Choicesuk Share Discussion Threads

[lennox_lnx_multibagg] 12/2/2007 00:18

LENNOX IS SET TO ERUPT..PLEASE REVIEW THIS COMPANY

FACT: MARKET CAP.ONLY 0.3 MILLION.
FACT: SHARES IN ISSUE ONLY 24 MILLION.
FACT: OVERHANG NEARLY GONE. BUY LIMIT LAST WEEK WAS 500,000 @1.6P NOW ONLY 75000K @ 1.6P.
FACT: SELL LIMITED WAS 50,000 @ 1.09P AT THE START OF THE WEEK, NOW 250,000 @ 1.09P. MMS WANT CHEAP STOCK.
What does this mean? A few buys LNX will explode.

Last RNS
Lennox to carry out full review in difficult trading conditions; MD retires

FACT. The review is expected to be completed in early March.

FACT ANYTHING SLIGHTLY POSITIVE LNX WILL ERUPT.

PROJECTIONS ANYWERE FROM 200%-10000%

FACT. 500,000 SHARES BOUGHT AT A MID PRICE OF 1.5P IN THE LAST FORTNIGHT, A LOT FOR LNX.

OPINION: PRICE BEING HELD BACK AS BUYER ACCUMULATES.

OPINION: IF TRUE THEN IT REFUTES THE NOTION THAT LNX ARE GOING BUST.

OPINION: EVEN IF THEY ARE, WHAT A CHEAP SHELL TO GET YOURSELF LISTED ON AIM.

OPINION: BY APRIL LNX WILL BE 15P-60P


OPINION LNX ARE THE BEST BUY ON AIM TODAY FOR MULTIBAGGER REWARDS.

[goonertone] 11/2/2007 14:38

Steve

Can you check back on your figures as there are a couple of things need clarifying that I am not 100% sure off.

Firstly the figures are misleading at first glance as the first line is for a non existent period which is still there because a) the software cant or hasn't got rid off it or b) it is left in for comparison.

Either way it makes no sense as according to that they estimate the company will make nearly £4m in june and july.

This leads us with estimates of 7.65 for the extended period to July 07 rising to 18.3 in 08.

Secondly these are I believe consensus figures. From what I can see the first lot were Seymour Pierce on their own and the newest lot take into account Teather and Greenwood. If thats right and Seymour Pierce havent changed their figures then to come to a consensus of 7.65 T & E must have a forecast for July 07 of 11.7.

Anyone with any thoughts, comments or access to Teather and Greenwood or knowledge of any T & E brokers note?

GT

[steveb3] 11/2/2007 09:18

Digital Look - now showing revised broker forecasts for 2007.

Forecasts
Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-May-07 153.00 (1.80) (1.45)p n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0%
31-Jul-07 159.50 2.00 7.65p 6.1 n/a n/a 1.75p 3.7%
31-Jul-08 166.00 5.10 18.30p 2.5 0.0 +139% 4.00p 8.4%

ChoicesUK forecasts
Covering analysts: Seymour Pierce, Teather & Greenwood

[woodcutter] 07/2/2007 15:48

not only are you good with numbers but quite inventive too!

but i'm still sitting on the sidelines - for now

[jtcod] 07/2/2007 14:02

As I recall WC, the only Freeholds were valued at £1.5m couple of years ago. If they were sold for £1.75m now that would account for 20 % of the market Cap.

I don't know what the industry will do to change that attitude but I haven't heard of anyone who has the means to rip playstation games and PS2 has been out 6yrs now. Which is probably why games are holding their margins.

I know what I would be looking at if I were a music publisher. That would be strap line audio advertising litterally mixed into the opening of each track. To last a maximum of 5 seconds. That way, you rip the track but there is no way of extracating the advertising. Advertisers would benefit from ripping. The more the merrier. The publisher, retailer and distributor would sell for cost and take a cut of the advertising revenue. If the revenue stream is good enough and it can be linked to production targets, they could give it away. This doesn't get past old CD's that can be ripped but would put a foundation under anything new for now on.

It may sound crazy but I know of no better medium that identify's marketable population sectors than music. If you analyse current TV advertising, the choice of music is carefully chosen to appeal to the target market.

