 months from the year end and directors are buying WJCC - decent buys from two directors. When in Rome, do as the Romans imo.

"During the first half of 2005, Christie + Co incurred losses of £1.3 million from continuing European and UK expansion and development. New operational bases were opened in Epsom and Enfield in the UK and in May 2005 we opened a new office in Madrid. We recognise that the gestation periods of these operations and the speed at which they will reach profitability will vary. Christie + Co's UK revenue rose 14% compared to the first half of 2004." As these losses reduce, profits rise - I think they only have to duplicate H1 to be on a PE of 10. Losses down from Europe and other divisions growing earning - I think 12p eps could be on the cards this year. A move to AIM and a bit more growth next year and the eps may well be 15 and the forward PE 7 with that year 2 months from starting.

Looks a limited downside, good upside to me.

CR

[wjccghcc] 24/10/2005 15:21

Well, turnover is up mainly due to acquisitions and operating profit has risen a grand total of 50% (including the acquisitions) since 2000. Not hugely impressive if you ask me. Agreed they have incurred some losses in the European expansion which should hopefully start paying off soon.

[ddahj] 24/10/2005 14:20

The turnover has increased about 40% of the last four years and profits by 300%. The directors own 60% of the company. I can't see why the shares are not double the present value?

[wjccghcc] 24/10/2005 12:12

I'd be a bit careful with these CR. I've followed them for a few years and even went to an AGM. Management were fine but didn't strike me as being particularly dynamic. Led me to put them in the promises alot but never really delivers camp (a bit like ALN). Maybe the move to AIM is a sign of the leopard changing it's spots ... Here's hoping for you.

[cockneyrebel] 24/10/2005 11:59

I just got another 5K if punters are giving them away today

CR

[cockneyrebel] 22/10/2005 09:26

10th November is the day they start trading on AIM.

CR

[robcoo] 22/10/2005 08:09

Does anyone know when the Company is moving to AIM?

[cockneyrebel] 19/10/2005 12:56

Director buying again today - indicator of a true bargain?

CR

[cockneyrebel] 17/10/2005 12:55

A breakout? Looks like it.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 17/10/2005 12:31

moving up more today.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 15/10/2005 11:27

No mention of yesterday's director buys here. Pretty decent buys by two directors both increasing their holding significantly and come 10 weeks from the year end

I picked up a few yesterday on that. PE looks low and if the loss making sise is reducing losses swiftly and the profitable side still growing profits at a decent clip then H2 and next year could be much improved.

I dare say the proposed move to AIM here has held the stock back a tad but these moves to AIM are positive in the longer run could add a lot to the eps next year especially if the loss making side is improving pretty swiftly - the company suggests so in the interims imo - director buys seem to confirm that for me.

5.3p eps in H1, a bit of improvement in H2 (as the company suggests) and you have 12p eps for the year - PE 9 for this year?

Forward PE might be considerably lower. 3% yield on top - looks pretty cheap to me.

CR