China Biodiesel Share Discussion Threads

[qipincha] 05/8/2009 15:03

I will prefer to have tree shake now rather than late
This is the good way to get some fresh blood in and get the share liquid

[campomar2] 05/8/2009 14:59

aim11: Each to their own, but theres no way this was worth £50million during the IPO. Take a look back then, the market was very very frothy and a lot of IPO's crashed within months; see SKR as another example. I still maintain this has gone far enough right now, we need to see the results to get a handle as to how trading is but I think people are getting ahead of themselves.

[aim11] 05/8/2009 13:36

imho this stock has the potential to go all the way back up again. it went from over 100 to 3 on a bad year when it STILL made £1mn net profit adjusting for write downs of stock. its got very little debt. the govt is very much behind it. the new facility is open on time and once again up and running. the chinese economy is recovering. why can't it go back up towards where it was before last year's problems? its not like its at any risk of going bust or the long term potential is any worse or the expansion didn't happen. i think it'll go to 50p+ again which would be mid to high single digit on a recovery eps figure. i won't be selling my shares before then and went long at 8p. all imho.

[duncancosgrove] 05/8/2009 13:25

One man's mistake is another man's take. I got in at 6p only 2 weeks ago, so this has to be my best ever move during my short forray into the world of shares.

i set myself a target of 20p short term, but will need to revise that i think. Anyone care to share their 3 month and 6 month targets on this?

i'm not sure if it's really tradeable either, in terms of calling the peaks and buying on the dips.

[campomar2] 05/8/2009 13:13

How could utilico trust have been so stupid to sell 8% of this company at 5p. Gross incompetence.

[aim11] 05/8/2009 12:42

without any major selling coming through then steady buying will see these huge rises and big shakes that dont scare enough people so next 50k of buys drives it up again another 20% no problem. there are only 2 market makers on this stock and there's no liquidity, so why can't it go up just like it came down? question is at what price will any major holder exit? there was big clumsy institutional selling near the lows, that's why it got down to sub 10p in the first place as far as i can tell by charting the stock vs their exit rns statements. the cfo buying ahead of close period made this a no brainer as far as i was concerned - i saw some people say oh its only 70k shares or whatever, but she's only paid 20k a year :)

[mikeja] 05/8/2009 12:24

Thinking about production this yr,it was 8000 tns Q1,with opening of new plant,maybe 10000tns Q2 and say 12000 and 14000 for last 2 qtrs.Total 44k tns for yr.They might make say $80pt,given excess value of their product,so maybe
$3.5m.pretax,say $3m after tax,£1.8m.Add in £3m from gov sub and you have £4.8m,eps of 10.5p ashare,with much more to come for 2010.
Totally hypothetical,I agree,but it indicates the potential.

[sos100] 05/8/2009 12:03

wheres ayesha gone?

all the deramping yesterday really worked on this one!

[mikeja] 05/8/2009 11:57

ttb,totally agree

[taurusthebear] 05/8/2009 11:49

Well, I interpret today's extreme fluctuation in price as a violent tree shake. As I wasn't even online when it went to 13-14p, I didn't lose any sleep over it. Which is something people who look at ADVFN share prices every second of every day could learn: if you don't back off the market and relax, you stand to miss the wood for the trees!

40p is my lowest sell price. :0)

[qipincha] 05/8/2009 11:17

very happy with the profit I am making so far...
great fun....

[campomar2] 05/8/2009 11:13

MIkeja: Thanks for that. I think you are correct. Good luck and enjoy spending your profits!

[campomar2] 05/8/2009 11:08

Market makers playing a very canny game with this one. 3p spread, sometimes 4p and sharp price movements on small trades, noone is going to make money from EVO 's thats for sure.

[campomar2] 05/8/2009 11:06

Robandkeery: You are so right. Never take flak for taking profits. The great thing about this board is the views on both sides, no punping or dumping just an adult exchange of views. What a shame other boards couldnt be like this one.

[qipincha] 05/8/2009 10:53

want to grab more when it reach 15p!
however, no mm sales!

[robandkerry] 05/8/2009 10:40

risk1 - 5 Aug'09 - 08:53 - 780 of 781


rob&kerry

what a massive mistake you have just made

I wouldnt say its a massive mistake. I am happy with my profit. Plus I have held onto a few to hedge my bets. And I will add if it falls. :)

A massive mistake would be to watch the price go up and not sell, and then watch it fall right back to 6p. Which is where I got in. There is no point in buying shares if you are not going to sell them and realise profit. Its very rare you can get in at the bottom and get out at the top, so if you consistently make money from the middle ground, and you are happy with what you have made, then thats fine by me.

[duncancosgrove] 05/8/2009 10:22

oops.. wobble down to 13p! :)

[risk1] 05/8/2009 08:53

rob&kerry

what a massive mistake you have just made

[jailbird] 05/8/2009 08:46

big jump up

[jailbird] 05/8/2009 08:42

tight spread to encourage trades.

i see they offering me mid-price for my shares!!

looking for stock again

[mikeja] 05/8/2009 08:39

Campo,refer you to co's statement,"The Group...is entitled to financial rewards of which amount is determined by Government authorities by reference either to production capacity the Group has or to the volume of biodiesel produced nd sold".The increase in capacity would therefore seem to justify he increase in grant.Q1 is not one off andthis will increase as production increases.

[aim11] 05/8/2009 08:24

i read around the topic of subsidies a bit and it seems like they are at least partly related to output. i personally think subsidies probably should have a lower p/e attached to them than outright earnings ex govt handouts but i dont believe mkt will see it that way necessarily. on the basis of output i would imagine 2m vs 1.8 last yr may be too low but we'll see i guess. i dont have a big position here any way, a bit over 100k shares

[campomar2] 05/8/2009 08:17

Aim11:

Yes you are right but I read that as a one off item maybe I'm wrong. In total last year they received approx £1.8 million so I have pencilled in £2 million for this full year.

[campomar2] 05/8/2009 08:13

RobandKerry:

Very wise. A profit is only a profit once cash is in the bank. Its all well and good looking at the SP, but with only effectively one Market maker and a lot of speculative investors in this now when the tide turns it will be difficult to get out at a reasonable price.

[aim11] 05/8/2009 08:10

didnt they get 800k in total rebates and subsidies in q1?