-3x Short China Discussion Threads

[dreggspicker] 22/6/2010 22:07

clueless B ; more like. Do they get paid for that tripe?

[stegrego] 22/6/2010 21:59

I wish!

Hoodless B

China Shoto (CHNS, 337.5p, £78.79m) AGM statement has warned that profits are down 15% in the first 5 months of the year due to lower infrastructure spend from the Chinese telecom operators as well as seeing increased overseas competition. Profit forecasts should slip further as the Yuan is rebased, limiting the competitiveness of Chinese manufactured products. Worst case would be profits around £11m – EPS of 40.8p, putting the group on an 8.3 prospective, we can see further weakness towards the 7.5x – a price target of 306p, just sufficient to SELL.

[elban] 22/6/2010 17:17

jak1,

I don't think that this is another RCG.
We were forewarned that earnings would be weaker - so at least the management seem to be open & honest with shareholders.

[mattjos] 22/6/2010 17:15

mm .. well that wasn't quite to plan today!

However, still holding profitably & in the market for some more should we see the price being with a 1
The news has bought a flurry of ill-informed posts here today from folk i've not seen here before today.

[rajauk] 22/6/2010 17:07

how mid is mid point of the spread is 231 which was actually the price being quoted at the time.

[toposstiger] 22/6/2010 17:02

Interceptor2 - how is 231 at the top end of a 225-237 spread?

[jak1] 22/6/2010 16:53

RCG now this, I'll never go near a Chinese stock again...

[interceptor2] 22/6/2010 16:50

Respect to Rivaldo who called this very well.

I did sell over half my holding just before the close, and the encouraging thing is that I received 231p which was top end of spread 225 - 237. Hopefully this bodes well for tomorrow. Shame to have to take a loss, but I figure there are companies with stronger outlooks at this time where I would be happier to hold.

But I think it is worth holding the smaller balance in chns.

Regards ic2.......

[soundbuy] 22/6/2010 16:14

Yep, delayed buys in pipeline I'd imagine.

[arty] 22/6/2010 16:05

Online limits now even more extreme, max buy 500 shares, max sell 7500 shares (idealing)

[martylangan] 22/6/2010 14:21

..at least we will get more shares for our money when the dividend comes through!

[liyangnano] 22/6/2010 13:05

would you mind telling me any shareholding information about this company so far? thanks

[arty] 22/6/2010 11:52

The online buying limits on idealing don't seem to suggest the imminent demise of the company as the doomsters may have you believe.Buy max 1000, sell max 5000.

[wjccghcc] 22/6/2010 11:28

Actually, I don't think cash was flattered by "bumping payables". Working capital changes for 2009 were all of -800k in the cashflow statement which for a 16% increase in sales is pretty good. The increase in payables matched the increase in receivables/inventories as you'd expect.

[yump] 22/6/2010 11:22

Tell you what, sad little sadistic freaks, as you've got nothing better to do, why don't you prepare a list of all the worst possible things that could go wrong. Then you can just repeatedly cut and paste it and save your brainache. You could even blog about it - I'm sure Google would see it as highly original and rank it on page 1.

CHNS is only unreliable in the sense that:

(a) its marginally more difficult as a UK investor to know exactly what is going on with any share overseas compared to a UK share. Not because they are up to something, but because you can't get information about the market that you might otherwise want and might be in the public domain.

(b) any 'leaks' of knowledge of trouble ahead will be limited to only a handful of UK investors.

So share price movements have more significance than usual and that drop off after results should have been a warning. One should therefore commit investments accordingly and ignore 'rationalisations' of share price drops based on supposition. Same as ignoring supposition from the doom and gloom mongers.

They have no track record of prediction. Just a track record of cloned posts.

[pro_s2009] 22/6/2010 11:07

How do you know what the cash situation is like now ? You only know what is was like Dec 31st, and indeed they bumped up the trade payables to make that cash "appear".

You might be in for a further surprise when it comes to cash levels at the next results........

[rajauk] 22/6/2010 11:03

Well didn't see this coming, disappointed but with cash of around 40 million equal to about 180p/share the current valuation is not very demanding plus there is a possibility of hkex listing which could help the price. As long as they are not eating up.that cashpile this could recover somewhat.
Raja

[pro_s2009] 22/6/2010 10:24

This post on the 28th April over at III after the results, how many people took notice......


28-04-10 Re: Outlook has challenges malj1 2

It sure does.

3 very big observations/questions:

CS t/o plateaued h2. Given the a/c quotes in £, but business originates in remnimbi which is pegged to the $, underlying constant currency t/o is already falling markedly;

Batteries are essentially a commodity product. CS claims its g/m rose from 26.4% in 08 to 32% in 09. This occured wholly in h2 where operating margin rose from ca 7.7% h2 08 to ca 16.5% h2 09!!!!! This is because the a/c show a dramatic fall in the cost of stock h2 09 - no explanation how this was achieved. No business I know can raise its operating margin +9% in 6 months;

Foreign business fell 2/3rd.

These a/c are a conjuring trick, not a business.

[jwe] 22/6/2010 09:55

SB-yes i agree a p/e of 4 is likely,given purely how the market percieves Chinese shares.I will be a buyer at that level

[sir brainy] 22/6/2010 09:52

Note I put inverted commas around 'unreliable China share' - indicating that is what IMV the mkt will think, not what I think.

Therein will come the opportunity.

[pro_s2009] 22/6/2010 09:32

Sir Brainy, its a miracle, perhaps for once I agree with one of your posts.....

Certainly more bad news to come IMO.

[sir brainy] 22/6/2010 09:22

IMV they'll test 3-3.5x because 'unreliable China share' gone ex growth for the foreseeable future - and the big unknown is E.

That would mean 120p-175p.