Chariot Share Discussion Threads

[andonis] 13/5/2009 13:55

The stock market bubble

[andonis] 08/5/2009 11:45

lol .... so many zeros you get dizzy....the dollar cannot be for too long in this form.

[invisage] 08/5/2009 10:28

Ando

I have to admit, that is the ugliest chart you ever posted! :)

[andonis] 08/5/2009 10:25

With the meltdown in the stock market and the proposed "bailout" of the U.S. financial system by the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, it's worth taking a close look at what is actually going on instead of simply breathing a sigh of relief that another crisis has been averted.

Here's the text of the proposal from the Treasury Department, asking Congress to authorize the biggest financial commitment in the entire history of the United States. Note especially Section 8:

Section 1. Short Title.
This Act may be cited as ____________________.

Sec. 2. Purchases of Mortgage-Related Assets.
(a) Authority to Purchase.--The Secretary is authorized to purchase, and to make and fund commitments to purchase, on such terms and conditions as determined by the Secretary, mortgage-related assets from any financial institution having its headquarters in the United States.
(b) Necessary Actions.--The Secretary is authorized to take such actions as the Secretary deems necessary to carry out the authorities in this Act, including, without limitation:
(1) appointing such employees as may be required to carry out the authorities in this Act and defining their duties;
(2) entering into contracts, including contracts for services authorized by section 3109 of title 5, United States Code, without regard to any other provision of law regarding public contracts;
(3) designating financial institutions as financial agents of the Government, and they shall perform all such reasonable duties related to this Act as financial agents of the Government as may be required of them;
(4) establishing vehicles that are authorized, subject to supervision by the Secretary, to purchase mortgage-related assets and issue obligations; and
(5) issuing such regulations and other guidance as may be necessary or appropriate to define terms or carry out the authorities of this Act.

Sec. 3. Considerations.
In exercising the authorities granted in this Act, the Secretary shall take into consideration means for--
(1) providing stability or preventing disruption to the financial markets or banking system; and
(2) protecting the taxpayer.

Sec. 4. Reports to Congress.
Within three months of the first exercise of the authority granted in section 2(a), and semiannually thereafter, the Secretary shall report to the Committees on the Budget, Financial Services, and Ways and Means of the House of Representatives and the Committees on the Budget, Finance, and Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the Senate with respect to the authorities exercised under this Act and the considerations required by section 3.

Sec. 5. Rights; Management; Sale of Mortgage-Related Assets.
(a) Exercise of Rights.--The Secretary may, at any time, exercise any rights received in connection with mortgage-related assets purchased under this Act.
(b) Management of Mortgage-Related Assets.--The Secretary shall have authority to manage mortgage-related assets purchased under this Act, including revenues and portfolio risks therefrom.
(c) Sale of Mortgage-Related Assets.--The Secretary may, at any time, upon terms and conditions and at prices determined by the Secretary, sell, or enter into securities loans, repurchase transactions or other financial transactions in regard to, any mortgage-related asset purchased under this Act.
(d) Application of Sunset to Mortgage-Related Assets.--The authority of the Secretary to hold any mortgage-related asset purchased under this Act before the termination date in section 9, or to purchase or fund the purchase of a mortgage-related asset under a commitment entered into before the termination date in section 9, is not subject to the provisions of section 9.

Sec. 6. Maximum Amount of Authorized Purchases.
The Secretary's authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time

Sec. 7. Funding.
For the purpose of the authorities granted in this Act, and for the costs of administering those authorities, the Secretary may use the proceeds of the sale of any securities issued under chapter 31 of title 31, United States Code, and the purposes for which securities may be issued under chapter 31 of title 31, United States Code, are extended to include actions authorized by this Act, including the payment of administrative expenses. Any funds expended for actions authorized by this Act, including the payment of administrative expenses, shall be deemed appropriated at the time of such expenditure.

Sec. 8. Review.
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

Sec. 9. Termination of Authority.
The authorities under this Act, with the exception of authorities granted in sections 2(b)(5), 5 and 7, shall terminate two years from the date of enactment of this Act.

Sec. 10. Increase in Statutory Limit on the Public Debt.
Subsection (b) of section 3101 of title 31, United States Code, is amended by striking out the dollar limitation contained in such subsection and inserting in lieu thereof $11,315,000,000,000.

