Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[cheading] 25/1/2008 16:06

the analyst

If they're going bust??? why did management put £280k in - usually their buying is a leading indicator. Only a guess. Visited them, and am a recent buyer.

cheers

cheading

[amotoor] 24/1/2008 23:38

RV : I hope I am wrong with Cellcast, that will save lot of ppl lot of pain, I think you included. You have been Very positive sine around 10p, but share price is telling different story. Most investors have lost money or sitting on paper loss, so far with this company, me included, apart from current management who made money on IPO and since than, with Pay Chqs. But if this comes good, great, in a mean time its foolish to stick your head in the sand. I think TA sums it up in the post above (259). IMHO

Amo

[the analyst] 24/1/2008 23:01

The current market cap is only just over £2m, so they're either going bust or they are the bargain of the century.

So, yes, time will tell.

I don't think we have have long to wait - I think we will have a good idea about the future by the end of April

[moneymaker6] 24/1/2008 22:39

RV, is that one of Mr.Wilsons true stories ... you know, like the Brasil one last year.

I think the market has sussed these guys. Still, a further years salary will cover the 4p shares, so they wont lose out on that little deal.

[recto verso] 24/1/2008 18:21

At least you hope so Amotoor lol.

Obviously those who hold would tell a different story.

The true story will unfold in due course...

[amotoor] 24/1/2008 12:14

Big_Chops :- Jury is out big time on if they can do it. Personally I don't think they can. Only little hope there, is Mr Brown, but he has nothing to loose as he doesn't hold any shares. It would have been good confidence booster if Mr Brown would have taken some shares, put ur money where your mouth is etc etc. I'm sure he has his reasons. Right now as MM said 2p is on cards. IMHO.

AMO

[big_chops_2] 24/1/2008 11:34

TA, I like the web concept of TV as so far it hasn't really been done particularly well do you think these guys could do it?

[big_chops_2] 24/1/2008 11:28

Thanks TA.

[the analyst] 23/1/2008 18:55

Yup, certainly do Big Chops!

If they spin-off the sumo brand for anywhere near its worth, then it should do well. If nobody wants it, they may have to come back to the market for more cash, which could be a disaster.

It's a gamble, but if it comes off it could be a huge winner.

[big_chops_2] 23/1/2008 18:38

Hi TA these look interesting low MCAP decent ervenue etc. Can I assume that you think that these are worth a punt.

[the analyst] 23/1/2008 14:58

Not quite sure why this is being released today, rather than whent he news broke, but more publicity can't harm:



Gaming Ventures Signs Cellcast Deal
23-01-08

UK-based online gambling investment firm Gaming Ventures, the company behind BigHeartBingo.co.uk, has signed an agreement with interactive digital broadcaster Cellcast.
Gaming Ventures was formed in mid-2006 and stated that the deal would see it offer its gambling products to viewers and users of Cellcast's international satellite television, streaming video, Internet and mobile channels.

'This is the first step of our joint venture plan to establish a gaming vertical that will utilise the existing assets of both companies without significant capital expenditure," said Graham Martin, Chief Executive Officer for Gaming Ventures.

"We will offer mobile and online gaming and gambling and live horse racing content in the year ahead.'

Gaming Ventures stated that the deal is a good fit with its objectives, which are to invest in or acquire assets, businesses or companies that profit or have the potential of profiting from the global multi-media entertainment market.

In addition to BigHeartBingo.co.uk, Gaming Ventures also operates mobile casino ShoutingDuckCasino.com and has begun a joint venture with wireless broadband provider Wicoms Ltd.

'Gaming Ventures has a compelling portfolio of games that range from traditional casino through skill games to new lottery variants that can be tailored to the various demographics of our channels," said Andrew Wilson of Cellcast.

"As an adjunct to these activities, we are also in the process of aggregating gaming related short form video content and developing a gaming related vertical on Sumo.tv.'

[barnsey] 22/1/2008 23:31

After watching and enjoying this epic flight you realise the pleasure that
Sumo gives,now showing on BEBO.




Epic Paper Aeroplane Flight.

View on full screen, brilliant my grandson loved it.

[moneymaker6] 22/1/2008 22:18

James T Kirk - 22 Jan'08 - 13:48 - 244 of 246

Its fair to say James that I'm not that confident on current trading. The chart and market signal that. However, I am more confident that shareholder value can be unlocked from the sale of the increasingly valuable 'retail assets' as referred to in post 245 from the analyst.

