Chariot Share Discussion Threads

[hedgebetter] 18/10/2012 21:09

Still accumulating ... :-)

[royalalbert] 18/10/2012 20:42

Would not think so, time difference to great.

[newswseller] 18/10/2012 20:10

Rollovers?

[ernestly] 18/10/2012 20:04

£100,000 the last two buy transactions at 30.6

[fidra] 18/10/2012 20:01

The volume weighted price today was 30.56p

[ernestly] 18/10/2012 19:58

well it is still not exciting but it is holding it's ground.. two late big ones tipped the balance for buys today

[salpara111] 18/10/2012 12:34

I understand what people are saying about assets here but as a holder of Heritage Oil I am acutely aware that very little value is placed on assets that are not producing.
If you do a "sum of the parts" valuation on Heritage then it is worth over 3x its current market value. The only reason their share price rose recently was that they managed to monetise one of those assets and buy themselves 11,500 boepd of production. The market places much greater value on producing assets, simple as that.

[fairenough11] 18/10/2012 10:23

Well,if you ain't taken advantage yet then more fool you.Once we break the 32p range then its up up and away.
Namibia
Mauritania
Morocco

valued at NIL.

[fidra] 18/10/2012 10:21

This looks like it is starting to move north.Any buys coming moving the price now.There was more volume yesterday when the price started moving upwards.

Hopefully I am correct!

[newswseller] 18/10/2012 08:40

On the west coast, Hulf has high hopes for Namibia, where Chariot Oil & Gas (LON:CHAR) is exploring. He mentions that acquisitions of such firms by Chinese conglomerates offer 'very important exits' for investors too.

[hedgebetter] 17/10/2012 19:27

Posted on III

Afternoon,

Now my digging and buying are nearly complete i will post here what I have been able to obtain from the RIGHT people with the right answers... My points are all 100% based on facts and all up to date. Here goes for those who want to know why I still believe now is a better time to be buying than when we sat in triple digits and dreaming of £5 plus per share.

So as we sit at a share price of minus 72% year to date and equity below cash value, this implies that the market has totally written off our acreage and its potential. Is this fair to value our acreage based on a two well drilling campaign to date?

Namibia's upstream industry remains immature with very few wells drilled as well as a poorly understood geological model. But what we found was an oil mature source in our southern block which is important. possibly mitigating what is a key geological risk in frontier exploration. we will only know the answer when all the data has been completed (1Q13) and then we will find out if this is high quality, thick, oil mature source capable of charging multi million barrel reservoirs. This will also have a baring on the rest of our acreage within other prospects.

Kabeljou-1

A four way dip closed sandstone fan overlying a structural high, providing a focus for hydrocarbon migration. Charge was expected from the Aptian-Barriemian source rock, which had identified as the source for the Kudu gas field (Orange Basin) discovery. it was anticipated that over-mature source at Kudu (buried at depths of 6km hence in the gas window) would be oil prone (buried at shallower depths 4km)beneath Nimrod.

The reservoir encountered was of lower quality than anticipated. Rather than one major fan it now appears reservoir sands have been deposited in localised channels. Kabeljou is thought to have penetrated a lower quality section of the reservoir. This is consistant with the mottled, pock marked nature of the seismic on the prospect. So originally this was imterpreted as a data quality issue, in fact it appears to have been a reservoir quality issue. there may be other parts of the reservoir with higher quality sands. Sedimentologic work is required to understand this better. The seismic direct hydrocarbon indicators identified pre-drill are likely to have been caused by a facies change with low level of hydrocarbon saturation. What is important is there were significant hydrocarbon shows at certain levels in the well and these together with an understanding of rich source in the well, point to a very promising play that has not been drilled to date...

The point being that the key risk in frontier exploration basins is typically source rock, so its very encouraging that Kabeljou encountered source...

The two most important questions are...

Is the Nimrod structure a write off?

A possible scenario that the source rock is producing oil and the well intercepted a localised poor quality section of reservoir then, there could be potential to recover commercial volumes in higher quality channels as i mentioned earlier.

Secondly, what does the presence of oil mature source rock mean for the southern blocks and the rest of the portfolio?

The presence of high-quality source in Kabeljou-1 could have important implications in respect of de-risking other geological distinct prospects Chariot has idetified in its southern blocks (Orange basin) and potentially in Chariots acreage in the central blocks (Luderitz basin). we have four seperate basins defined in Namibia, although the sedimantary sections are fairly continous along the shelf the distances involved being c500km between Nimrod and Delta we still have limited information as of yet.

The consortium will be in a position to answer the main question, if Kabeljou-1 has proven up the exsistance of high quality, thick, oil mature capable of charging mulit-million barrel reservoirs as early as 1Q2013...

All what I have mentioned above will determine whether a second well will be drilled on the blocks, and if Petrobras will remain committed to a further drilling campaign. One thing for sure they must make a decison by May 2013. If Petrobras do exit the consortium then our relationship with BP would be key. Note BP has taken further acreage in the Luderitz basin.

Have we got any key events coming up?