Sec. 11. Credit Reform.
The costs of purchases of mortgage-related assets made under section 2(a) of this Act shall be determined as provided under the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990, as applicable.

Sec. 12. Definitions.
For purposes of this section, the following definitions shall apply:
(1) Mortgage-Related Assets.--The term "mortgage-related assets" means residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before September 17, 2008.
(2) Secretary.--The term "Secretary" means the Secretary of the Treasury.
(3) United States.--The term "United States" means the States, territories, and possessions of the United States and the District of Columbia.

[andonis] 04/5/2009 16:40

9000 soon in a few days is not impossible

[invisage] 04/5/2009 15:58

Where is the next turn date Andonis in the indicies ?

Where do you see the DOW topping out before the next leg down ?

[andonis] 04/5/2009 15:02

Heading for 8400


free stock charts from www.advfn.com

[andonis] 03/5/2009 18:03

Martin Armstrong's PEI Cycle


Martin_A._Armstrong, without doubt one of the most brilliant cycle analysts in history. In over 30 years of research he developed, based on the past thousands of years, among other factors the Princeton Economics Institute (PEI) model derived from the number pi (3.14159). With the aid of the PEI and proprietary cycles, Armstrong was able to make predictions years (!) in advance (almost) to the day. E.g. he called the Nikkei top in the last week of 1989 and the ensuing spectacular crash. After having predicted the Asia crisis in 1997 the Chinese government wanted to hire him, and after he had called the 1998 summer top and crash begin to the day his reputation grew even more (especially in Asia but also in the US), his institute employed a staff of hundreds.
Unfortunately, his popularity became a major stumbling block after he refused to cooperate with the CIA in 1999. Understandably, he was not willing to give his proprietary cycles and programs to someone else. So on 1/14/00 ('accidentally' the inflation-adjusted all-time high of the Dow Jones), he was imprisoned for 6 years without charges being pressed. Needless to say this is against the US constitution and everything supports the interpretation that Armstrong is a political prisoner.
This is Armstrong's main cycle, the Economic Confidence Model, with the cycle length of 8.6 years being calculated as pi 3.14159 x 1000 = 3.142 days. The numbers are stating the year in decimal format, e.g. 1994.25 is early April 1994 and 2006.0 (2006 in the chart) is 1/1/2006. Of key importance are the 8.6-year highs and lows (fat in the chart), all others are secondary.


Economic confidence is crucial for the development of the financial markets, especially of bubbles that can be defined psychologically as exaggerated and unrealistic confidence. The two 8.6 year cycles 1994.25 and 2002.85 were troughs of the 4-year cycle, 1994.25 even to the day. The high 1989.95 was the Nikkei all-time high, 1998.55 the high of the stock markets before the crash into October 1998. The latest confidence top 2007.16 (= late February 2007) marked the bursting of the real estate bubble and the first subprime problems.
Around the spring equinox 3/21/2008 (2008.225 in the chart we had a confidence low: confidence and sentiment measures dropped to the lowest levels in 5-10 years indicating a kind of an end-of-the-world sentiment. From here on confidence (and the stock markets) should better into the 2nd quarter 2009 (2009.3 in the chart), however, from mid-2009 there is fire on the roof as almost all models (not just the PEI) are turning bearish.
Interestingly, gold did set a major top in March 2008 8.6 years after the bear market bottom 1999 (7/20/99 & 8/25/99 double bottom). The end of the gold bear market was timed by 1999.625 in the PEI model
Armstrong also made long-term calls decades into the future, e.g. with the aid of the 224 year political cycle (224.7 days is one revolution of Venus): 224 = 26 x 8.6 (

[blogit] 03/5/2009 17:48

Handy free link with online videos re markets, trading and technical analysis.

This one gives you an instant technical report on any major stock, index, FX pair, gold oil.