[lyonst5] 22/1/2008 14:15

Just to lets you you folks know thats my buy at 50k @ 3.24 and not a sell. :)

[the analyst] 22/1/2008 13:59

Yup, it all hangs on whether there really is demand to buy into the sumo brand and the infrastructure that Cellcast have built up around it.

This should cheer you up, though:




Sky EPG set for year of big-money deals
Published: 09 January 2008 12:33 Author: Yvette Mackenzie More by this AuthorLast Updated: 09 January 2008 16:45
Miami Ink
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This year will be a bumper one for multimillion-pound Sky EPG deals, according to the founder of a company that brokers deals for channel slots.
Canis Media Group founder Ed Hall said he expected a "flurry of activity" from the 100 to 150 companies that had missed out on slots because of Sky's decision to reject new applications and established broadcasters are looking for a better slot.

"The EPG is like the real estate market - location is everything. As a result big name broadcasters will jostle for the best possible positions high up on the first pages of the EPG. At present, top slots on the entertainment page are worth tens of millions of pounds and those at the bottom only about £50,000, but prices are set to rise," he added.

Canis has just overseen a deal which will see television shopping and infomercial company JML Direct buy two shopping channels on page three of the EPG from Vector Direct. The acquisition of Vector 24/7 on 652 and Shop Vector+ on 656 cost JML a "substantial six-figure sum" and will give JML four channels on the EPG.

Canis also has three other deals in the pipeline including one with a household-name broadcaster which is buying a prominently positioned EPG slot.

Since it was set up in 2001, the company has overseen approximately 30 EPG deals.

At present any Ofcom-licensed broadcaster can trade freely in EPG slots, meaning smaller channels with good slots are likely to be cannibalised by bigger groups which can offer to buy them out. Hall said that this could potentially lead to competition issues in future.

It is also easier for bigger channels to adhere to Sky's new policy of insisting channels carry no less than six hours of non-repeated programming in each 24-hour period. This policy, which will be introduced on 1 July, will also specify no less than 24 hours of non-repeating programming in each seven-day period and no less than 50 hours of non-repeating programming within each 30-day period.

EPG deals last year included Channel 4 buying three EPG slots from niche broadcaster Life TV Media, giving it a six-channel block. Life TV Media was attractive because it operated three channels (137, 138 and 139) in EPG slots which were directly below C4's digital portfolio.

Discovery also bought an EPG slot to launch its DMAX entertainment channel, which shows the likes of Miami Ink, Deadliest Catch and My Shocking Story. It bought channel 155 in the entertainment category from Original Black Entertainment.

Author: Yvette Mackenzie.

[james t kirk] 22/1/2008 13:48

Blimey you're upbeat!

[moneymaker6] 22/1/2008 11:49

Certainly doesn't look like a Co. that's about to spin-off a major part of its business for a sum in multiples of current valuation. Chart suggesting 2p.

[davidruk] 22/1/2008 11:44

I assume everyone here is sat firmly in their bunkers with hard hats on. Dont panic Captain Mannering!

[the analyst] 18/1/2008 00:07

amatoor, I agree, the numbers are going to be terrible, imo.

However, for me, at least for the important mid-term time-frame, the investment is primarily all about the value of sumo. That is, up until the next Headstart £500k comes onto the market. Because the company is looking to sell-off or float the sumo brand, the value they get from it is going to be crucial.

My guess is that the combination of the sumo website, the tv channels and the technology to link that through to mobile is worth between £10m and £20m. If that value can be extracted from sumo, then I think we can start thinking about the other assets and how they will develop them with the cash. If they do get more than £10m for sumo, the company will transform, imo. We could be looking at 20p per share in a matter of days if the sumo deal comes off.

If they managed to get that sort of cash in the bank from sumo, the company can start to develop the other assets, including South America and China and we could start thinking about Cellcast as a potential £100m+ company in five eyars time...

It's obviously not going to be easy, but I guess that the marekt realises this and hence the reason that Cellcast only has a market cap of £3m, as opposed to £20-£50m

[amotoor] 17/1/2008 22:45

Topgun & TA : I think numbers may not come what we have been expecting. As sales have been shrinking in UK and EU (see figures below from Interim). Short fall was replaced with sales from Asia and South America. Asia now a separate entity, so we wont get much from there and Brazil having some problems too, so until we see some figures we won,t know how things have been performing. Imho.