4Q12: Mauritania block C-19 Initial resource estimate based on 2D seismic.
4Q12: Mauritania block C-19 Commencement of 3D seismic work survey over 1600km.
1Q13: Namibia Northern blocks, Resource update and competent persons report.
1Q13: Namibia Central blocks, competent persons report and launch of farm out process.
1Q13-3Q13: Namibia, Southern and central bocks. HRT embarks on a 4 well drilling campaign.
1Q13: Mauritania, Tullow oil embarks on a 4 well drilling campaign, adjacent to our block C-19.
2Q13: Namibia, Southern blocks. Resource update and possible CPR.
2Q13: Namibia, Southern blocks. May 2013 a JV agreement must decide whether to continue the 2 year phase of the permit with the consortium (Chariot,BP,Petrobras).
4Q13: Namibia, Central blocks. Drilling of first exploration well on the blocks, with pending farm out.
2013: Namibia, Southern blocks. Possible second exploration well on the blocks.

And all for 30p a share!

From a risk reward now we are skewed to the upside...

GL all

tarkes

[triples] 17/10/2012 16:14

I would top up with these but I have a frightening number of them already. My porty is really way out of kilter with this one and, hopefully, that will get worse :)

[fairenough11] 17/10/2012 15:09

I won't be moaning--"I wish I had bought more sub 32p"---I bought more.Reminds me in a strange kind of way of Afren at 14p a few years ago.Lots of future Farm in/Drilling--direct and indirect--- news to come here as things take shape in Namibia.Anyone hits Oil and up we fly

[lanaken] 17/10/2012 15:06

gwb,

Good on yer gwb.

repo

[guesswhosback] 17/10/2012 15:04

Yeah and Pro would know what ramping is all about. I have added here, its a bargain and one day everyone will moan that they didn't take advantage. DYOR

[lanaken] 17/10/2012 14:44

Just topped up some more. Under 30p is a bargain, imv. Hardly anyone is buying though.

I don't know why these are down here at this price.

If Mr Market really knows why these should be priced at cash, then I really should stick all my money into bank prefs/high yielding big companies and retire.

Morocco is hot too. Anyone who has listened to the Genel geologist ,John Hurst, at last week's capital markets day should realise this too.



repo

His name reminds me of the famous line

They think it's all over but....

this time it's just beginning.

DYOR, because as pro says I've gone a bit rampy on this one.

[triples] 17/10/2012 14:42

Warming up nicely.. back into the 30's

[newswseller] 17/10/2012 12:59

Weird action here.. Someone paid full offer for 1k shares, followed by paying well over offer for 165k shares and then you could buy 10k under the offer...

[fairenough11] 17/10/2012 10:52

Undervalued by any metric you care to use.

Namibia remains a multi billion barrel oip target and the chances are at least as good if not better(info gleaned)than before the last drill.
Wrong place(tee hee) and not deep enough are two good reasons why commercially extractable oil were not found despite the 3d seismics.Seen it all before and especially at Cairn.

duster---duster---Cairn buy Shells WI for a song-------very next drill BINGO--The jackpot.

BPs presence and imminent Farm in terms to be agreed tell me that there was more to the last "duster"(lol) than meets the eye and I have put my money where my mouth is.
Then we have Mauritania and Morocco,which along with Namibia are currently valued at less than NIL!!!!

Namibia is "hot",make no mistake about that and BP know it.
Lets see how it all unfolds,but IMO,you can't go far wrong buying in at these prices as there is no value attached to the acreage which is complete nonsense.The 3D Seismic alone in Namibia is very valuable.

The market will try and flush out TTraders/STSpreadbetters who bought on the drop before raising the sp,but once it starts it could be relentless.Patience only needed imo.

GLA.

[fidra] 17/10/2012 10:26

C.hariot Oil and Gas (CHARC.L) Not on fire but the embers still burn
Price (15 Oct 2012).................30p/US$0.48 rating...............Buy (Unchanged)
Potentially significant value remains in the portfolio
Chariot's initial two well campaign, offshore Namibia, failed to yield a commercial discovery. The equity (-73% YtD) now trades around the 2013E cash balance of ~$75m (£0.24/sh) adjusted for all commitments, implying the market has entirely written off any future potential in its acreage. W.e do not regard this as the appropriate conclusion and see potentially significant value in the portfolio.
Oil generative source kitchen discovered the question is...how good?
Namibia is a genuine frontier play and, whilst the geological model remains poorly understood, Chariot's wells have revealed valuable data. The potential presence of oil-mature source in the Southern Block is important; possibly mitigating what is the key geological risk in frontier exploration. Only when further analysis of well data has been completed in 1Q13 will we know whether this is a high quality, thick, oil-mature source capable of charging multi-million barrel r.eservoirs. If so, there could be positive implications for both the Nimrod structure (which might not be a write-off) and other prospects within Chariot's inventory.
Catalysts a little long dated but material prospects remain
Chariot hopes to farm-out and drill a fully carried well on the Central Block next year, possibly on the 790MMbbl Delta-1 prospect – a 50% share in a discovery would be worth ~$3bn (£10/sh). A further well on the Southern Block may also be drilled. Tullow Oil's campaign next y.ear offshore Mauritania (where Chariot has an adjacent block) and HRT's in Namibia could provide interesting read-across.
Valuation; PT set by reference to 2013E cash plus farm-in markers
PT £0.70/sh: 2013E cash (£0.24); Central Block (£0.36); Southern Block (£0.11).

From ubs this morning.target price 70p

[newswseller] 17/10/2012 09:01

oddly not a single AT trade today so far

[fidra] 17/10/2012 08:37

Looks like a different set up on L2 today.CSTE or CANA(?) as they appear have changed and are not selling down.Also not as many orders for buy or sell on the board.

Could be interesting to see what happens.

[andonis] 17/10/2012 07:51

From last nights close a retrace of 50 or 100 points is feasible, but it should be a spring board to retest 13650 ish.