[andonis] 03/5/2009 17:40

New research on the Bradley siderograph

The Bradley chart is always marked with the hint that the dates only show turning points and not polarity, i.e. a siderograph low has almost the same odds of nailing a stock market high or a low (the opposite is true for siderograph highs). Since late 2007 the same 50:50 pattern can be detected.
However, that doesn't mean that the siderograph is telling nothing about direction, even though the exact rules can only be determined with the aid of rigorous statistical testing. Since 1950 the Pearson correlation coefficient r (geo, helio, N=21.459) is at 2-3% which means that the correlation of the Bradley with the Dow Jones is zero, i.e. in general the daily direction (up or down) of the Bradley is not indicative for the stock market. The rule is that r can be between -1 and +1, with +1 meaning a perfect match and -1 a perfect inversion. Everything larger than r>0.7-0.8 (r2>0.5-0.6) is useful in principal, although one should focus on correlation coefficients of r>0.85 (r2>0.7).
However, everything depends on a moderating variable: whether the index is in a bull or bear market. Since 3/2008 r (geo, helio; N=210) = 76%, i.e. the Bradley has been quite useful in predicting the direction (up or down) of the Dow Jones. From 1/2002 until 6/2003 we had comparably emotional markets as since 2008 and the correlation was almost the same: r (geo, N=520)=78.4% and r (helio, N=520)=67.6%. In the bear market 1973-74 we saw r (geo, helio, N=701) = 0.76 and thus again in the same region. In contrast, during the calm time 6/2003 - 3/2007 we had a quite negative (!) correlation: r (geo, N=1362) = -0.43 and r (helio, N=1362) = -0.62. A negative correlation coefficient means that the siderograph and the Dow Jones tend to trade just inverted.
Somewhat exaggerated one could say: the dates of the Bradley do work regardless of the trend (bull or bear) whereas the direction of the Bradley only works in bear trends (in bull markets there is a weak bias for the stock market to do just the opposite than the Bradley). Because stock markets & commodities are both controlled by liquidity (equities are leading, commodities are following), the Bradley is getting an indicator for global liquidity in times like that and thus a indicates the direction of the stock markets in general.
How can it be explained that the market is paying more attention to astrological constellations in bad times than in good times (this observation is not restricted to the Bradley)? The more people are governed by fear (of financial losses, of economic troubles, unemployment and so on), the lower their consciousness and the lower their consciousness, the more they are governed by the constellations. In contrast, the more you are centered in yourself, the higher your consciousness and the more independent and free your become, which is true both for individuals and the crowd. Enlightenment can be defined as the theoretical condition (that may not be reached in reality) where you are only connected the divine and no longer with the stars.
The Bradley siderograph was developed in the 40ies by Donald Bradley to forecast the stock markets (link book). Bradley assigned numerical values to certain planetary constellations for every day, and the sum is the siderograph. It was originally intended to predict the stock markets. The noted technical analyst William Eng singled out the Bradley model as the only 'excellent' Timing Indicator in his book, "Technical Analysis of Stocks, Options, and Futures" (source: Astrikos).
It is crucial to understand what the siderograph is about since almost all traders (and even and even financial astrologers!) misunderstand it. Over the decades it has been observed that the siderograph can NOT (!!!) reliably predict the direction but only turning points in the financial markets (stocks, bonds, bonds, commodities) within a time window of +/- 4 calendar days (in a few cases up to +/- 7 days). Inversions (i.e. a high instead of a low and vice versa) are quite common. Also, it is not a timing tool for short-term trends but rather for intermediate-term to longer-term trends because the turning window is rather wide.

[andonis] 03/5/2009 17:38

It has the following turning points:
12/14, 2008 (important)
1/20-21, 2009
2/8-9, 2009
6/3, 2009
6/26, 2009
7/14-15, 2009 (important)
9/14-15, 2009
10/22-23, 2009
11/9, 2009 (important)

[andonis] 29/4/2009 19:37

andonis - 21 Mar'09 - 20:16 - 894 of 909 edit
The downturn is done for now...As this is a perfect 3rd wave extension downwards.... Time for an ABC pullback to 9000

[andonis] 24/3/2009 17:59

What about OIL? I have news for you.....110 first and then 120!

[andonis] 24/3/2009 17:37

What about the UK POUND versus EURO? GBP is to rise my friend to 1.2 Euro.

[andonis] 24/3/2009 17:29

Where is EURO heading related to the USD? ANSWER 1EU=1 DOLLAR

[invisage] 22/3/2009 19:52

How do you think the stock market will play out over the next 6-9 months ?