Cerillion Share Discussion Threads

[alphabeta4] 26/5/2016 16:33

As a heads up I met with the management today and there is a skew to H2 which has been seen in previous years (and indeed comes out on the like for like). Basically comes down to company budgets and a 'use it or lose it' skewing software sales

[ramridge] 23/5/2016 13:42

You could well be right, oregano. But I have used adjusted figures, adjusted for IPO funnies and mostly provided by the company in the HY report.
If I see evidence of decent growth, I will probably dive back in. At the moment I am happy to protect the 50%+ profit I am sitting on.

[oregano] 23/5/2016 13:06

FWIW ram, I think you have jumped the gun. given the order backlog and pipeline, investment in cloud platform etc, I think the signs augur well for growth prospects, which will attain a high valuation eventually.

there were some funnies in the P&L due to the way the float was structured.

[ramridge] 23/5/2016 10:03

I sold out at the bell this morning for the following reasons:

- HY2016 adjusted eps = 2.3p . This is poor when you compare it to the full year 2015 adj. eps of 6.97p

- net profit this HY = £0.7m ; For full yr 2015, np was £2.06m; Again not very reassuring.

- Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow have both turned negative.

So overall, I was expecting a much better performance. There are no company or broker guidance data that I am aware of.

All IMO and please DYOR.

[davidosh] 23/5/2016 08:12

The maiden interim results since listing are out this morning....



I have two places available on a group presentation with the directors at 2.30 pm on Thursday if there are a couple of you that would like to join me in meeting this company ? Just mail me via www.mellomeeting.co.uk

[oregano] 18/5/2016 10:16

John Lee's article is quite reassuring. it is a strangely volatile stock for one with little newsflow.

[rubberbullets] 12/5/2016 18:59

If they make same £2.1m this year , then i make P/E/R is almost 23x
that is dear

[opodio] 10/5/2016 17:34

I will not be bullied or goaded to buying blindly and like to do research


Link to prospectus


Is the director who holds 43% or the two institutions with 18% each goig to start dumping>

Page 57 of prospectus

hasnt been growing in the last 3 years wither with profits of £2.3m, £2.6m and £2.1m.

Looks a stupid rating now


Page 43 prospectus

Future share sales may depress the price.

[robow] 07/5/2016 13:20

Lord Lee is a fan. A full page write up in the FT Money section today as he has just bought in.

[robow] 22/4/2016 11:21

good call ocaudillo.

[oregano] 22/4/2016 08:04

if they are going to grow the top line at 11% and profit at 20%, then this is cheap. It was floated on 8x EBITDA, presumably now on 11x. that multiple could increase by 50% if they are going to grow at 20%. don't forget they are going to pay out half fcf in divis.

[ramridge] 22/4/2016 07:45

Today's update confirms that trading is in line.
Which means that pe, current and forecast, is around 17.5 (stocko). The sector's average pe is around 22 (also stocko), so there is further upside.

I have partly cashed in to protect my profit, the rest is free ride.

[ocaudillo] 22/4/2016 07:15

After the trading update this morning and the resulting 1.8% rise at the time of writing, I'm reminded of the story about the economist who walked by some money on the ground and when asked why he didn't pick it up, said "if it were real, someone else would've picked it up already".

[ocaudillo] 20/4/2016 06:47

Except, this isn't gambling. The last three years' figures are out there already. Their accounts are straightforward, this one doesn't need a spreadsheet or a even a calculator - it's enough to eyeball it. What's so crucial about "the update"? Maybe you have some reason to believe that business has dropped off a cliff since the end of last September?

[ali47fish] 19/4/2016 12:38

Salpara , you simply said it for me- i was only in this one fo r ashort period and got out quickly after the first fall with a small profit- the only test is indeed in the update , the rest is gambling - i hope i will always remember this venerable mantra

[salpara111] 15/4/2016 11:52

I looked at this one at float but I have little confidence in new IPOs after getting absolutely caned by HSS last year.
I now take a view that I will only invest when I see the first set of financial data and if that means I miss the first bump in the share price price so be it!

[buying] 15/4/2016 11:41

Think punters might have a chance to get into this nearer the one pound mark

[ramridge] 15/4/2016 05:31

RobMal - Thanks for the links. I found the edison interview interesting. The CEO was a tad nervous. Probably his first time being interviewed on business TV.

Having reviewed again the financials in the admission document, the huge rise in the share price has probably brought this share to being fully priced now as opposed to being cheap at the start. So my view now is that it will settle around today's price (after yesterday's 11% sell-off). But the real test will be when we get a broker forecast and see how the market reacts.
All IMO.

[robmal] 14/4/2016 17:32

issuu.com/businessreviewaustralia/docs/braus_april16/27?e=12486797/34591878

www.cerillion.com/News-Events/Press-Releases/GE-names-Cerillion-as-Sales-Innovations-Award-winn?platform=hootsuite

www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/edison-tv/clip/executive-interview-cerillion

[gswredland] 14/4/2016 16:07

I wonder how much further it has to fall?

[ali47fish] 14/4/2016 15:44

i am one of them who sold out/as soon as i saw afall of more than 10 pc i went out with a small profit- i hate thse shares which spike for days and fall like a stone- the interview on proactive with the ceo was impressive and added only to sell this morning! no lessons learnt

[ramridge] 14/4/2016 14:24

The last commentary on this share as far as I know is from Tempus of The Times (end march) when he said to buy because it was ipo'ed too cheaply. Something like 8xEBITDA. He said it was a mature business priced too cheap.

[liam1om] 14/4/2016 13:39

I did this a couple of weeks ago. Dropped 12% in a day down to around 106. Then rallied up to 140+ in the following days.

[ramridge] 14/4/2016 12:02

probably naked trader's band of followers who piled in when he recommended this share a few weeks back, and who are now busy exiting when they smell a 5-10% gain.