Choicesuk Share Discussion Threads

[goonertone] 17/11/2006 13:43

Lunch time so a few thoughts that I have been mulling over

As discussed on here with JTC I note on the website that the online DVD rental link to Lovefilms has gone so his comments stand that no great relationship is left. The site has been updated now and the music section is up and running.
As I have said before I have my reservations about music CD's but if managed correctly can contribute to profit. A colleague here at work said that the store near here had a music section put in a couple of months ago.

We have lost 17 loss making stores and added 26 new managed sites. Turnover therefore should hold up but with an increase in margins.

£3 million in savings to come in year.

JTC stated from the AGM's that £25m approx at 8-10% margin would flow from Andromeda thats £2mill plus with minimal additional costs.

AGM also stated we had passed 8000 locals. Based on previous years this gives £22k per site or £1.75 million profit with no more sites or uplift from games/music.

The only question mark is borrowings/cash generation. The music side had me worried for a while but if the music part was already up and running in stores 2 months ago then the cost of the stock build up was already included when the AGM statement said "our cash position being significantly better than budgeted"

Heres hoping for a Merry Christmas.

GT

[goonertone] 17/11/2006 08:32

Bletherer

as you say can go up and down on what appears to be nothing, though two days of 30k trades is unusual of late for CHUK.

No shares available. Online limit of 500 shares.

must admit my gut feeling over the last couple of weeks was that it was being dragged down to fill an order, but no proof, as yet.Still at historically low levels so might think about the top up I've been musing over for the last week or so.

GT

[bletherer] 16/11/2006 15:19

lol - 50p was the low for the old HET, so although it doesn't show up on this chart it was an obvious place for a technical bounce. As we all know this stock is very tightly held so it doesn't take much buying - or selling - to generate impressive-looking moves in the share price

Maybe some of the recent selling is due to people recalling what happened a year ago when the stock crashed after a poor trading statement. Anyone know if they are likely to issue a statement this year (it was end of November last year, I think)? If so I very much hope it does not show a relapse.

[martinc] 15/11/2006 13:46

Seems to be falling off a cliff now.. oh dear. No sign of it levelling off.

[goonertone] 07/11/2006 18:19

Sporty

What happened to "that was my last post"?

GT

[sporticus] 07/11/2006 16:50

Anyone got a spare paddle?

[jtcod] 03/11/2006 12:35

The 2 brokers have not bothered to relook at their figures jimtad. They will probably realise they missed a great buy recommendation come January.

[jimtad] 03/11/2006 10:18

Why is chucky not moving , AMU did,why not chucky?

[steveb3] 03/11/2006 10:15

JT

Many thanks for your thoughts.

SB

[jtcod] 03/11/2006 09:54

Hi Steve
LEAD are on a P/E of about 12 for this year (too high an entry point imo and definitely not a 'value investment' by Ben Graham standards). They are, as you say, growing but it's now getting eaten up in higher taxes and more importantantly, dilution from having to come back to the market for more cash to expand.

Though I accept it may be a failing on my part, I don't see any 'visibility on earnings' past 6-8 months for any business supplying networks. Someone comes along with a better product at a better price and their order book just drops of the end of a cliff imo. There is just no ringfence at all.

Sorry Steve, Lead is not for me I'm afraid.

[steveb3] 02/11/2006 21:43

Thanks JT

Added a further 7K yesterday @63.5p.

o/t - As a value investor, would be very interested to know your thoughts on Leadcom (Lead). With CAG of 40%+ since 2003, excellent future earnings visibility, dividend payment etc, the market(to me) seems to be placing a low valuation on the stock, when considering the progress made since IPO and future propects.


SB

[jtcod] 31/10/2006 00:58

Welcome aboard Steve

[steveb3] 30/10/2006 15:57

Dipped a toe in today with 18k (12K+ 6K, both @64.3p).

Turnaround prospects beginning to look compelling. IMO

[goonertone] 24/10/2006 13:34

I couldn't really miss it as it seemed to be everyones hot stock last month.

Bit to much of a frenzy about it at the moment, to much good news to soon etc etc. Will keep an eye for an entry point but not desperate to get in at these levels.

Gt

[jtcod] 24/10/2006 13:13

O/T
Did you have a look at SOLA at all gt?

Thought it may have been your type of stock. Particularly with such good earnings visibility.

[goonertone] 24/10/2006 12:18

JT

Everyone seems to be chasing round the hottest new things these days and the art of investing has dissapeared somewhat. The numbers of dodgy aim stocks that have sprung a suprise over the last year or so hasn't helped with companys at this valuation level as there is no institutional support.

It just means you have to hold your nerve and once the story starts to unfold then each new type of investor comes along and the recovery story ramps up. Its just staying in long enough to reach the bottom of the ramp.

AMU seems to have got there and is starting the second leg of its journey and with several more news items to come over the next couple of months to help it along. CHUK's journey should start with the trading update either in January or a pre xmas one in mid December.

GT

[jtcod] 24/10/2006 12:04

It never ceases to amaze me how investors fail to grasp the potential of these investments. Companies like CHUK and AMU are classic Ben Graham stocks and the nearest thing to a racing certainty you're going to find on the stock market.

With such low valuations against this years projected earnings, all the management need to do is maintain those earnings, which is hardly a problem, (given each has made significant savings on overheads during the last 12 months).

If the price doesn't double over the next 12-15mths, the managements will take them out when the debt is reduced. If the management didn't do that, a competitor would. Debt levels are the key. Once debt drops to around 3-4m, if the share price is'nt higher, the company is in play for a bid. Either way, you gets your profit. It's that simple imo.

As ever all IMHO.
JT

[goonertone] 13/10/2006 00:00

Possibly the strangest RNS I have ever seen. Must have cost us more than the shares purchased. However strangely it is reassuring despite the size. Putting £5000 or £50000 of your own money on something is one thing but telling people you know and will see week after week to buy even a small amount is something that makes me strangely confident that christmas orders ares progressing well.

GT

[goonertone] 02/10/2006 10:20

MM's Still short on the shares front limits this morning are currently 10000 @ 67.6 to sell and 1500 @ 70 to buy.

GT

[sven2006] 02/10/2006 08:48

JTCOD - still in SOLA?

[jtcod] 01/10/2006 13:33

Maybe I misunderstood what they were saying GT. That was my understanding of the reply.

[goonertone] 01/10/2006 09:52

JTC

Thanks for the update. If thats the case why do we still have Lovefilm as our DVD rental partner on the website?

GT