China Biodiesel Share Discussion Threads

[campomar2] 04/8/2009 15:47

Still hold 40,000 so that wouldnt make sense would it?
tim00's idea is very good, maybe I will do just that..they are certainly running for nothing with the wedge ive made on these!

[tim00] 04/8/2009 15:43

It's true the share is highly illiquid, but here's a novel idea....how about just holding the shares indefinitely, benefiting from the strong growth of the Chinese economy and picking up a steadily rising dividend that justifies a steadily rising share price back to its IPO level. With strong environmental credentials and government support, and few peers in the whole of China, it has excellent long term growth prospects.

[robandkerry] 04/8/2009 15:36

Campomar2. Stop trying to talk the price down so you can buy back in you little monkey.

[risk1] 04/8/2009 15:26

shhh too busy again

[campomar2] 04/8/2009 14:28

I agree its too low a rating. But thats what it is for the sector. I think maybe a P/E of 5 would be more realsitic - which would mean 15p is fair value for this.

[aim11] 04/8/2009 14:02

2x is a ridiculous p/e any way - this is the rating given to all chinese stuff at the bottom. nothing to say why this rating wont improve towards 5x...personally think 10x is too racy for this stuff but 2x way too conservative esp for those companies that have and are expanding quite fast

[campomar2] 04/8/2009 13:52

Im not looking back, just being realistic. £3million profits is just not feasible they only were at 8000 tonnes output in the last update.

[aim11] 04/8/2009 13:34

look forward not back. last year was a shocker for several reasons, most of which seem to have cleared up. new facility will be online and profitability last year is a poor guide to next few years, even adjusting for the non cash stock write off. same with haike.

[campomar2] 04/8/2009 13:21

Whats that got to do with judging where the share price will be?
The share price will be governed by expected future profits.
This sector is only given a P/E of 2.
So with a market cap of £ 6 million, and a share price of 15p CBI will have to make £3 million in profits, which seems extremely unlikely.
How on earth they managed to get a IPO at 85p per share is anyones guess.

[qipincha] 04/8/2009 12:57

hi guys,

look at the information provided from CBI financial report 2008, the
TOTAL EQUITY of the company is 182,755,112 RMB, which is about £16,614,000(with exchange rate 11), I guess that's why you have the 40p share target mentioned on advfn. (The value is not calculated from turnover, with exchange rate 10, the share price is 40p. )

[campomar2] 04/8/2009 12:56

One 15000 sell and the bid drops by 1p.

This is so illiquid, and could fly higher or slump on low volumes. Enjoy the ride but dont get trapped.

[jailbird] 04/8/2009 12:31

charting formations are easy to say after the event.

however i like using MAs for guidance.

Overbought RSI is short term indicator and no reflection of where the share price may end up.

However overbought RSI can mean little when the MACD is +tive and volume is being seen.

Something I picked up on FAR8 thread. Best to ask there for a more detailed advice.

[pelleeds1980] 04/8/2009 12:02

Nice shake

[qipincha] 04/8/2009 11:40

If you are holding a big chunk of share of CBI, don't sell it while the price moving up and down.

You will never get a good deal while the price is moving. And sell a small portion of share again and again will only decrease your profit.

[qipincha] 04/8/2009 11:37

check www.thisismoney.co.uk website,
you will find the detail of this share

Year Ending Revenue (CNYm) Pre-tax (CNYm) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Dec-05 68.04 28.23 74.70f n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0%
31-Dec-06 101.10 38.84 91.00f 12.5 0.6 +22% 8.16 0.7%
31-Dec-07 124.59 16.79 0.37CNY 7.8 n/a -100% 0.04 1.3%
31-Dec-08 164.20 4.31 0.09CNY 4.5 n/a -75% n/a 0.0%

I don't think the revenue related to share price very much, not even related to profit. (if you don't believe that, check the share like acu....seems they never make profit, but their share price is still valued at 7p.And look at RBS, they are not even making profit yet, the value per share is nearly 50p now.)
The exchange rate between RMB and Pounds is around 11.6 this week. Was around 9-10 at the beginning of this year.


2006-2007 is the first turning point of the company, which the profit has been hit by the low level of feedstock. Previous post has explained that this is largely solved by importing feedstock from other countries. Therefore, this year can be a turning point,too.A few reasons.The company is producing production of BII, which is more profitable. Plus the re-open of Xiamen plant, I believe the profit of the company will be improve significantly. So I will wait for the interim results in Sep.

Good luck to everyone.

[wolterix] 04/8/2009 11:24

raft of profit taking there methinks

good work ayesha..

[campomar2] 04/8/2009 11:23

Invstors chasing this are going to get their fingers burnt. This is now
way overbought on any chart indicator. Dont forget this sector only runs at a P/E of 2, and anyone buying on ADVFN figures are unwise because they are wrong. For fair value CBI will have to make £3million in profits this year which is wishful thinking, its irrelevent that NAV is higher. 10p is fair value. I rang through to sell my 100,000 and EVO's refused to even quote me! Now if that doesnt get the alarm bells ringing nothing will. I am steadily pulling out of this now; already managed to sell 40,000 for a 300% profit.

[ayesha4] 04/8/2009 11:18

I will eat humble pie if these are higher at the end of day.

good luck all

[ayesha4] 04/8/2009 11:15

AT THIS TIME - the fundamentals dont support buying at 18p - PER of 20 is too high

btw I made 7p a share profit on these - as a momentum play - not on fundamentals

SELL

[sos100] 04/8/2009 11:12

ayesha you always seem to turn up after the stocks has risen!

[aim11] 04/8/2009 11:11

net last yr was £1m if u strip out the stock write down, which u should. and the new facility was closed from about aug. go through the accounts and dont trust headline numbers. why do you think the cfo ploughed 2 months net pay into the stock before the close period started a month or so ago.