I just think it would be better to run with it than fight it, at least until new formats with good encryption become mainstream. PS3 and Xbox 360 should really have dropped backward compatibility with all things CD imo. Phase it out.

[woodcutter] 07/2/2007 13:25

JT No doubt you are right about the shops, they have to go. Do they own them or are they leased?

If they own them what is there property valuation and when was it last valued do you know? What could you expect if sold?

I think in the the short term (12 months)there is probably upside particularly with the release of PS3.

My biggest concern is long term, (i'm not a short term investor)i only have to watch my lad and his mates and a whole generation of people are growing up listeneing to music (for free) and "burning" their own albums or just copying to mp3 and then deleting and re copying when they've had enough.

There will always be someone on the web who'll will provide these games, dvd's etc and there will always be those who will seek them out. These kids are growing up with a why pay for it when i can get it for free attitutde.

How do you change this mind set?

You are more detailed than me on the numbers, but whilst it might look good value this has to be taken against the background of this sector particularly the high street business, you are very persuasive with your analysis which i respect but i think i'll just watch for a while.

[jtcod] 06/2/2007 18:50

Woodcutter
This subject has been debated at length and yes I agree that music in particular is going through a sea change. However, CHUK are driving Games and DVD's mainly these days and should be entering the Blueray/HD-DVD market also I believe (which is better protected from rippers at the moment).

The shops are a problem because of the sheer cost of running them. HMV are finding this out also, as you have pointed out.

In the last RNS the management said:
"Management is considering a strategic plan to ensure the Retail division,
ChoicesUK stores, will not detract from the value and success of other Company
activities."

That sounds to me like they intend to offload the shops and concentrate on the primary business of ChoicesLocal.

If they do, I estimate that the rest of the business is delivering normalised EPS of 13p 'and growing'. With debt levels dropping fairly rapidly (imo), the management will soon have the option to either:
a) pay a 10 % dividend to drive the share price
b) use cashflow to buy receivership opportunities as they did with andromeda or
c) Buy the company off the market at a premium.

The overall market will shrink and the capitalist system has a way of righting imbalances but profit is profit and the remaining core business will have a future. Those who are still standing in the end, will share the cake (however the future designs it). What is more, when the competition is reduced you will see margins harden, which will have a profound affect on CHUK's and others profit. You could say that those that are making a profit are squeezing the competition out of the market.

CHUK will definately be one of those left standing imo and eventually a beneficiary of all this misery. All we are seeing is progress and the culling of the weak. Todays share price is a gift imo.

As ever all IMHO and DYOR
JT

[woodcutter] 06/2/2007 17:54

JT I noticed you are in gng today, i hope you don't mind i picked up your thread to here from your profile and the gng bb. Rivaldo has done a great job there and i feel it should do very nicely.

I read your notes with interest i wouldn't normally buy this type of stock myself i usually stay clear of retailers, i think it could be a recovery play, but taking aside the numbers, i have some reservations, see below.

I don't like to be negative but i would be concerned at the number of businesses like this on the high street that are struggling HMV etc and music zone recently called in the administrators.

I have a twelve year old and he downloads music and all sorts of stuff for free, as you'd expect so do all his mates.

This sector seems to be going through a massive transformation.

I'd feel happier as an investor if it were a pure internet play.

I apologise up front i haven't had time to read all the news and threads but would appreciate your thoughts.

[steveb3] 29/1/2007 23:36

Digital Look - showing revised broker turnover, profit/loss and EPS forecasts.

31-May-07 154.00 (1.50) 4.50p 11.0 n/a -35% n/a 0.0%
31-Jul-07 162.00 1.00 3.60p 13.8 n/a -20% 1.00p 2.0%
31-Jul-08 166.00 5.10 18.30p 2.7 0.0 +408% 4.00p 8.1%

[jtcod] 28/1/2007 09:37

That's 2 weeks earlier than I had pencilled in.

Lets say the average PS3 goes out the door with 2 games and 2 Blue Ray movies.

8,000-10,000 sales in the first month (a decent chunk of which will already be on pre-order)and that would provide £4-5m cashflow for the retail division from PS3 alone in April.

That should at least make it easier to offload the shops, even if it's just for £1. Although our land and property is showing at £1.5m (valued a couple of years back.) If they are Freehold 'shops' then we could sell them to raise cash or retain them for rental income. The first option would be the obvious and most desireable one.