Amo



Unaudited Unaudited Unaudited
30 June 2007 30 June 2006 31 December
2006
# # #
REVENUE
UK 5,631,624 7,198,237 12,900,563
Rest of Europe 600,000 2,196,240 6,889,485
Asia 764,690 218,077 1,019,629
South America 4,399,959 1,168,295

Total 11,396,273 9,612,554 21,977,972

COST OF SALES
UK 4,421,355 6,605,534 12,745,472
Rest of Europe 500,000 1,864,849 2,891,623
Asia 1,020,183 321,579 1,117,728
South America 4,082,618 1,013,356

Total 10,024,157 8,791,962 17,768,179

GROSS PROFIT
UK 1,210,268 592,703 155,091
Rest of Europe 100,000 331,391 3,997,862
Asia (255,493) (103,502) (98,099)
South America 317,341 154,939

Total 1,372,116 820,592 4,209,793

OPERATING LOSS
UK (127,748) (1,302,481) (2,091,118)
Rest of Europe 116,862
Asia (629,558) (306,194) (592,982)
South America (279,586) (131,220) (9,674)
Non Segmental
Depreciation and amortisation (234,831) (285,368) (575,159)
IFRS 2 charge -share option (492,708) (160,515) (298,895)
expense

Total (1,764,431) (2,185,778) (3,450,966)

[barnsey] 17/1/2008 20:04

While Sumotv could be the jewel in the crown, let's not forget that it is a
very small part of the Cellcast setup and i would imagine a long way off
producing any profit.
The last full years turnover of nearly 22 mill would not have included anything
from Sumo at all.
The market see no value at the moment in Sumo but if things go to plan they
may just be in for one mighty wake up call, fingers and everthing else crossed.
The same goes for Cellcast Asia and China which in time could both generate
significant profit for Cellcast.
The UK we know is profitable the big question from an investment viewpoint is
when will some of the operations in other countries start to turn a profit and
be reflected in Cellcast showing overall profits
The fast pace of developing Cellcast in all these other countries is great for
the long term but does nothing short term for the bottom line.
There was a glimmer of hope re Brazil and i feel sure the directors will turn
this back round when you consider the deals done with major tv setups in Brazil
and other partners who all share the proceeds.

So let's hope we all have the patience, it could take a while or we get lucky
and hit the jackpot with SUMO.

[the analyst] 17/1/2008 18:32

We had good numbers for Q3, topgun. Plus, the latest announcement seems to imply that recent prgoress has been good too, because it states that the lead over sites like ITV and Channel 4 has increased.

From 24 October:

*SUMO.tv reports Q3 revenues of #124,000, representing annualised revenue
of #500,000, growing 10% a month - reinforcing the effectiveness of SUMO's
multiple income stream strategy

*SUMO.tv achieves 25% growth in web traffic in Q3 to overtake web rankings
of UK broadcasters Five, ITV and Channel 4 - over 4 million unique users
visit the site each month

"SUMO.tv is also pleased to announce that revenue has more than doubled since May and is currently growing at a rate of 10% a month"

"There was a 25% increase in online traffic in the third quarter, with over 4
million unique users visiting the website each month. Its Alexa web ranking now
exceeds that of national UK broadcasters Five, ITV and Channel 4"


From 15th January:

"SUMO.tv is accessible online at www.sumo.tv and in the UK distributes its own TV channel, SKY channel 144. Its global Alexa web ranking, at 3,702, now considerably exceeds that of national UK broadcasters ITV (ranked at 6,263) and Five (19,078)."


Last year, there was a pre-close statement on Feb 20th, so I would expect one again this year to report on Q4 (Oct-Dec 2007) and current trading since then.

My personal expectations are for excellent trading and revenue increases within the sumo division, but no progress whatsoever in Brazil, where I think they will really focus once they have made the sumo deal (spin-off or whatever they decide on)

[topgunns] 17/1/2008 13:27

Erm, look at the chart. It must be the most bearish on the whole stock market. All the recent news flow is nice but its hard cash numbers we are really waiting for.

At the moment, my concern is that Brazil rankings have fallen again and that there might be another problem there. If i'm wrong about that, there's a good chance of some encouraging earnings numbers. That's when things could turn around.

Every chance of an announcement this year that sends the share price rocketing. The question is how much pain we can take before that comes.