Thanks for that . In their last results they talked about confidence in swinging to profit in year Feb26 to Feb 27, though I worry that they find unforeseen costs that delay that plan.
Hope I am wrong and the turnaround happens. |
I put the numbers through my forecast model I had built and assuming they can take out about 1m in operating expenses (the listing alone costs about 500k and letting go of the Crimson Tide CFO will save at least 150k) and assuming that the Crimson Tide business is flat this year, then if I then assume that the combined revenue growth goes up to 25% from about 18% from the current Checkit business for 2027 (from cross sell and upsell then I get to an EBITA of almost 3m in Jan 2027 and 4.5m in Jan 2028. That compares to about 1.5m in the current Checkit forecast. The cash burn should stop at the end of this year so that should leave them with about 5m in cash. This whole sector is ripe for consolidation so I beleive CheckIt could play a major part in that and this is the first step. In about 12 m, the stock price should be a lot higher. They just need to continue to execute. |
Looks like the market thinks otherwise. Irrevocable now I see. |
I think its a great deal:
£5.2m ARR
£2.5m cash
Solid upsell customer base
Significant cost reduction |
I suppose a merger is better than being acquired by Crimson Tide at some minor advance on the current share price. |
Hard to tell from the outside , looks like the market is not impressed, we are now at an all time low. |
Well the trading update for CKT read rather better than that for TIDE, which is presumably why they had to come back to the table. I don't know the TIDE business, but one gets the impression that CKT is better managed.
A bit of increased risk hopefully leads to increased reward... |
From their investor calendar
20 February 2025 (provisional)
Year-End Trading Update |
Last year Checkit did a trading update on 15 Feb. Hopefully we will get similar this year. |
Good to see some contract wins, especially as some of the UK announcements relate to NHS providers, who have a lot of relatives and won't default. |
For every seller there's a buyer - feels like a seller cleared to me. Pity really, I never got my last scoop. |
But rather marginalised by the 5 million sold ! As the price was 15p they were presumably sells and not buys. Would have thought that some institution would be triggering an RNS. |
Flurry of buys this morning..... |
Personally I think the share price action over the past few years is almost entirely due to the end of what was the "free money era". Interest rates of 0,25% for years meant people bought growth ideas ahead of genuine profitable cash generative businesses. This company has changed its focus to get to profitability earlier than previously planned, when they were very confident of raising further growth capital. With each set of results you can see them getting closer to this goal, while still developing the product (albeit in a more focused way).
I will probably take another little scoop if the shares weaken any further. |
I'd settle for making a few pence here. I still think this is an overloaded plane going down a runway which is going to either run out of runway or it is going to get off the ground. It can't keep going forward for that much longer, it will run out of cash .
I have held since long before the change from Elecktron , and it was a very different company. Even owned Titman the machine tooling manufacturer for no obvious reason. The change of direction was either an astute move , ahead of the monitoring trends , or an eggs- in -one- basket gamble that will eventually destroy all value. I don't know enough about the company to judge , but the share price move over that time suggests the latter. |
Where would the share price be without JW? Best news in ages in my opinion. Someone with a track record of making investors millions. |
Interesting that the TR-1 notification specifies the buyer as "John Wilson & closely associated persons." Speculatively, these could include his private equity partners/backers. It could also be his spouse of course.
Don't be short! |
Already up to 5%. Serious buying boots on! |
I meant taking the company private before it has a chance to show its full potential.
If he is just a supportive shareholder then great! |
He already is by the looks of it Trev. If shareholder value is aligned with greed what’s the beef? Isn’t that what capitalism is predicated on? |
He's very good and ambitious but rather greedy. He will know the Checkit business, but I just hope he won't try and buy it on the cheap. |
So now we know about the volume with today's disclosure:
If he gets involved, could be massively positive. |
V big volume yesterday with a price rise. Hopefully a seller cleared or a capitulation trade.
Investment decisions made purely for tax reasons are usually wrong - just saying. |
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