This would leave ChoicesUKLocal, ChoicesUKDirect and Mosaic earning Approx. EPS 13p or more for 7/2007 and growing into 2008. They earned 11.6p net of tax and interest in 2006. With the bumper Christmas and the big motorway service station contract, they must be beyond 13p by eoy.

As ever all IMHO and DYOR
JT

[steveb3] 27/1/2007 21:07

Sony has finally announced the UK launch of their flagship next-generation games console, the Playstation 3.

Since the launch of the Playstation 2, gamers have been made to wait for 6 years in anticipation of Sony's gaming trilogy finally becoming complete. Today Sony has announced the gruelling wait will end on March 23, the day of the European launch. Sony's Playstation 3 console will appear on shelves throughout the UK, priced £425. The European launch will also be joined by thirty new games covering a variety of genres. Sony has admitted problems with the Blu-ray technology being featured in the next-generation console, and this has been used as an explanation for the delayed European launch. The Playstation 3 has been available in Japan and the US since November. Sony's launch delays have caused a loss in terms of recent festive competition retailing against Nintendo's much reported Wii, however according to gaming experts 'the Playstation 3 is the hottest gaming system since the PS2', so sales should soon be soaring.

[jtcod] 26/1/2007 16:49

Couldn't resist buying some more today but only got a fraction of my order.

[masurenguy] 26/1/2007 01:03

Michael - here is the reference to Armageddon

[michaelmouse] 25/1/2007 21:06

Good old Mr. Market now believes that ChoicesUK is worth less than 3.5 weeks sales. Historic p/e (past 5 years) about 3.

Just read the trading statement again since I think I must have missed the Armageddon reference. Nope can't find it. Probably just me though.

Cheers.
Michael.

[bruce the goldfish] 25/1/2007 15:32

Thanks Fordtin,

But why is Union (or PG by name) not mentioned in the Substantial Shareholdings of the company in the Annual Report given he held c. 17% of the equity at the last year-end?

Cheers

BTG

[bruce the goldfish] 25/1/2007 14:01

Hi all, I have been watching with interest the situation unfolding at Choices and must admit I think there has been some great discussion and content on this thread.

I do have a query though that hopefully someone could help me with. I noted from the 2006 Annual Report the substantial holdings in the company, but since they were announced there were a couple of Holding Notifications re: PG increasing his holding in the company. However, I could find no mention of his intial stake in the company pre these announcements. The purchases themselves do not amount to the total holding disclosed. Could anyone possibly clarify who are the substantial shareholders in the company at this point in time and what are their respective % holdings?

Thanks in advance

BTG

[steveb3] 25/1/2007 12:57

Digital Look - brokers have downgraded profit and EPS forecasts and dissapointingly now rate it as a sell.


31-May-07 154.00 (1.50) 4.50p 11.7 n/a -35% n/a 0.0%
31-May-08 162.00 1.00 3.60p 14.6 n/a -20% 1.00p 1.9%
31-May-09 166.00 5.10 18.30p 2.9 0.0 +408% 4.00p 7.6%

[stegrego] 24/1/2007 13:01

Fordtin - one swallow does not a summer make....

Choices are usually worse on price than Play.com, CD-Wow, Amazon etc - this is a cut-throat business and Choices dont have the pricing power to compete IMO.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 24/1/2007 12:35

I´m in two minds about CHUK.

Last year Local and the internet business made an operating profit of 3.5m between them. It´s the stores that are the problem.

The company has announced that they are going to do something to stop the stores from dragging the rest of the group down, will they be able to sell it, or perhaps the can demerge it and leave the two parts of the business as seperate listed companies.

Without the losses of the stores the group would be on a low multiple of historic operating profit.

I´m not sure about the future though. If you´re going to be a success selling cd´s and dvd´s online then I think you´ve either got to be great on price or great on selection and choices don´t really seem to be either. there´s no point visiting their website if you know they´re going to be beaten by Amazon and HMV (now that they´ve got their pricing right).

Worth watching, but i´m not sure I can see a good reason to buy, not yet anyway.

[steve133] 24/1/2007 09:01

if its that good it will go up without us tango.boilandgas i noticed this morning that the website was down but they did tell me in email that they would be updating shortly so maybe thats the case.